Annoying spot in a £2/£4 game

[SuuPRlim]

He's flatting KQs with fish behind always imo

I agree with this

[pleno1]

KQhh

il lay you 5-1 that he didnt have 

lulll

[skolsuper]

Massive jetlag sighs. Nothing much to do this early in the morning, might as well bash out some hand analysis.

Preflop

Dubai is of course pretty much spot on with his succinct analysis ("fold pre, /end thread"), assuming he has wordlessly taken into account hero's bankroll situation and is suggesting we sacrifice a small amount of equity in this hand in order to lower variance and preserve our bankroll, making our future play more profitable on average. However I think if we assume infinite bankrolls and just want to look at the most profitable way to play this hand in a vacuum, there are better lines. Villain can be very wide here BTN vs CO with a ton of dead money in the pot, if we're raise/folding AJo here we're gonna get run over pretty hard in the long run.

Rupert advocates peeling the 3bet pre, this is something I would never do but since Rupert always seems to suggest it, I guess it may be a matter of personal taste/style. The reason I don't like it is because it seems to me to be a pretty big reverse implied odds situation when we hit and it will be very difficult to win the pot when we miss, since a check/shove will be pretty big and besides with any c/r we rep only sets on dry boards (villain will be assuming we 4bet QQ+ I reckon) and get called by so many more pair+draw hands on wet boards. For these reasons I usually 4bet or fold CO vs BTN 100bbs deep.

After Chris 4bets I assume he is calling off, which I don't mind and would probably be doing myself. If we think lolufold has a big exploitable gap between his 3bet and 5bet ranges here (very plausible) then 4b/f becomes way the best line. However, it is burning money if we're wrong, if he is 5bet bluffing at all then 4b/c is essential. For that reason and because I think it is pretty impossible to speculate on villain's 3bet/5betting ranges, all we know about him is that he is a good player with great game selection, I would tend towards trying to play unexploitably, in which case I think we're pretty much indifferent between 4b/calling and 4b/folding. Once he shoves we'll be getting roughly the same odds to call as we have vs villain's 5b range, which could be anything from {JJ+ AK} to {88+ AQ+ with bluffs}. If we're indifferent between calling and folding then I might go back to the lowering variance argument and opt for a fold. Most people at this point are gonna be all "omg 4b/f AJo is SOOO exploitable, ur turning it into 72o", but imo there is nothing inherently wrong with 4bet/folding AJo pre, you can turn hands into a bluff preflop the same as you can on any street, when the situation warrants it, and which exact hands you 4b/f doesn't actually matter so long as you're balanced.

Postflop

I agree mostly with AlexMartin's posts on the postflop play, I think shutting down is ok without history as there is a good chance villain has a ridic strong range, but also he posts that the regs he plays against never have AA or KK in this spot. I would guess that villain's range is either {KK+} or it's entirely stuff like 97s that he wants to own us with. Personally I think we're still repping a strong range and if we don't want to get superowned then AJ should be in our cbetting range. I dunno why cambridgealex wants to bet £130 when £55-65 does the same job, needs to work less often, and then we can fold if we're shoved on (if villain wants to jam in worse hands than AJ after a random 4bets pre and cbets here then good luck to him). If called, I'm shoving the turn, as much for balance as anything else. If we don't have the stomach for this kind of variance then we ought to be folding pre. As to what hands we're folding out with a flop cbet, I think it's fair to say villain never has a pair less than QQ (that's not to say I think he has QQ+ very often) or AK. AQ has been mentioned, people seem to think it's too narrow to be trying to fold out only one hand, but I think it's fine when AQ is such a big part of our opponent's range and we're betting <1/3rd pot. Also I don't think there's anything wrong with betting to fold out worse hands, we're not exactly gonna be check/calling with AJ-high so if we're ahead we only get to showdown if it goes check-check twice (which will almost never happen) and even then we're giving our opponent 2 free shots to outdraw us, so getting a fold on the flop is way the better option. In conclusion: bet £65, shove turn.

[GreekStein]

Baby jebus itt

[SuuPRlim]

Massive jetlag sighs. Nothing much to do this early in the morning, might as well bash out some hand analysis.

Preflop

Dubai is of course pretty much spot on with his succinct analysis ("fold pre, /end thread"), assuming he has wordlessly taken into account hero's bankroll situation and is suggesting we sacrifice a small amount of equity in this hand in order to lower variance and preserve our bankroll, making our future play more profitable on average. However I think if we assume infinite bankrolls and just want to look at the most profitable way to play this hand in a vacuum, there are better lines. Villain can be very wide here BTN vs CO with a ton of dead money in the pot, if we're raise/folding AJo here we're gonna get run over pretty hard in the long run.

