AQo OOP to 200nl reg

[Rupert]

can those who want to jam say why plz

[skolsuper]

can those who want to jam say why plz

KQ

[skolsuper]

Don't jam river unless you are trying to fold out an overpair!

So you would only ever jam river with quads or tens full here*, anything else is a bluff?

*I'm assuming you never get to the river in this way with a 7

Its more an issue of balance If your playing this guy alot, its important you have some strong hands in your c/c range. If say you c/r AQ/KQ over 85% of the time, any1 observant will punish you for this and bomb 3streets almost regardless of board texture if there aware. Also this board is a good board to slowpay with very few scarecards ( Hes also likely to bomb cards good for his range but percieved bad for yours. ala the Ace). Given you think hes a TAG bot its unlikely he'll float and once he gets to the river your almost always toast vs some1 like this. The only way you can play this hand and jam river for value i if you have a very aggro/spewy image.

Sorry if it looks like I'm being a dick, posting a hand and then disagreeing with everyone's advice on it (which I appreciate nonetheless), but I couldn't disagree with this more. Firstly, I think any card from 6-K will improve my opponent or kill my market on the turn and river. True he deffo bets the A but that's a relatively small part of the turn's range.
Secondly, I think for metagame purposes it's much more important to depolarise my c/r range than to have AQ in my c/c range. Facing the 3rd barrel how different is AQ to Q2 anyway, and I'm always going to have bluff-catchers in my range so why do I especially need AQ? Also if we're saying 200nl regs are ridic nitty (enough for this to be a c/f on the river vs a typical reg) then they're not gonna 3-barrel bluff us anyway, as I said I'm pretty sure they won't even 3-barrel vbet KQ on the end (which they should if they think I c/r AQ on the flop, so in order to get value from the AQ's I c/c, I need to c/r some of them...)

[maryhadalamb]

Nevermind metagame, you didn't post any history. Fact is, initially he will give your CR "too much" respect. What is his cb% btw? It is therefore a waste to do it w/ AQ in this spot, we may as well have a hand like AJ. Balancing your range or w/e is irrelevant, he a weak TAG, he's betting a polarised range in this spot without history and a c/c is the best play. If 1) you have punished him for this, and CR'd him with abandon before, and 2) he has adapted by implemented a polarised cb range with the intention of calling a CR (the correct way to adapt) your play is ok. However, as he hasn't you ameliorate his fit or fold policy by CR'ing here, you need to be taking exploitative lines until  given a reason not to.

[skolsuper]

Nevermind metagame, you didn't post any history. Fact is, initially he will give your CR "too much" respect. What is his cb% btw? It is therefore a waste to do it w/ AQ in this spot, we may as well have a hand like AJ. Balancing your range or w/e is irrelevant, he a weak TAG, he's betting a polarised range in this spot without history and a c/c is the best play. If 1) you have punished him for this, and CR'd him with abandon before, and 2) he has adapted by implemented a polarised cb range with the intention of calling a CR (the correct way to adapt) your play is ok. However, as he hasn't you ameliorate his fit or fold policy by CR'ing here, you need to be taking exploitative lines until  given a reason not to.

Flop cbet: 72%.
turn: 47
river: 50

I check raise the flop to get value from worse queens, KJ J9 89, maybe AK AJ, even AT. I bet the turn to get value from the same range. Do you not think I would miss out on a lot of value from these hands (none of which bet 3 streets) by check-calling twice? And then on the river I'm check-folding? I get you're saying I lose value from the weak queens+tens that fold the flop, but he probably pot-controls these on the turn anyway, so I end up just giving 2 free cards to 3 and 5 outers. Unless you think he barrels off all the time and I should be check-calling 3 streets.

[Rupert]

From my experience at 1/2 cash in recent months i'd say c/r the flop is absolutely fine and better than c/c.  However on the river I doubt you get value from KQ much of the time, and even if you do that's probably not enough to value jam when he sometimes calls the one rank below you (when we have blockers) and can quite easily have a lot of better hands.  I also think he sometimes folds KJ type hands on the turn etc, I mean you did c/r the flop and barrel the turn - you get a lot of one barrel bluff artists at 1/2 who just c/r the flop and give up if it's a bad turn and although this one hits a lot of turned draws etc, I don't think he's just going to float you meaninglessly, i'd say he's far more likely to jam if he wants to bluff whether it's good or not is another matter

[AlexMartin]

end of the day this is very dependant on your style, if its laggier then its a clear jam, deffo not just to town KQ but also JJ and AT/K10 which could deffo call you down here given board texture and your action (for all the balancing reasons described above). If you are generally an inline run of the mill reg, 8+tabling and not trying to fight super hard for every pot (80% of regs then) then c/f is fine. Playing 28/22 with a very high aggression against a villain that is getting hammered this session-  jam gets my vote all day.

[pleno1]

if you put yourself in opponents shoes and its checked to you in position on this river and you have AQ with same flop/turn action, checking behind?

[DMorgan]

Only read the OP but definitely betting, probably just over half pot to get a crying call from weaker Qx hands

Edit: vs this villain I think I prefer a check. We can only really check or jam and from the reads given he doesn't seem spazzy enough to call it off with worse enough of the time to make shoving better than checking. We get to see his hand too.

[skolsuper]

if you put yourself in opponents shoes and its checked to you in position on this river and you have AQ with same flop/turn action, checking behind?

Yeah for sure. I would expect to win 99% of the time but there's no value at all in betting.

[pleno1]

if you put yourself in opponents shoes and its checked to you in position on this river and you have AQ with same flop/turn action, checking behind?

Yeah for sure. I would expect to win 99% of the time but there's no value at all in betting.

If there's not value at all in betting then why are we? Is it not better to check behind as we are never getting called and making a note on oppo?

[skolsuper]

if you put yourself in opponents shoes and its checked to you in position on this river and you have AQ with same flop/turn action, checking behind?

Yeah for sure. I would expect to win 99% of the time but there's no value at all in betting.

If there's not value at all in betting then why are we? Is it not better to check behind as we are never getting called and making a note on oppo?

I did wonder if that's what you meant by your question. If your perception of poker is that there is a line in the sand on each board where some hands are worth betting and some aren't, for either player, then you really need to go back to the drawing board. It's a totally different situation for each player here, the question of what to do with AQ on this board facing a c/r, barrel, check really ought to be in a different thread.

For our part, we're betting because he has a decent amount of weak 1 pairs in his range. Depending on whether he knows we know this he might feel that this is the greater part of his range and he will be getting bluffed so will call with these, as Alex said we could end up finding hero calls from JJ/AT here. That's the idea anyway..

[EvilPie]

With or without reads I'm betting this 100% of the time just based on the action.

He's called 2 streets so he's probably calling the river as well.

With the read that he doesn't v bet light at all we lose tons of value by checking to him because he's checking back loads of hands that pay us off, KQ being the most obvious one.

Obviously we're not deep anough to consider folding here now we've got to the river so it's a case of how best to get his chips in the middle.

After he's called 2 decent sized bets on flop and turn checking now doesn't seem the best way to achieve this.

[pleno1]

results?

[skolsuper]

results?

He snap-folded. If he'd tank folded, this thread probably wouldn't exist. I think it's been a constructive discussion though, I've definitely learned some stuff, most notably the meaning of the word 'ameliorate'.