Prose from a Poshboy

[cambridgealex]

also dude just always imagine your the bottom line in variance simulations......

http://www.evplusplus.com/poker_tools/variance_simulator/

my stats for .50/1 are like £30/100 hands no idea what standard deviation would be. what do i input beanie?  

[SuuPRlim]

I just did mine and apparently I suck?

sigh

[George2Loose]

Have you thought about getting a job?

[cambridgealex]

Have you thought about getting a job?

lol wp

[smashedagain]

Have you thought about getting a job?

lol wp

is he talking to you or dave?

[cambridgealex]

also dude just always imagine your the bottom line in variance simulations......

http://www.evplusplus.com/poker_tools/variance_simulator/

my stats for .50/1 are like £30/100 hands no idea what standard deviation would be. what do i input beanie?  

this is a really good tool beanie cheers, helps keep things in persepective. although I have no idea what standard deviation to use and that seems to have the biggest effect on the results. On my results tracking website it lists my "earnings std" as £302 and "win rate sd" as £92/hour.

[Cf]

also dude just always imagine your the bottom line in variance simulations......

http://www.evplusplus.com/poker_tools/variance_simulator/

my stats for .50/1 are like £30/100 hands no idea what standard deviation would be. what do i input beanie? 

This graph thing is really interesting to look at. But the main question it raises to me is: "how reliable is your assumption of £30/100?". If there's one thing the graph is designed to show it's how much variance can make a difference. I'm not saying you're not a good player or anything but it is always possible that assuming £30/100 isn't correct, in either direction.

I had a play with it. I put sd at 100 as he states it's generally between 80-120 for NL players. I then assumed playing .5/1 at DTD you'd get 30 hands in per hour (which is probably wrong but let's go with it). Then assuming 40 hours per week and 45 working weeks I got the following figures...

£30/100
Highest: +£24,000
Expected: +£16,000
Lowest: +£8,000

£20/100
Highest: +£18,000
Expected: +£11,000
Lowest: +£3,000

£10/100
Highest: +£12,000
Expected: +£6,000
Lowest: -£1,000

Let's assume you're better than £30/100...

£50/100
Highest: +£35,000
Expected: +£29,000
Lowest: +£20,000

So to me it seems the biggest factor is the win rate (obviously). But the whole point of this variance malarky is to show how big the swings can be. So actually calculating your win rate in the first place is plagued by this issue. Look at the £20/100 example. There's a £15,000 swing here. If you're basing your win rate on either extreme here then it's way off.

Quite an interesting tool

[cambridgealex]

Yes it's a great tool. All I have to go by is my records, which are accurate, which is over I think 560hours of play. 30hands an hour is correct. It's more like 35 at DTD and 25 at Gala and I've split my time about 50/50 to date so 30 is accurate too. So that's about 16k hands. Not massive but a reasonable indicator. I feel over the sample I've ran probs a bit below EV but not majorly. So that's all I have to go on. I would very much doubt it's below 20/100 or above 40 so we have decent data to run a simulation.

So STD deviation is between 80-120? This same for live? Or makes no difference? I'm not entirely sure what standard deviation is tbh. Average amount results deviate from a mean right?

[titaniumbean]

yeah it's the avg spreads of your results.

just underestimate rather than be bullish with all your figures. and try and think just how stupidly large the variance in poker can be.

Kinboshi won a deepstack ffs
also 16k hands is nothing! that's like a lazy msnl cash grinders month!

[Cf]

It's basically trying to work out how much variance there is in the data you're using to calculate your win rate. So if you logged 100 sessions and each was +£30 then your var/sd (they're to all intents and purposes the same thing, sd is the sqroot of var) would be 0. When some sessions start recording more/less than the average then your sd increases. The bigger the differences the bigger your sd.

He just states that for NL players it's usually between 80-120. So just go with 100.

So run yourself a simulation of: x hands (i did 54,000 based on my figures earlier), 30bb/100, 1000 trials, sd 100.

I find the other graphs about downswings and break even patches interesting too. It's basically saying they WILL happen. It's pretty much statisically certain they will happen.

So if you have a low roll you have to avoid one of those downswings whilst your roll is low. Then I guess you need to move up stakes as £16,000 expected a year isn't brilliant.

[Cf]

But you know... thinking about it i'd be tempted to say playing live cash you might want to go for a higher sd. I imagine a DTD .5/1 game is much more swingy than an equivilent online game. Setting it to 120 with the above paramaters gives £25,000/£16,000/£7,000. In itself not a big difference. But the main difference is if you look at the graph you're much more likely to spend time at the beginning below £0 for quite some time.

Anyway, that's enough plotting graphs for me for one night

[SuuPRlim]

also 16k hands is nothing! that's like a lazy msnl cash grinders month!

In 530 hours I reckon I'd play about 1.5million hands. Just to put the volume into context :p

[titaniumbean]

also 16k hands is nothing! that's like a lazy msnl cash grinders month!

In 530 hours I reckon I'd play about 1.5million hands. Just to put the volume into context :p

back in the day when I first bought a computer specifically for poker and started ramping up the no of tables I played 25k hands at fullring in a day...... lol liveaments!

[SuuPRlim]

also 16k hands is nothing! that's like a lazy msnl cash grinders month!

In 530 hours I reckon I'd play about 1.5million hands. Just to put the volume into context :p

back in the day when I first bought a computer specifically for poker and started ramping up the no of tables I played 25k hands at fullring in a day...... lol liveaments!

[ ] you must have had a lovely life mate

[titaniumbean]

[  ]  i'm cool


oh hi der totp!