The Best In The Business

[Tal]

because he is going to fold a better hand!

It's not quite that simple, though. Play fair.

The river doesn't change a lot, other than being slightly scary for AT. He could have improved to two pair, but if you're specifically deciding he has caught a second pair on the end when bluffing, an explanation as to why you believe he can fold would be instructive.

It's just a really strange line to me that you're taking. If anything, it feels morelike a polarising shove, where you have absolute air or AK. You will get called by hands that lose to AA, which I can understand as a reason for the play, but then it isn't a bluff; it's a double bluff!

[pleno1]

the river changes massively.. it improves my perceived range to AK, he has a lot of hands he will go for value with, QQ,JJ,TT but can never call jam. I have blockers to AK too.

Im obviously representing air or AK but what air can I have on qjtxx?

[mondatoo]

How often would you cb AK here ?

[pleno1]

How often would you cb AK here ?

I would be perceived to check back quite often too. You can see I check back AA here so dont play std ranges in these spots.

[pleno1]

Saturday night feeeeeeeling

$1/$2 Zoom No Limit Holdem 
PokerStars 
6 Players 
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com 
 
Stacks: 
UTG  ($436.24) 218bb 
UTG+1  ($212.88) 106bb 
CO  ($187.32) 94bb 
pleno1 (BTN)  ($527.48) 264bb 
SB  ($258.38) 129bb 
BB  ($200) 100bb 
 
Pre-Flop: ($3, 6 players) pleno1 is BTN : : 
UTG raises to $6, 1 fold, CO calls $6, pleno1 calls $6, 1 fold, BB raises to $28, UTG folds, CO calls $22, pleno1 goes all-in $527.48, BB folds, CO goes all-in $159.32 
 
Flop: :  ($409.64, 2 players, 2 all-in) 
 
Turn: : ($409.64, 2 players, 2 all-in) 
 
River:  ($409.64, 2 players, 2 all-in) 
 
Final Pot: $409.64 
pleno1 shows a pair of Deuces 
: : 
CO shows high card Ace 
: : 
 
pleno1 wins $747 (net +$219.52) 
 
BB lost $28 
UTG lost $6 
CO lost $187.32 

[Tal]

the river changes massively.. it improves my perceived range to AK, he has a lot of hands he will go for value with, QQ,JJ,TT but can never call jam. I have blockI thinrs to AK too.

Im obviously representing air or AK but what air can I have on qjtxx?

This is interesting because I would call your shove most of the time I think with a lot of what I'd call the medium hands (from, say KQ -> QQ) because I just don't believe you have AK all the time (you shouldn't, after all) and it's such a pressurising shove that it feels like a play.

This is amateurish analysis, I know. The point I'm making is, if I give you credit for being a better player (and, crucially, that you believe you are a better player), I should expect you to be bluffing here more than the "correct" amount of the time, because you are putting pressure on a lot of my value bets. This is what good players do, after all and why we mugs hate playing OOP against you.

I am hugely wary of narrowing a range down to one hand and, here, why can't you have decided J9 is still behind on the end when villain leads but that he can't tolerate a shove? You are seemingly saying the same with AA, right?

The more I think about this, the more interesting the hand is. I realise that's the point, but it takes me a while to get there when faced with just a hand history and a one liner.

Feel free to tell me where I'm going wrong in my thinking.

[pleno1]

Youve got to think about combos.

Lets say I 3bet all AK and bet about 25% of them otf, I have 75% AK combos otr.

My bluffing hands need to have an A or an K in them to be good bluffs as they are blockers.

My perceived range doenst have KT, KJ in it. KQ in my percevied range bets the flop.

The most likely hands that I check back are AK, with Jx or Tx I have to be less wary about him c-raising me with a set as I have a blocker and he folds 22-33 pre flop vs the 3bet because of reverse implieds being deep.

On the river, its just very very unlikely Im bluffing, most of the hands that I could bluff with here would be in my perceived betting range otf and they also have some showdown value, further more if I was going to bluff its unlikely that I would choose this sizing, but if I have miraciously just got there and its likely that my opponent has a set its feasible that my perceived action would be to shove all in and hoping to get paid big time. 

Giving the pot odds youre getting and against a strong range like mine calling "most hands" would be a really big mistake and if he did so I would be pretty happy because hes a regular and Id really be able to exploit him in the future.

Even betting the river with KQ itself would be really bad because against my calling range its really going to be behind almost always and is definitely not a profitable bet.

