Prose from a Poshboy

[Mitch]

My true feelings about Alex



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[CHIPPYMAN]

I told u he's a w***!

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Best mate ehhh

[0800]

Wow I'm out.

Open cutoff to 5100 at 1200/2400, btn makes it 11200, I'm playing 98k so make it 23200 to snap a jam. He peels.

there's like 52k in there, I bet 18k he shoves I call off 57k more and lose to . Gutted obviously. Was about 400 off the money.

Interested in your exit hand and your thinking in it if it isn't too raw.  Specfically, what range do you assign to him when he shoves?  What was the tabe dynamic like and your image and what was your perception of villain?  At what point do ICM considerations come into play and we start to put a premium on our tournament life?

Yeah, the 57k call mystifies me...

[pleno1]

hes peeled a 4bet with 52cc in the main event close to the money, hes absolutely peeling 89, 68, 64, 63. every single heart flush draw combo, ever single 7x connected suited combo including probably q7s and all of the back door diamonds he might go with.

think we absolutely should go with the hand, even if we give him 99, 88 kind of hands, that he has prettz rarely were getting the right price

[redarmi]

hes peeled a 4bet with 52cc in the main event close to the money, hes absolutely peeling 89, 68, 64, 63. every single heart flush draw combo, ever single 7x connected suited combo including probably q7s and all of the back door diamonds he might go with.

think we absolutely should go with the hand, even if we give him 99, 88 kind of hands, that he has prettz rarely were getting the right price

This is absolutely ridiculous thinking mate.  We don't know he has peeled 52cc until after the hand hence the questions about his image and his perception of villain.  We can only make assessments during the hand based on what we know he has done previously not what his cards are right now!!!!

[pleno1]

yeh youre right.

[PeeJay]

yeh youre right.

[rfgqqabc]

hes peeled a 4bet with 52cc in the main event close to the money, hes absolutely peeling 89, 68, 64, 63. every single heart flush draw combo, ever single 7x connected suited combo including probably q7s and all of the back door diamonds he might go with.

think we absolutely should go with the hand, even if we give him 99, 88 kind of hands, that he has prettz rarely were getting the right price

This is key and while not ideal obviously sometimes you have to wager those chips. I'm presuming he knew the guy liked to get a bit fruity now and again which makes some bajunki stuff more than possible never mind things like AQ or 22 or K6o

[redarmi]

hes peeled a 4bet with 52cc in the main event close to the money, hes absolutely peeling 89, 68, 64, 63. every single heart flush draw combo, ever single 7x connected suited combo including probably q7s and all of the back door diamonds he might go with.

think we absolutely should go with the hand, even if we give him 99, 88 kind of hands, that he has prettz rarely were getting the right price

This is key and while not ideal obviously sometimes you have to wager those chips. I'm presuming he knew the guy liked to get a bit fruity now and again which makes some bajunki stuff more than possible never mind things like AQ or 22 or K6o

This is the bit I don't get and was why I posted.  You guys are better players than me but I don't see how this is the right price.  There is about 125k in the middle and we have to call 57k so we are getting roughly 2.25/1.  If he has 99 we have 6 outs twice so roughly 24% plus the backdoors for another couple of percent so 26%*3.25 gives us a negative EV of 15.5%.  Sure we have chances that we are dominating him and he has AQ/AJ flush draws etc but we could also be in a coffin especially if we think he does do funky stuff which is why in think you have to assign ranges etc.  I think it is an interesting hand and posted because I wanted to get an idea of ranges etc in this spot because I think I would have found it a fairly trivial fold without other reads and  I assumed I was missing something major with my analysis.

[pleno1]

we should also give him aa,kk etc that he slowplayed

i mean i think checking is probably the best play anyway but its pretty close.

[cambridgealex]

theres 145 in there. 52 preflop, ive bet 18 and he jammed for 75 total, so its 57 to win 145, 2.5:1 so we need just 28% equity to call. just can't see this hand is even being discussed when there's a flush draw out there he could have, and I dominate him some % (a wayyyy bigger % than he has AA/KK or 5x btw).

[cambridgealex]

btw I've just woken up with my trousers around my ankles, still got my shirt, 3 of the buttons are missing, my contact lens are still in, I had a piece of shiny paper (the stuff that comes down from the ceiling in clubs) on my forehead still.

the last night in vegas was possibly the sickest ever.

I was almost definitely the drunkest i've ever been.

full tr to follow.

[Pinchop73]

There's just absolutely no way you can get away from it, once he peels the 4b and you see that flop. Just one big huge sigh of a hand. Maybe c/jamming flop is more +ev as you get one more bet before he folds the entirely of a perceived normal BBvsBTN 3b/c range. Either way it's all going in.

[redarmi]

theres 145 in there. 52 preflop, ive bet 18 and he jammed for 75 total, so its 57 to win 145, 2.5:1 so we need just 28% equity to call. just can't see this hand is even being discussed when there's a flush draw out there he could have, and I dominate him some % (a wayyyy bigger % than he has AA/KK or 5x btw).

I can just about see this in a cash game but surely here there has to be some premium attached to your tournament life?  Doesnt ICM come into it all at this stage?

[pleno1]

yeh prefer c jamming too