The Best In The Business

This is from the 100r daily tournament the other day.

Its very early, pre ante, pre rebuy and I have a relatively interesting decision.

PokerStars Hand #115476663913: Tournament #901051279, $100+$9 USD Hold'em No Limit - Level II (30/60) - 2014/04/29 18:29:38 CET [2014/04/29 12:29:38 ET]
Table '901051279 5' 9-max Seat #3 is the button
Seat 1: Milana Jones (3401 in chips)
Seat 2: jonaj10 (3910 in chips)
Seat 3: wont be home (8000 in chips)
Seat 5: pads1161 (4304 in chips)
Seat 6: Moorman1 (7370 in chips)
Seat 7: AlexBor72 (3174 in chips)
Seat 8: ThEcLaiMEer (3699 in chips)
Seat 9: good reg (5770 in chips)
pads1161: posts small blind 30
Moorman1: posts big blind 60
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to pads1161 [Ah

]
AlexBor72: folds
ThEcLaiMEer: folds
good reg: raises 72 to 132
Milana Jones: folds
jonaj10: folds
wont be home: folds
pads1161: calls 102
Moorman1: calls 72

I think here its important to understand position a little bit. I dont think its that hes opening less from early position, but I think the main thing is that he is more likely to fight back and defend when in later position. IE I expect him to call pocket pairs when I 3bet vs EP, but when I 3bet vs late position I think I can potentially be defended against with hands like A2s or KTs that maybe wont open or defend from early position.

One of the main leaks from MTT players is playing post flop. Basically they will be very transparent with their sizings, for example they may bet third pot with tptk but 3/4 pot with 2 pair or air. Because of this with AK we have a chance to raise a river bet for value or as a bluff depending on the texture of the board.

On the other side of the coin, we are out of position and will often c/f boards that we can cbet and win on. In summary, when we both have nothing, often I lose, even when my nothing is better than his.

Because of all of this, I think pre flop is close, but calling is better.

*** FLOP *** [

]
pads1161: checks
Moorman1: checks
good reg: bets 205
pads1161: calls 205
Moorman1: folds

On the flop he bets 200 into 400, so a half pot bet. I think players often check back Ax on this texture to induce, especially from moorman and myself, two of the more aggro HSMTT regs. As such, his range should be expected to be pretty polarised with 2 pairs, sets, good draws (i block nfd) and good aces. Becuase its pretty early, I think he can fold AJ for example if I c/r, as I can have a lot of value combos here, and I have moorman behind to consider.

So I make a standard and easy call.

*** TURN *** [

] [

]
pads1161: checks
good reg: bets 420
pads1161: calls 420

On the turn he barrels again. this card looks like it hits my range, but in reality it doesn't. I'd probably just c/f 76s on the flop, I dont have 58s or 75s pre flop.

Still, its way too thin to c/r for value as he may even be checking back some Ax ott that he decided to bet otf with the intention of bluffcatching vs missed fds.

*** RIVER *** [

]

pads1161: checks
mrAndreeew: bets 960
pads1161: raises 2587 to 3547 and is all-in

On the river he goes ahead and bets 960. Now lets look at what he could be betting.

98s (4 combos)
76s (3 combos)
AT (3 combos) ((perhaps discounted due to flop and turn cbet)
44 (3 combos)
66 (3 combos)
77 (3 combos) ((perhaps discounted due to flop cbet)
a4s (2 combos)
a6s (2 combos) ((perhaps discounted due to pre flop)
a7s (2 combos) ((perhaps discounted due to pre flop)
qjdd
98dd
87dd (perhaps checks turn)

So when we get to the river, lets now look at my range for c/raising.

When I get to the river, I would basically never c/r without some kind of blocker this early in an MTT, especially the 100r where the field is small and rebuying is not too attractive.

So basically I need the

in my hand, or possible another diamond.

Lets look at what diamonds I can have?

KdQx no, obviously not
KdxX no, never.
QdKx no, obviously not
QdXx no, never.

So the ONE hand I can have here to be bluffing with, the one single combos out of all the combos I get to the river with is AxKd. I think MTT guys generally think that people 3bet AK pre because they are scared to play post flop without initiative.

So when I jam the river I should basically never be bluffing and I would expect him to potentially call all the flushes he has and fold everything else.

so looking back he should fold 25 combos and call 3 combos.

Lets see what he had..

mrAndreeew: calls 2587

*** SHOW DOWN ***
pads1161: shows [Ah

] (a pair of Aces)
good reg: shows [

As] (a pair of Aces - lower kicker)
pads1161 collected 8740 from pot

wow..