The Best In The Business

[mondatoo]

I haven't really waded in on the debate very much as there are cleverer people than me on here who can explain it much better.

Vaguely remember there was a good thread on here discussing skill/natural ability.

Considering in Football if your 12-13 that's generally considered as old in terms of then getting scouted so there's a window of between 6-11 years old. I find it hard to believe that of the millions of kids between that age there isn't, let's say, one 7 year old called Michael Carrick and one called Joe Bloggs, they have the same type of personality and characteristics, exactly the same skill level, one goes on to be a household name whilst they other works in a button factory.

I choose Michael Carrick specifically because one I believe he himself said he wasn't one of the best in his school, and two I worked with the guy who 1st scouted him, who just so happened to be good friends with his Dad.

Since every single current player has there kid in an academy, ex players will have there kids in, managers/coaches etc etc that doesn't really leave a lot of places for literally millions of other hopefuls.

Will future Lionel Messi's go unnoticed, no, obv, will many Joe Bloggs in this world not get the same chance many average Premiership footballers get who if scouted from the same early age would've been just as good as, yes I have no doubt of that whatsoever.

[horseplayer]

That is probably fair

A good example is Paul Mcshane who now has lots of international caps a fair bit of premiership experience and is regularly ridiculed on twitter e.t.c when he plays.

I have no doubt there are players even in League 2 and possibly the Skrill who have more natural talent than him but he has great application and determination (Was out with an injury usually 4 months but back for cup final within 6 weeks one of many examples.)

[mondatoo]

Just to add to that, nobody should be bemoaning the fact they didn't get something they feel "they deserve".

There's many rich Footballers who are miserable and unhappy just like there are many Joe Bloggs' who are loving life.

Just roll with it, innit!

[redarmi]

There are other 'luck' elements that we don't really have any control of that affect our ability to do certain things well, or more importantly, affect our opportunity.

Pads is a good example.  For example his size means that a lot of scouts and coaches would be less likely to take his seriously and give him a chance at football.  This has nothing to do with his basic skill levels and more to do with the way the game has developed and, in this sense, he was unlucky.  The flip side is that he was born at the perfect time to become an elite level poker player and was in the perfect position to take advantage of it.  If he had been born 10 years earlier and had a mortgage and a couple of kids then he might have had the time to play as much and study at the point when there was so much material for those with the time and inclination to take advantage.  That isn't to denigrate Pads achievements.  Possibly more so than anybody else in the game he has worked hard and dedicated himself to the game and that has paid off handsomely but it is inevitable that there are elements of luck and good fortune in almost any success story which those that have benefitted from it are keen to downplay whilst those at the other end are very aware of.  I think that in 20-30 years time we will see that poker players that were born between 1980 and 1990 become a golden generation that others will struggle to emulate.

[Doobs]

Firstly, if you are lucky enough to be born in Western Europe then you are already massively +EV on life.  

I was far luckier than Pads on my poker timing though.  It was much easier to make money when I started.   This is balanced a bit by the fact there was no real opportunity to make so much money from poker when I was in my prime and before I had family.  Life is full of things that appear to be due to hard work but are dominated by luck.   For instance I have invested in shares for a fairly long period where stock market returns have been dismal.  If I had the same money at the start of the eighties, with average luck I'd have made fortunes.  Same with property, I know people who got saddled with extra property they couldn't sell in the last downturn.  Now you'd think they had exceptional foresight building property empires. I know people who got lucky to be in the right position at the right time job wise.  I am sure people who became Estate Agents just before a house price boom have done far better than those who were equally talented but started the job as the market collapsed and so on.  

None of this takes anything away from Pads, who has made a lot of money at a time where the game seems more difficult than it once was.  He wasn't ever doing that if he was born in Sierra Leone mind.

[mondatoo]

Yeah none of my posts were in anyway an attempt to take anything away from Pads' achievements.

!00% this :

Possibly more so than anybody else in the game he has worked hard and dedicated himself to the game and that has paid off

[pleno1]

The post was about turning down opportunities to play poker. I.e, on a Friday evening my first thoughts are what/when am I grinding tonight, rather than "what times first beers". This in turn helps you make,your own luck as the more you play the more chance you have of binking etc.

Like with Pocarr we have two guys who are very similar ability, one plays 2x a week, one plays 6x a week. The latter will get better quicker, win more because he will play more, but he also has more chances of getting lucky too.

Football wise, I was wayyyy more likely to get scouted than almost any other kid my age. I played for the city boys (newcastle schools) county (Northumberland) a Sunday 11 a side team, a school team, 2 development teams and a bunch of 5aside teams all simultaneously lol. I would just be way more likely to have a good game in a circle where somebody was watching and fancied me.

Take me compared to the kid who just played for his school team, maybe there was only one scout who would be watching u14 school games in that area and just didn't like the guy because he was too small/left footed/whatever else.

By playing in all these different teams I was trying hard and trying to make my own luck. 

