ridic price for hamilton for fastest lap

[geordieneil]

lewis hamilton has taken a 5 place drop for gear box change, so will start well off the pace and near impossible to win the race, but betfairs price of fastest lap has to be one of the best "value punts" of the racing calander, currently at 13.5 was 15.5........he is in with a shout of the title so will be pushing the whole race for damage limitation. to any f1 fans in the know, are well aware when the leaders are far in front enough they change their engine settings to protect their engine for the next race so front runners can almost be ruled out for fastest lap (unless its a very tight finish)
   13.5 is excepional value, imho it should be closer to 5.0 or 6.0.......most bookies have him at 11/2......worth a little punt......gl but remember its a "value punt"

[Josedinho]

I'd like to see the stats but I thought front runners win fastest lap most weeks. They turn the engine down near the end of the race so must run at least an hour at full wack. Then they all turn it down to save fuel. The person that gets pole could have clear air in front of hum for most of that time.

[TightEnd]

Not a great bet. Hamilton has had hardly any running this weekend after an early crash and will be in traffic most of the race.

[ACE2M]

don't listen to these mugs mate. i'm on....

[AndrewT]

I'd like to see the stats but I thought front runners win fastest lap most weeks. They turn the engine down near the end of the race so must run at least an hour at full wack. Then they all turn it down to save fuel. The person that gets pole could have clear air in front of hum for most of that time.

There's no refueling though - fastest laps happen at the end of the race when the cars are at their lightest.

[thetank]

Finishing position of fastest lap driver in races 1-15

1st
9th
2nd
2nd (Ham)
crashed in the last few laps (Ham)
2nd
15th
7th
4th
14th
3rd
3rd
1st (Ham)
1st
1st

Might be significant that fastest lap was won by podium finisher in last 5 races. Could saving engine and all that be less of a concern for drivers in the 2nd half of the season?

[77dave]

How about Button for pole at 22.0.

If qualifying is rained out again Button takes pole as world champion and hamilton is 2nd before his grid penalty to 7th.

[geordieneil]

like i said in op  its a "value punt" i took it at 15.5   i posted when it was 13.5 which drifted to 14.0.....  i wake up this morning to check the prices and hamilton has dropped significantly to 9.2.......tyvm i shall green up and use the free bet in running.

   for those with some knowledge of f1 there is a science to fastest lap. choice of tyres being a major factor, those who start on the supersoft u can immideately write off, super softs are often used to gain a lead or to challenge the front row, but with using super soft they will be lucky to last 10 laps as the fuel load of the cars and the track not being rubbered in the tyres are very vunerable.
   the winners of fastest lap are nearly always in the last 10-15 laps of the race and is normally with a lesser team battleing it out for for the minor points positions (UNLESS IT IS A TIGHT FINISH AMONGST THE BETTER TEAMS)

   the reason i am going for hamilton is mainly because to keep with the pack he will be going hell for leather due to his 5 place grid demotion, but like i said its a "value punt"

   anyone who has taken this bet be ready to green off if he gets under 7.0 and keep an eye on any driver that changes to supersoft tyres with 20 or less laps to go.



message for the knockers....i'm in profit already and still have a free bet

[geordieneil]

I'd like to see the stats but I thought front runners win fastest lap most weeks. They turn the engine down near the end of the race so must run at least an hour at full wack. Then they all turn it down to save fuel. The person that gets pole could have clear air in front of hum for most of that time.

  your logic would sound right, but front runners for the 1st hour have full fuel loads (as does every car) and undoubtably will set the fastest laps in the 1st hour, but once they have a sufficient lead they turn the power of their engines down to protect for the the next race(s)   the only time the front runners win fastests laps is when its a tight finish or they have kept their super soft tyres to the final stint. my tip is reliant that hamilton starts on a hard compound tyre and not the super softs.

like i said tho....its a value punt

[geordieneil]

anyone who took the bet lay off NOW....ITS 6.6

[geordieneil]

LOL NOW 5.1

[geordieneil]

4.5 NOW  LAY NOW

[Josedinho]

Wasn't knocking at all but from the looks of Tanks info 10 out of 15 fastest laps have been run by front runners so they can't be ruled out like first suggested.
Glad you managed to lay it off for some profit.

[geordieneil]

Wasn't knocking at all but from the looks of Tanks info 10 out of 15 fastest laps have been run by front runners so they can't be ruled out like first suggested.
Glad you managed to lay it off for some profit.

  the bet was always to lay it off, as for tanks theory if you look at them stats fully they have all been tight finishes like i have suggested in the thread. once the leader has a "unbeatable lead" they turn there engines down. as far as vettel/webber getting the fastest lap in the penultimate lap and final lap this was purely for bragging rights.......hamiltion held it for the majority of the race until he had gear box trouble(no 3rd gear, he was never going to win it as he started on super softs, hence the warnings to lay off) then button held it until the last 2 laps.....button was unable to catch alonso so turned his engine down. no prizes for fastest lap for the drivers
   this seasons f1 there has only been one race where i have not made a profit and that was when vettel and webber fancied a game of dodgems (and i broke even in that race as i had vettel for race winner and pole double and layed off once he won pole)

   btw its nice when 2 of ur best mates are red bull engineers

[Royal Flush]

4.5 NOW  LAY NOW

anyone who took the bet lay off NOW....ITS 6.6

dont think you get punting