Rupert advocates peeling the 3bet pre, this is something I would never do but since Rupert always seems to suggest it, I guess it may be a matter of personal taste/style. The reason I don't like it is because it seems to me to be a pretty big reverse implied odds situation when we hit and it will be very difficult to win the pot when we miss, since a check/shove will be pretty big and besides with any c/r we rep only sets on dry boards (villain will be assuming we 4bet QQ+ I reckon) and get called by so many more pair+draw hands on wet boards. For these reasons I usually 4bet or fold CO vs BTN 100bbs deep.

After Chris 4bets I assume he is calling off, which I don't mind and would probably be doing myself. If we think lolufold has a big exploitable gap between his 3bet and 5bet ranges here (very plausible) then 4b/f becomes way the best line. However, it is burning money if we're wrong, if he is 5bet bluffing at all then 4b/c is essential. For that reason and because I think it is pretty impossible to speculate on villain's 3bet/5betting ranges, all we know about him is that he is a good player with great game selection, I would tend towards trying to play unexploitably, in which case I think we're pretty much indifferent between 4b/calling and 4b/folding. Once he shoves we'll be getting roughly the same odds to call as we have vs villain's 5b range, which could be anything from {JJ+ AK} to {88+ AQ+ with bluffs}. If we're indifferent between calling and folding then I might go back to the lowering variance argument and opt for a fold. Most people at this point are gonna be all "omg 4b/f AJo is SOOO exploitable, ur turning it into 72o", but imo there is nothing inherently wrong with 4bet/folding AJo pre, you can turn hands into a bluff preflop the same as you can on any street, when the situation warrants it, and which exact hands you 4b/f doesn't actually matter so long as you're balanced.

Postflop

I agree mostly with AlexMartin's posts on the postflop play, I think shutting down is ok without history as there is a good chance villain has a ridic strong range, but also he posts that the regs he plays against never have AA or KK in this spot. I would guess that villain's range is either {KK+} or it's entirely stuff like 97s that he wants to own us with. Personally I think we're still repping a strong range and if we don't want to get superowned then AJ should be in our cbetting range. I dunno why cambridgealex wants to bet £130 when £55-65 does the same job, needs to work less often, and then we can fold if we're shoved on (if villain wants to jam in worse hands than AJ after a random 4bets pre and cbets here then good luck to him). If called, I'm shoving the turn, as much for balance as anything else. If we don't have the stomach for this kind of variance then we ought to be folding pre. As to what hands we're folding out with a flop cbet, I think it's fair to say villain never has a pair less than QQ (that's not to say I think he has QQ+ very often) or AK. AQ has been mentioned, people seem to think it's too narrow to be trying to fold out only one hand, but I think it's fine when AQ is such a big part of our opponent's range and we're betting <1/3rd pot. Also I don't think there's anything wrong with betting to fold out worse hands, we're not exactly gonna be check/calling with AJ-high so if we're ahead we only get to showdown if it goes check-check twice (which will almost never happen) and even then we're giving our opponent 2 free shots to outdraw us, so getting a fold on the flop is way the better option. In conclusion: bet £65, shove turn.

Nicely Nicely Put, thats how you make a mill-ball :p

although I still maintain lolufold's 3bets would not contain many mid-strength hands in this specific spot but then I seem to be in the minority here.

[NoflopsHomer]

Massive jetlag sighs. Nothing much to do this early in the morning, might as well bash out some hand analysis.

Preflop

Dubai is of course pretty much spot on with his succinct analysis ("fold pre, /end thread"), assuming he has wordlessly taken into account hero's bankroll situation and is suggesting we sacrifice a small amount of equity in this hand in order to lower variance and preserve our bankroll, making our future play more profitable on average. However I think if we assume infinite bankrolls and just want to look at the most profitable way to play this hand in a vacuum, there are better lines. Villain can be very wide here BTN vs CO with a ton of dead money in the pot, if we're raise/folding AJo here we're gonna get run over pretty hard in the long run.

Rupert advocates peeling the 3bet pre, this is something I would never do but since Rupert always seems to suggest it, I guess it may be a matter of personal taste/style. The reason I don't like it is because it seems to me to be a pretty big reverse implied odds situation when we hit and it will be very difficult to win the pot when we miss, since a check/shove will be pretty big and besides with any c/r we rep only sets on dry boards (villain will be assuming we 4bet QQ+ I reckon) and get called by so many more pair+draw hands on wet boards. For these reasons I usually 4bet or fold CO vs BTN 100bbs deep.

After Chris 4bets I assume he is calling off, which I don't mind and would probably be doing myself. If we think lolufold has a big exploitable gap between his 3bet and 5bet ranges here (very plausible) then 4b/f becomes way the best line. However, it is burning money if we're wrong, if he is 5bet bluffing at all then 4b/c is essential. For that reason and because I think it is pretty impossible to speculate on villain's 3bet/5betting ranges, all we know about him is that he is a good player with great game selection, I would tend towards trying to play unexploitably, in which case I think we're pretty much indifferent between 4b/calling and 4b/folding. Once he shoves we'll be getting roughly the same odds to call as we have vs villain's 5b range, which could be anything from {JJ+ AK} to {88+ AQ+ with bluffs}. If we're indifferent between calling and folding then I might go back to the lowering variance argument and opt for a fold. Most people at this point are gonna be all "omg 4b/f AJo is SOOO exploitable, ur turning it into 72o", but imo there is nothing inherently wrong with 4bet/folding AJo pre, you can turn hands into a bluff preflop the same as you can on any street, when the situation warrants it, and which exact hands you 4b/f doesn't actually matter so long as you're balanced.

