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gatso
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« Reply #45 on: January 08, 2011, 03:23:46 PM » |
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I've made it up to page 21. it takes a while, you have to take breaks to take in what you've read. just seen there's 13 more pages to go
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« Reply #46 on: January 08, 2011, 03:29:03 PM » |
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Buying 2 tickets doesn't double your chances of winning.
I can't see how people believe it does... This is ridiculous.
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« Reply #47 on: January 08, 2011, 03:30:09 PM » |
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lol same guy quoting someone else:
Quote:Originally Posted by zmoosa1
Voted YES..
one ticket = one chance in 14 million
two tickets = two chances in 14 million.
two is double of one, so the answer is yes.
It's not that simple
Perhaps you wish it was, but it really isnt.
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« Reply #48 on: January 08, 2011, 03:34:58 PM » |
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In fact cos i've got nothing better to do i'm gonna quote every post by the idiot who doesn't get it.
If you have 1 ticket you have 1 covered 1 possible combination of 14 million combinations.
If you pick another possibble combination by buying another ticket you will be taking combination 1 out of 13999999.
You can't half the 14000000 because having one more ticket does not cover the 7000000 combinations you are removing by balancing it.
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« Reply #49 on: January 08, 2011, 03:36:06 PM » |
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Quote:Originally Posted by imightbewrong
Iccz - Your first ticket has a chance of 1/14000000. Your second ticket also has a chance of 1/14000000 - as I think GD said, imagine these two tickets were bought by different people (and are different). The chance of one of these two people winning is 1/14M + 1/14M = 2/14M = 1/7M. Now if one person had bought these two tickets, their chance of a win would be 1/7M. Now if four people had bought tickets, the chance of one of them winning is double that - 2/7M. You can keep on doubling this - 7M people would have a 1/2 chance of winning between them.
Your 2nd ticket has a chance of 1 in 14000000 on it's own, but as you have already picked one comination that doesn't need to be factored in to the 2nd ticket (unless you're stupid enough to go for duplicate tickets), so ticket two assuming you dont want to duplicate numbers will be 1 in 13999999.
The chances of winning are based on combinations not on probability. There are 14000000 combinations you pick 2 of them you have a 2 from 14000000 chance of winning, it is not a ratio - you can't balance because you can't just scrap 7000000 combinations. It is not a ratio.
I'm going to ignore the example because it's easy enough to talk about the tickets and I'll be repeating myself to talk about it.
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« Reply #50 on: January 08, 2011, 03:36:28 PM » |
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lol @ saying this has nothing to do with probability!!
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« Reply #51 on: January 08, 2011, 03:37:01 PM » |
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Quote:Originally Posted by zmoosa1
You're dividing it the wrong way.
1 ticket is 1/14million which is 0.0000071
2 tickets is 2/14000000 which is 0.0000143
Your argument suggests the 2 ticket calculation is 14000000/2 which is 7000000.
It is not a ratio.
You have a 2 in 14000000 chance, you can't reduce the number of possible ways to win the lottery as it is in it's lowest form.
What you do is you take your 1 in 14000000 chance and your 1 in 13999999 chance.
You add them together:
2 in 27999999.
Your odds are 1 in 13999999.5
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« Reply #52 on: January 08, 2011, 03:38:12 PM » |
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I'll stop now as I think we get the picture. I do like the conclusion we can draw from this though. I just wait until 1399999 tickets are sold before I buy my ticket. That ticket will have a 1 in 1 chance of winning! I'm gonna be rich!
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gatso
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« Reply #53 on: January 08, 2011, 03:41:12 PM » |
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I like the argument that if you have a 10 sided die, choose 2 numbers and then roll it once you don't have a 1 in 5 chance of one of your numbers coming up because things don't act like that in the real worls
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« Reply #54 on: January 08, 2011, 03:45:35 PM » |
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He has to be winding everyone up. Surely?
Quote:Originally Posted by FruitBat
Two chances at 14 million combinations is 1 in 7 million. That's how probability works.
It is not, you are dealing with ratios, you can't use a ratio for this
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« Reply #55 on: January 08, 2011, 03:49:42 PM » |
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Yup. Has to be a wind up.
The same way tossing a coin 10 times will not give you heads 50% of the time and tails 50% of the time.
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« Reply #56 on: January 08, 2011, 03:52:17 PM » |
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This is just getting too much now. All of these posts are by the same guy...
But the problem of a 2nd ticket is it adds complication and the odds no longer seem so easy... 1 in 14000000 is easy enough but your odds of winning with 2 tickets do not equal 1 in 7000000, they are 2 in 14000000.
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« Reply #57 on: January 08, 2011, 03:56:01 PM » |
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Enough quoting now. Question for gatso.
I take a random coin from my pocket and flip it. It lands on heads. I flip it again. Which side if any is it more likely to land on?
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boldie
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« Reply #58 on: January 08, 2011, 04:14:17 PM » |
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depends on the coin and whether you heated it or not
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Give a man a gun and he can rob a bank, give a man a bank and he can rob the world.
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gatso
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« Reply #59 on: January 08, 2011, 04:16:01 PM » |
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heads innit. all I know about it is it's got at least one head, maybe it's got 2, maybe there's a tail on the other side, I've got no way of knowing so have to plump for the only bit of knowledge I have
I'm off to win the lotteryz now with my new skills
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If you get to the yeasty clunge you've gone too far
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