Epitomised Stakeaments

[MC]

(OP Amended to reflect current situation)

Schedule:
All games to be played on PokerStars

6.00am $109 Turbo ($30k gtd)
6.30am $55 Turbo ($12k gtd)
7.30am $109 Turbo ($15k gtd)
8.00am $51 Hyper Turbo ($2k gtd)
9.00am $109 Turbo ($15k gtd)
10.30am $25 Hyper Turbo ($2k gtd)
1.00pm $109 Turbo ($5k gtd)

Will also include any other turbo or hyper-turbo MTT of entry fee $25-$109 at my discretion.

Bankroll:
$6k.

% cut:
50:50, after stake-back, with make-up.

FPPs not included.

Shares:
At the end of each month, there will be a reinvestment period.

If bankroll is above $6k: Shares will be paid out to all investors. There will be an option to opt-out of your investment.

If bankroll is below $6k: The bankroll will roll over to the next month. If this occurs 2 months in a row, investors may choose to opt-out (some advanced warning required)

Make-up:
If we go busto: All investors will be owed the amount they invested in make-up. I will run another stake immediately after going busto.

Example 1:
You invest $600 (10%) in the 1st stake and it goes busto. You then invest another $600 in the 2nd stake. At the end of the 1st month in the 2nd stake:

If the bankroll is $12,000. You receive $300 in profits and $300 of make-up, and are still owed $300 in make up ... (you also are owed the $600 you invested)
If the bankroll is $18,000. You receive $600 in profits and $600 of make-up (all make-up is cleared) ... (you also are owed the $600 you invested)

Example 2:
You invest $600 (10%) in the 1st stake and it goes busto. You then invest $300 (5%) in the 2nd stake. In doing so you are only eligible to clear $300 of make-up owed to you. At the end of the 1st month in the 2nd stake:

If the bankroll is $12,000. You receive $150 in profits and $150 of make-up ... (you also are owed the $300 you invested)
If the bankroll is $24,000. You receive $450 in profits and $300 in make-up ... (you also are owed the $300 you invested)

Why you should invest:
The turbo fields at these times of day should be very soft. This has the potential to be very lucrative. I am one of the best MTT SNG turbo regs on PokerStars based on profit over the last 18-months. These MTTs will play pretty similar to 180-man MTT SNGs which I have a good record in. I will be able to put in a ton of volume as I will be playing on a majority of days available to me.

Why you shouldn't invest:
The variance is going to be potentially brutal. There is very reasonable chance of the stake going busto, so I would advise being prepared to invest twice. You must be comfortable with me playing these games alongside my own SNG grind.

Investment:
5% = $300
10% = $600

25% - Rupert - Paid
10% - the sicilian Paid
10% - AlexMartin "Paid"
10% - Simon Galloway - Paid
10% - skolsuper - Paid
10% - titaniumbean - Paid
10% - MC - Paid
5% - Sack it off - Paid
5% - Longy - Paid
5% - Mondatoo - Paid

1st Reserve - Greekstein
2nd Reserve - Rupert

[T_Mar]

what kind of ROI you think you can achieve mate over a decent sample?

..also, what would would happen if someone withdrew their stake, and you couldn't find a replacement? Reduced roll would mean greater chance of going bust - or would you put play on hold until stake was replenished?

soz if these are shite questions, i am potentially interested

[Dubai]

From variance perspective what % of times do you expect the 6k to bust? What % of times do you expect the 2nd reload to bust? Base it on an expected 5-10% roi i guess. Just wondering how likely we would have to fire the 3rd and maybe 4th bullet etc

[Sack it off]

From variance perspective what % of times do you expect the 6k to bust? What % of times do you expect the 2nd reload to bust? Base it on an expected 5-10% roi i guess. Just wondering how likely we would have to fire the 3rd and maybe 4th bullet etc

Think these are v fair questions, to be able to gauge the amount to invest knowing how likely I am going to need to recur my investment

[MC]

Yeah totally fair questions.