Your point about bad players paying guys off because they get fed up of them is very valid, but I make extensive notes to understand my dynamic and how they are feeling towards me for future value or if Ive shown a huge hand in a big pot a certain way I may immitate the line in the future as a bluff.

In this hand the facts are just

- I have 2 very good blockers
- My perceived range is very strong and nut heavy
- My bluffs are very limited
- Villain is getting a bad price to call
- Villain has to put in a almost 200bbs on the river against a guy who has 3bet pre flop then checked then called (2 passive motions) and then decided to wager 200bbs with his most likely drawing hand that has infact completed

The only reason villain should call river with QQ is for balance reasons, but in villains spot Id absolutely snap fold QQ. If I posted it on PHA as a switcheroo with QQ in villains spot I think almost everybody would want to fold if it was broken down well.

[Tal]

That's annoyingly logical.

[cambridgealex]

You'd never shove AK like this amiright?

[pleno1]

November

Day 2

Day Hands -  3094
Day Profit (inc rb)  - 810
Day VPPS - 1533
Month Hands - 7864
Month Profit (inc rb) - 1439
Month VPPS - 4377

Day Graph

Click to see full-size image.

Such a weird day, I finished the session because I was running bad even though I was 1k over ev haha.

I lost a4s v a5 on a45xss in huge pot where I was certain I was good! Pretty gross then KK v AA 3x which doesnt show in AIEV, won that 22 v 54dd hand and a big fd where I induced AJ dd on 922dd vs 85dd and he bricked his pairs, but wte book the win and move onto tomorrow! Its Sunday of course, not sure what Ill do, either play and sell some % or just play cash games. Hmmmmm, will decide when I wake up and see how I feel.

Got a little sweat in .fr 6max (obv) shootout, won first table and chip leader in 2nd on a great table, I was down to 2.5k starting in 3rd hand, but got 12k vs 3,9,6,7,6 early but maybe we can run it up.



At Ben Dobson, 3094 hands at 200 was 1533 VPPs, so would be 40kish hands I guess.

[pleno1]

You'd never shove AK like this amiright?

urwrong

[pleno1]

hu for last 2 tables, lego!



Seat 3: pleno1 (21113 in chips)
Seat 5: JoJosfamily (23887 in chips)
pleno1: posts the ante 35
JoJosfamily: posts the ante 35
JoJosfamily: posts small blind 150
pleno1: posts big blind 300
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to pleno1 [ ]
JoJosfamily: raises 300 to 600
pleno1: calls 300
*** FLOP *** [td ]
pleno1: checks
JoJosfamily: bets 900
pleno1: raises 1500 to 2400
JoJosfamily: raises 2100 to 4500
pleno1: raises 3600 to 8100
JoJosfamily: folds


edit - gg, kq v 33 aip then axcc v tx on txxcc

gn

[cambridgealex]

You'd never shove AK like this amiright?

urwrong

Well you expect him to never call, so why would you?

In fact, don't reply, this thread is becoming unbearable.

Peace out.

[pleno1]

You'd never shove AK like this amiright?

urwrong

Well you expect him to never call, so why would you?

In fact, don't reply, this thread is becoming unbearable.

Peace out.

But that's the same argument on just calling a 4bet on the river deep in Omaha with the nuts against a reg... Think about it, although its semi complex so I can just say if you like. So we are at least somewhat balanced. Fwiw I didn't understand the PLO thing until deanosupremo schooled me on it in Edinburgh.


Gg anyway no more negative vibes from you is welcomed. But is it unbearable because I post daily updates, big bluffs and spend some time replying free strategy advice to people while giving free rolls (free money away) or is it because I'm winning?

[pleno1]

In some rare non poker news, I found the Silk Road story amazing. Cliffs for those who haven't read all the story(it would make a great movie)

- guy makes websites to help with the distribution and collection of drugs
- many many people use the website to obtain drugs from all around the world
- guy makes hundreds of millions on it
- employee threatens to expose his identity if he doesn't pay x dollars
- owner gets the guy assassinated!
- owner confesses that he has previously assassinated another employee
- he is found running the site from a Starbucks across the road from where he lived


Here is some more details (very very detailed) I'm pretty sure one day this will be a big film there's lots of little things round it ll which make it so interesting. He was made in bit coins and a lot of people say he was one of the big reasons for the bit coin boom and the bitching cruelly crashed substantially on the day the website was taken down.


http://antilop.cc/sr/