Question

[doubleup]

50 player, 75 players, 100 players, all are 4/1 shots unless I'm completely misunderstanding what you've described

It was a discussion between 2 other people.  1 said its 4-5/1 with 1 pick for every 5 players but the other said it isnt as each pick is gonna be entrants/1, entrants-1/1 etc, 1st person counters that after all the picks it will work out around 5/1.

I wasnt sure of the math so was interested in the exact math

one pick for every 6 entrants, so 5-1.  The simple way to think of it is you are splitting the tickets into two pools one being 5 times bigger than the other. 

Presumably the debate was about the actual draw - ie the first draw is eg 59-1, the second 58-1 etc.  However you have to take into account that the second draw only occurs when the first one fails.  So the first success probability is .016667 (59/1), the second draw is .016949 (58/1) but this only occurs when the first draw fails .983333 x .016949 =.016667.  So if you run through all those calculations for the 10 goes and add then together you still get 5-1.

   

[gatso]

one pick for every 6 entrants, so 5-1

have the rules changed? you're answering a different question to me by the looks of it

[doubleup]

one pick for every 6 entrants, so 5-1

have the rules changed? you're answering a different question to me by the looks of it

from the relevant thread

At the conclusion of the tournament, the outright winner will draw one name for every six “£10 Jackpot Add-ons” purchased.

just clarifying what the question should have been.....

[rex008]

Does buying two lottery tickets (for the same draw) double your chance of winning the jackpot?

not if you pick the same numbers for both

Sorry. It was a very tongue in cheek q. This thread reminded me of this absolute epic on another forum I frequent. That epic then had 2 follow up threads that got nearly as big. Very scary indeed.

[gatso]

Does buying two lottery tickets (for the same draw) double your chance of winning the jackpot?

not if you pick the same numbers for both

Sorry. It was a very tongue in cheek q. This thread reminded me of this absolute epic on another forum I frequent. That epic then had 2 follow up threads that got nearly as big. Very scary indeed.

ldo, that's why it didn't get a serious answer. I've got to post 5 of the thread you linked to. it's a real jawdropper. may have to read the rest now

First ticket buys you are a 1 in 14,000,000 chance

second ticket (assuming difference in ticket) buys you a 1 in 13,999,999 chance

1 in 13,999,999 a long long long long long way off 1 in seven million

(next ticket buys you a a 1 in 13,999,998 chance)

the difference between 14,000,00 and 13,999,999 is not that great at all...

[gatso]

wow

Join Date: Apr 2007
Location: Wakefied
Posts: 460
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I've invented two new games. One is you are given a 100 sided die and need to roll a 1 to win. That's a 1:100 shot. In the other game you're given a 50 sided die and the object to win is to again throw a 1. That's a 1:50 shot

You're twice as likely to win at the 1:50 shot, than the 1:100 shot.

In the lottery, you have a 1:14,000,000 (aporx) chance of winning. To be twice as likely to win (double your chances), you'd need to lower the odds by half... In this case, that's lowing them by 7 mil (approx). To do this, you need to buy 7 million tickets, since 7 million is half of 14 million.

All buying 2 tickets does is lowers your odds from 1:14,000,000 to 1 to 13,999,999. That in no way doubles your chances.

[gatso]

I can only read the thread a couple of pages at a time as it leaves me stunned. haven't yet dared to look at how long it goes on for

But the problem of a 2nd ticket is it adds complication and the odds no longer seem so easy... 1 in 14000000 is easy enough but your odds of winning with 2 tickets do not equal 1 in 7000000, they are 2 in 14000000

[rex008]

I can only read the thread a couple of pages at a time as it leaves me stunned. haven't yet dared to look at how long it goes on for

But the problem of a 2nd ticket is it adds complication and the odds no longer seem so easy... 1 in 14000000 is easy enough but your odds of winning with 2 tickets do not equal 1 in 7000000, they are 2 in 14000000

Believe me, to anyone who even has the vaguest notion of odds and probability, it's incredibly scary. It got to 1000 posts, they closed it and opened another (improves forum performance, apparently), and that got to about 500. Then there was another 2 spin-off threads. There were still people seriously arguing that if you bought all but one possible combination, you still only had a 50/50 chance of winning the jackpot!

 

[gatso]

There were still people seriously arguing that if you bought all but one possible combination, you still only had a 50/50 chance of winning the jackpot!

I haven't yet got to anyone claiming that but was expecting it as it's the logical conclusion to the flawed logic that many are putting forward

[doubleup]

There were still people seriously arguing that if you bought all but one possible combination, you still only had a 50/50 chance of winning the jackpot!

sadly ppl are only this emphatic in defending their ignorance on the internet, I have yet to meet someone irl who would allow me to draw two cards from a standard pack and pay me 11-1 if I drew an ace.

[Cf]

It continues to amaze me how many people don't understand basic probability. Even worse is people interested in gambling.

[Cf]

Although I will add that buying a second lottery ticket doesn't necessarily double your chances of winning

[gatso]

I'm gonna do the lottery tonight but I'm not gonna check the numbers for a couple of months. once all the other tickets have been checked mine is much more likely to be a winnah

[Cf]

I'm gonna do the lottery tonight but I'm not gonna check the numbers for a couple of months. once all the other tickets have been checked mine is much more likely to be a winnah

Make sure you use any numbers that are important to you such as birthdays etc. You're more likely to win with those. Then buy a second ticket to improve the odds from 1:1400000 to 1:1399999.

[Cf]

I've made the mistake of opening that thread up... quite scary stuff.