no blackpool 0-0 in the prem this season?? what price do u think is fair

[geordieneil]

watching the GUKPT steam on awop, i got involved in a conversation about SKYBET's offer of this bet.

blackpool to have NO 0-0 draws in the prem this season, with 26 games remaining. skybet have offered 7/2, which i think is a bit short. although i do think there is a reasonable chance.
 what would you think is a fair price?

[George2Loose]

lol he asked paul jackson who offered 66/1

[redarmi]

66/1 is massive value.  The goals in their games are normally in for between 2.75 and 3.  If we assume that because they will play MU, Chelsea etc and the goals will be higher in those games that on average they are a goal underdog and total goals are 3 in all their games then they are 18-1 in every game to be 0-0  and they have 26 games left so 1.055555 to the power of 26 is  4.08 so a shade over 3-1.  Teams do regress to the mean in terms of goals but even so 7/2 looks okay to me never mind 66/1!!!!

[geordieneil]

lol he asked paul jackson who offered 66/1

  yeah there was 2 who said it should of been 66/1...other quote i heard ....jon kalmar said evens. others ranged from 5/2 to 16's.... i tried to do the maths on it and thought anything over 4/1 was decent price,   on an average team its worked out at something like 14/1, based on games left average 0-0's per season.
   but blackpool are less likely to be involved ina 0-0 that say arsenal or chelsea, they have no choice but to throw caution to the wind and go for wins every game, quite simply because they are not strong enough to play for a bore draw( no disrespect to blackpool fans) , but "going for it" leaves them a a little vulnerable at the back, but they have proved more than capable of scoring a few, and i just can't pick out a game where it could be 0-0.
   a few stats i found. blackpool have not had a 0-0 for 30 games 5 home games 19 goals scored, 7 away games 26 goals scored....... all summed up that 7/2 doesn't look so stringy

[The Camel]

The price which pooped into my head when I saw this thread was 2/1.

I certainly wouldn't offer 7/2.

[geordieneil]

The price which pooped into my head when I saw this thread was 2/1.

I certainly wouldn't offer 7/2.

cheers keith, e1 repects ur opinion on bets/prices and you have just made me feel more confident. i did take a bet with someone last night for more than 7/2......so no 0-0's blackpool please, i need that money to celebrate newcastle end of season triumph of making the top half

[Dubai]

The maths works out somewhere between 5-1 and 5.8-1. If we allow for the fact that 0-0 would increase slightly in price if they continue to go without one, then id say 4.5-1 is the lowest price id ever consider taking. And it aint really value

Its just their average price for 0-0 to the power of 26 btw. Even if their average price was 20-1 for 0-0 the price would then be 5-2. And no team in history has an average 0-0 sp of 20-1. The highest il accept their average 0-0 sp is at the moment would be 14-1, that comes to bang on 5-1 for the season. So dont get carried away by your instincts, the 7-2 is on low side, and anything lower is just burning ev


Edit! Hadnt read Redarmis post

[ACE2M]

how balla is paul jackson? lets see if he'll lay a grand at 66/1.....

[Dubai]

how balla is paul jackson? lets see if he'll lay a grand at 66/1.....

Im sure he'l lay it nps. Gl getting paid tho lol

[The Camel]

The maths works out somewhere between 5-1 and 5.8-1. If we allow for the fact that 0-0 would increase slightly in price if they continue to go without one, then id say 4.5-1 is the lowest price id ever consider taking. And it aint really value

Its just their average price for 0-0 to the power of 26 btw. Even if their average price was 20-1 for 0-0 the price would then be 5-2. And no team in history has an average 0-0 sp of 20-1. The highest il accept their average 0-0 sp is at the moment would be 14-1, that comes to bang on 5-1 for the season. So dont get carried away by your instincts, the 7-2 is on low side, and anything lower is just burning ev


Edit! Hadnt read Redarmis post

This a is a good post. Regardless I'll have a 1000 to 250 if you want to lay it.

[Dubai]

Well il have to otherwise id be a hypocrite. So yes ur on.

[sovietsong]

Well il have to otherwise id be a hypocrite. So yes ur on.

I don't think I respect anybody more than you for making and taking bets on here. You are my hero.

[The Camel]

Well il have to otherwise id be a hypocrite. So yes ur on.

booked.

[scotty2hatty]

What price now?

[SammyA]

MBN to be Camel - Nice Bink Keith