ROI is a tough one. MI_Turtle seems like the best gauge at 42% ROI over ~800 games in $109 turbos. He is a SNG turbo grinder like me and has the best sample. I have ~30% ROI at 180-mans but I think these MTTs have higher fish:reg ratio. I think we're shooting for somewhere between 25-75% in the normal turbos. In the 18-mans I'm shooting for somewhere in the 5-15% range. Hyper-turbos were only introduced recently I guess 10-20% might be more realistic for those, but the fact they only have 2% rake might mean that is a conservative estimate.

If I couldn't find a replacement for someone withdrawing their stake I would buy the piece myself if it was a smaller chunk, even if only temporarily. If it was a bigger chunk I think waiting perhaps best option, because it's not like I can drop stakes to make up for a smaller roll.

Dubai, will try my best to answer. $6k is ~70 buy-ins. I think 50 buy-in swings have to be considered pretty standard. 100 buy-in swings happen. 150+ buy-ins are rare but feasible. I think 1st bullet will bust before making a return perhaps 20% of the time. 2nd bullet perhaps 5%. 3rd or more I would really hope is <1%.

Am happy for anyone to contribute to any of these thoughts.

Enclosed is my 180-man graph if that helps at all.

[Rupert]

If the bankroll is $18,000. You receive $600 in profits and $600 of make-up (all make-up is cleared)

So we've put in $1200 and got out $1200 yet you are up $6k over the 2 stakes?  I think you missed out that we get our original stake back which is $600 also but then that leaves you with nothing on a $6k profit. I think profit splitting should always come last, so makeup, stakeback then profit split = $600 + $600 + $300 each.  (i'm sure this was more of an oversight than anything else unless i'm missing something)

[paulhouk03]

Gl with this
Sorry but I can't take any %age as I have done my bolloxs staking Ppl.

[skolsuper]

Yeah agree with Rupert that you're doing things a bit about-face wrt makeup. In another example you say that if someone invested $600 for 10% twice and then the bankroll grows to $12k (i.e. breakeven) then they'd only get $900 back. What I think maybe you've done is only start counting makeup after it is lost and forgotten about stakeback in your examples.

If the deal is as I think it is and how you've described it, but not like it is in the examples, I'll take 10% please. I would take more but it's recently dawned on me how much Australia is going to cost.

[AlexMartin]

Yeah agree with Rupert that you're doing things a bit about-face wrt makeup. In another example you say that if someone invested $600 for 10% twice and then the bankroll grows to $12k (i.e. breakeven) then they'd only get $900 back. What I think maybe you've done is only start counting makeup after it is lost and forgotten about stakeback in your examples.

If the deal is as I think it is and how you've described it, but not like it is in the examples, I'll take 10% please. I would take more but it's recently dawned on me how much Australia is going to cost.

tought life, get the violins out.

[SuuPRlim]

Yeah agree with Rupert that you're doing things a bit about-face wrt makeup. In another example you say that if someone invested $600 for 10% twice and then the bankroll grows to $12k (i.e. breakeven) then they'd only get $900 back. What I think maybe you've done is only start counting makeup after it is lost and forgotten about stakeback in your examples.

If the deal is as I think it is and how you've described it, but not like it is in the examples, I'll take 10% please. I would take more but it's recently dawned on me how much Australia is going to cost.

tought life, get the violins out.

 

[the sicilian]

pm sent

[MC]

If the bankroll is $18,000. You receive $600 in profits and $600 of make-up (all make-up is cleared)

So we've put in $1200 and got out $1200 yet you are up $6k over the 2 stakes?  I think you missed out that we get our original stake back which is $600 also but then that leaves you with nothing on a $6k profit. I think profit splitting should always come last, so makeup, stakeback then profit split = $600 + $600 + $300 each.  (i'm sure this was more of an oversight than anything else unless i'm missing something)

Sorry if I was unclear, when I wrote that I was presuming that the backer wasn't withdrawing from the stake and still had their money invested following on to the next month.

Stakeback is definitely included, otherwise this would be a pretty terrible proposal!

[Rupert]

Cool thought that'd be the case i'll take 25% please

[MC]

Cool thought that'd be the case i'll take 25% please

Balla! (ty)

[titaniumbean]

I'll take 10% if you have any left MC.