ok, Im generally bad at Maths, and this stuff blows my brain + I'm hungover, but I've got a ton of history with 2/3 villians I an deduce their range's pretty accuratley Imo
JapaneseMind. Got lots of hands with him, he's reasonaly active for the most part but pretty solid with it. His CO 3et % is 12%, however in this hand the original opener is clearly a fish, so it's reasonable he's is opening slighty wider, so we can give him a 3et range here of top ~15% imo. Once it's been peeled twice and 4bet, JapaneseMind 5balls AAxx everytime, and he clearly ISNT going to fold pre. It looks as well like 0434 has an AAxx combo so his range leads towards braodway rundowns, higher rundowns (I dont think this player will 3ball lowdowns below 5678 as often) he is unlikely to have mainly broadway pair hands unless they are exceptionally strong. KKQT etc, but as the action's opener these are less likely imo.
BigAce has a much wider range. Lower rundowns I would imagine make up the most feasible part of his range, but he can defo have strong KKxx's and good double paired hands.
I think we have to assume that 0434 has AAxx. I'm shocked if he wakes up with anything else. We can also be kinda sure no-one else has AAxx combo's
Obv peeling the 3ball is super standard, then after the 4bet and JM has peeled there is $258 in the pot. We're left to call $86.
Lets assume bigace will fold, which he might, but probs wont (we'll takle that in a minute), also I know this is wild ut Im going to assume for the time being we hae a live suit here are a few Sims
Omaha Hi Simulation What's this?
600,000 trials (Randomized)
Hand Equity Wins Ties
8c9h8s9s 31.73% 190,203 362AhA** 36.91% 220,548 1,780
KcQcJdTd 31.36% 187,469 1,418
Omaha Hi Simulation What's this?
600,000 trials (Randomized)
Hand Equity Wins Ties
8c9h8s9s 26.18% 156,763 676
AhA** 44.66% 267,358 1,150
QcJcTd9d 29.16% 174,171 1,597
#1 of these is our best case scenario and #2 is about the worst, between the two we had 28.96% equity. So without delving further into maths Im not capable of, if BigAce folds 100% of the time, we can find profit in peeling.
Now on the flop the pot is $344 and we're going to be calling off either $108 or $93 which we will leave us needing 19% equity to stack off (slightly less vs 0434) and as you can see on these graphs in #1 we'll flop the required equity ~65% of the time, and in #2 ~50% of the time. This is again assuming that we're facing only one villain.
So if we're calling pre we need to flop enough equity to stack off approx 16% of the time (86 / (potpre(344)+108(villian shove)*100)
So ~57.5% of the time we'll flop enough equity s these ranges on average to stack off.
Now lets assume BigAce CALLs as well.
Now the pot we're calling $86 into is $344. So we need ~20% 4way to show a profit.
Omaha Hi Simulation What's this?
600,000 trials (Randomized)
Hand Equity Wins Ties
8c9h8s9s 18.14% 107,955 1,734
AhA** 32.21% 191,994 2,563
QcJcTd9d 28.63% 170,948 1,712
5678 21.02% 124,865 2,486
Omaha Hi Simulation What's this?
600,000 trials (Randomized)
Hand Equity Wins Ties
8c9h8s9s 22.25% 132,652 1,754
AhA** 25.43% 150,961 3,201
KdQcJcTd 32.13% 191,781 1,949
5678 20.19% 119,810 2,718
Omaha Hi Simulation What's this?
600,000 trials (Randomized)
Hand Equity Wins Ties
8c9h8s9s 30.07% 180,199 452
AhA** 38.36% 229,797 863
KdQcJcTd 18.75% 98,345 28,420
KKJT 12.81% 62,787 28,242
Omaha Hi Simulation What's this?
600,000 trials (Randomized)
Hand Equity Wins Ties
8c9h8s9s 22.17% 132,755 572
AhA** 38.21% 228,897 780
QcJcTd9d 20.25% 114,968 13,085
KKJT 19.37% 110,003 12,523
Our average equity over these 4 sims is 23.16% so again, we're going to show a slight profit on calling this pre even with BigAce in the hand.
If BigAce was to shoe we'd be left to call $108 into $722 needing 13% so as we said that isn't a worry.
4way on the flop we'll have a pot of $430 with again max $108 to call off and we'll need ~16% equity, which running off the equity graphs (i wont post em cos otherwise this will go over 3 pages lol) we should be doing 48.5% of the time.
again, if we're calling pre we need to flop enough equity 18.7% of the time, so we can clearly show a profit by just calling pre.
The interesting discussion is whether we should be Jamming over the 4ball or peeling.
If we Assume BigAce folds whe we jam and 0434 and JM never fold, then we're jamming $194 into $653pot leaes us needing 29% equity. We had 28.96% so it's basically a break-even play.
If we assume BigAce will call, the we're calling $194 to a pot of $832 and we needing 23.31%. and we have 23.16%.
So again we breakeven by Jamming, and show roughly 3% profit by calling assuming we need to be able to play perfectly postflop.
I think given all this the most optimal line is to fold to the 4bet, I think with such tight equities we're not showing enough profit through any line to justify the variance, as Cos says though its a cool Gamble.
Here is what actually happened...
lildavefish calls [$86.00 USD]
bigace223 raises [$179.00 USD]
0434 calls [$93.00 USD]
JapaneseMind calls [$15.35 USD]
lildavefish calls [$108.35 USD]
lildavefish shows [
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]
bigace223 shows [
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]
0434 shows [
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]
JapaneseMind shows [
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]
lildavefish wins $0.85 USD
** Dealing Flop ** [
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]
** Dealing Turn ** [
]
** Dealing River ** [
]
JapaneseMind wins $30.70 USD from main pot
0434 wins $799.00 USD from main pot
lildavefish raises [$195.20 USD]
bigace223 calls [$179.00 USD]
0434 calls [$93.00 USD]
JapaneseMind calls [$108.35 USD]
lildavefish shows [
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]
bigace223 shows [
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]
0434 shows [
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]
JapaneseMind shows [
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]
lildavefish wins $0.85 USD
** Dealing Flop ** [
,
,
]
** Dealing Turn ** [
]
** Dealing River ** [
]
JapaneseMind wins $30.70 USD from main pot
0434 wins $799.00 USD from main pot
So bizzarely 0434 didn't have AAxx. I didn't know this at the time but he was 4betting 29% over 377 hands. Given that we know getting it in 3/4 way is just below breakeven, and given as well that his 4betting range include a much wider range than AAxx combo's its clearly a fold pre, even to the 3bet from JM.
So I dont hate cold calling the 3bet, but with the info I have now it's defo a mistake, as is calling the 4bet.
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