[AlunB]

The post was about turning down opportunities to play poker. I.e, on a Friday evening my first thoughts are what/when am I grinding tonight, rather than "what times first beers". This in turn helps you make,your own luck as the more you play the more chance you have of binking etc.

Like with Pocarr we have two guys who are very similar ability, one plays 2x a week, one plays 6x a week. The latter will get better quicker, win more because he will play more, but he also has more chances of getting lucky too.

Football wise, I was wayyyy more likely to get scouted than almost any other kid my age. I played for the city boys (newcastle schools) county (Northumberland) a Sunday 11 a side team, a school team, 2 development teams and a bunch of 5aside teams all simultaneously lol. I would just be way more likely to have a good game in a circle where somebody was watching and fancied me.

Take me compared to the kid who just played for his school team, maybe there was only one scout who would be watching u14 school games in that area and just didn't like the guy because he was too small/left footed/whatever else.

By playing in all these different teams I was trying hard and trying to make my own luck. 

The two things aren't really in conflict though. Say you lived in the deepest countryside outside of Newcastle and your parents didn't want to drive you to training. You only got the chance to play for the school etc etc.

People definitely make a proportion of their own luck in life. The harder you work the luckier you get and all that. But this doesn't also mean there are also huge luck factors we simply don't and can't have any control over.

[mondatoo]

I don't disagree with any of that.

But, there's also cases were there are two poker players; one plays 50 hours a week studys another 10-15 hours on top, plays good but runs bad and loses, gets dropped and can't get another deal, quits, gg. Meanwhile someone else plays 20 hours a week, does no studying, no work on improving, minimal effort put in and runs like god and binks the world then having won chunks then gets to find out in time that they actually aren't that good but has a big monetary cushion so can then start doing the work and improve, or just keep god moding because it's easy.

[pleno1]

I mean people who are in close to identical situations.

Ray mentioned Michael carrick not being the best player in his school.

I definitely wasn't the best poker player in my group of friends.

[pleno1]

Oh yeah absolutely there are countless stories of unjustified or unwarranted luck, I don't think that means you can't make your own luck though.

[AlunB]

I mean people who are in close to identical situations.

Ray mentioned Michael carrick not being the best player in his school.

I definitely wasn't the best poker player in my group of friends.

Yeah fair point. I'd like to think, and hope, that in this instance the rewards go to the person who works the hardest. As you rightly say they give themselves more opportunities to be lucky.

[mondatoo]

Oh yeah absolutely there are countless stories of unjustified or unwarranted luck, I don't think that means you can't make your own luck though.

But you dont make your own luck in the sense that you can do all the right things and it can still go wrong.

Obv you still should do all those right things, it won't guarantee success though, it obv will give you a better chance of achieving what you want.

[pleno1]

i think out of everybody who deserves success in poker over a span of say 2 years, only 5% or so will be "unlucky" but ofc that 5% exists. Theres ofc way more than 5% of people who have been "luckier" than they "should have been".

[Honeybadger]

Great initial post by Patrick. Seems to have sidetracked a little into discussion of luck etc. I have a TON of thoughts on this subject and could write a ten page post. But I am gonna restrict myself to making a few very quick points.

There is obviously luck involved in every area of life. Some of this luck is obvious, mostly it is hidden though. Our lifetime is not enough time for luck to even out.

Many successful people do not recognise the role that luck has played in their success. They say stuff like, "You make your own luck", "I wanted it more than anyone else", "Cream always rises" etc.

The fact that we are even able to spend our time thinking about poker/posting ITT makes us in the top 99th percentile of lucky bastards worldwide. Consider all the poor gits born amidst famine/civil wars etc etc. Luck is not likely to even out in their lifetimes... we are blessed compared to them.

Poker has elements of sport to it. It also has elements of a game to it. But really poker is a form of gambling. It is, in essence, just the same as any other form of gambling, it's about good bets and bad bets - try to make as many good bets as possible, and try to avoid making too many bad bets. It is not really a game or a sport, it is gambling, just like backgammon, sports betting, or stock trading. If you play poker for a living then you are a professional gambler.

For this reason there is a LOT more luck involved in poker than in most other competitive pursuits. Yes, there is luck involved in making it as a pro footballer (even just avoiding a career ending injury is 'lucky'). But there is massively more luck involved in being a successful poker player. Because it is gambling.

The 'best poker poker player in the world' (if that even means anything, and I am not sure it does) has almost certainly run amazingly well lifetime to be able to get into a position to turn himself into the best poker player in the world.

Understanding and accepting this about poker is both hugely important and massively irrelevant all at the same time. It is essential to exercise a kind of 'double-think' regarding variance in poker. On the one hand you recognise it and accept it and are realistic about it. This has the effect of a) keeping you strong/sane when things are going badly and b) keeping you humble when things are going well. On the other hand you should also partly act as if variance does not exist - as if working hard and trying your best is all that matters. Because in effect this is true... since we cannot control luck we need to partly forget about it and focus on the things we CAN control.