Real starting hand win rate data

[CardTrainer]

In some early hand history data analysis experiments dealing with about 1/4 million IRC “no robot holdem” hands played by a couple thousand players from 1988 to 2000, I measured the actual starting hand win rates vs the calculated win odds charts we all consult.

The differences from the calculated odds charts we all consult, reflect player decision making, not some chart calculation error. Crummy looking starting hands actually actually won 1/2 as often as statistics say they should.

The lesson learned, players invest more heavily in favorable hands and give up a little too easily on lower odds starting hands.  I suspect live pro players do better with low hands.

Click to see full-size image.

Hand #1 is A-A, #169 is 7-2 off suit

[Longines]

Not sure that a small sample size of ten year old data on play money tables is all that relevant to today's game but interesting nonetheless. Were you playing poker on IRC at the time?

[Rupert]

what are standing hand odds?

[Longines]

Looking at the graph I would suggest it's the odds of the hand winning after a 10-way river showdown.

[outragous76]

 JdWas this a new account at the start and have you factored in the run good for the first 1000 hands?

[gatso]

why isn't the bit where the red and blue lines cross purple?

[AlexMartin]

is this referring to gto? i assume it is, in which case, yeah live pro's would do really well....

[SuuPRlim]

The differences from the calculated odds charts we all consult, reflect player decision making, not some chart calculation error. Crummy looking starting hands actually actually won 1/2 as often as statistics say they should.

The lesson learned, players invest more heavily in favorable hands and give up a little too easily on lower odds starting hands.  I suspect live pro players do better with low hands.

** apologies in advance is this is a bit ranting but im hugely tilted today***

Who learnt this lesson?
What is a low hand?
and....wtf?

[AlexMartin]

The differences from the calculated odds charts we all consult, reflect player decision making, not some chart calculation error. Crummy looking starting hands actually actually won 1/2 as often as statistics say they should.

The lesson learned, players invest more heavily in favorable hands and give up a little too easily on lower odds starting hands.  I suspect live pro players do better with low hands.

** apologies in advance is this is a bit ranting but im hugely tilted today***

Who learnt this lesson?
What is a low hand?
and....wtf?

i think hes being incredibly shrewd. basically, play more shit and dont fold. if only cardrunners would drop a vid series on this gem.

[AndrewT]

Er, you all do realise OP is just a spammer, don't you?

[SuuPRlim]

Er, you all do realise OP is just a spammer, don't you?

omg wat a terrible day