Postflop

I agree mostly with AlexMartin's posts on the postflop play, I think shutting down is ok without history as there is a good chance villain has a ridic strong range, but also he posts that the regs he plays against never have AA or KK in this spot. I would guess that villain's range is either {KK+} or it's entirely stuff like 97s that he wants to own us with. Personally I think we're still repping a strong range and if we don't want to get superowned then AJ should be in our cbetting range. I dunno why cambridgealex wants to bet £130 when £55-65 does the same job, needs to work less often, and then we can fold if we're shoved on (if villain wants to jam in worse hands than AJ after a random 4bets pre and cbets here then good luck to him). If called, I'm shoving the turn, as much for balance as anything else. If we don't have the stomach for this kind of variance then we ought to be folding pre. As to what hands we're folding out with a flop cbet, I think it's fair to say villain never has a pair less than QQ (that's not to say I think he has QQ+ very often) or AK. AQ has been mentioned, people seem to think it's too narrow to be trying to fold out only one hand, but I think it's fine when AQ is such a big part of our opponent's range and we're betting <1/3rd pot. Also I don't think there's anything wrong with betting to fold out worse hands, we're not exactly gonna be check/calling with AJ-high so if we're ahead we only get to showdown if it goes check-check twice (which will almost never happen) and even then we're giving our opponent 2 free shots to outdraw us, so getting a fold on the flop is way the better option. In conclusion: bet £65, shove turn.

Malta friend!

fwiw, I think you're right having watched him play a bit more. I don't know the history against another player but I saw him get him 3bet/call 4bet Q9o and get it in for 100BB's on a JTx vs KK the other night so maybe bet/fold flop and then shove turn is best.

[SuuPRlim]

were you calling if he jammed pre?

[Rupert]

although I still maintain lolufold's 3bets would not contain many mid-strength hands in this specific spot but then I seem to be in the minority here.

I agree his 3b range is extremely polarised and nearly all of it is bluffs.  I also don't think we have bad RIO in fact I think he does when we call since he has a lot of Ax/Jx that he 3 bets which isn't strong enough to call as well as lots of hands that are going to make 2nd pair/a draw when we make top pair and we just print money when this happens.  Obviously it's negated a fair bit that we are OOP with an awkward stack size vs a strong opponent but I believe calling is almost certainly profitable with this and other hands in our calling range (stuff like 99 KQ AQ and we can widen this by occasionally showing up with JTs AA)  If we just 4b f/4b c we are just playing a guessing game as to whether he is 5 betting us light or not since we don't really have any other information.

[Simon Galloway]

If we are taking a rare shot-take into this game, why do we feel the need to balance so much?

[SuuPRlim]

If we are taking a rare shot-take into this game, why do we feel the need to balance so much?

Reading back, I don't think BALANCE has been the topic of the thread, more us trying to assign a range to Redmond for this spot, and give a perceived  range for ourselves.

@Rupert, becoming increasingly impressed by the merits of peeling the 3bet now

[Simon Galloway]

It wasn't a generic thread comment but James mentioned it twice. First to balance 4bet fold and then to shove turn for balance. Neither of which I would. Want to do when shot taking in a game against a player that is not a reason for being in the game.

[tikay]

I've sent the thread to Reds (LOLUFOLD) & suggested he might like to respond. He's a fairly quiet lad, but he may.

He recently did a "Sky Poker School" Show, & he seems to have a way of explaining his thought process pretty well, so it may be useful. Or not.

He plays on Sky Poker most nights, usually at £2.50-£5 or above 6-max. I think his preferred format is Heads-Up at £10-£20 & above, though he seems at ease with any format.

To G2L, no, he's not a God, far from it, but he's "tidy", & has a fairly eye-watering 'roll, all from poker. His 21st for $350k in last year's WSOP Main is his biggest score, but I fancy he wins a good deal more than that per annum Online. He ran deep - 61st I think - in the PCA last month, I think, & I would assume he's at DTD today for UKIPT.

Go & say hi if he's there - he's a most pleasant & friendly chap.

[NoflopsHomer]

were you calling if he jammed pre?

No, I think his 5bet-jamming range is probably still much tighter than his range for calling 4-bets.

[SuuPRlim]

were you calling if he jammed pre?

No, I think his 5bet-jamming range is probably still much tighter than his range for calling 4-bets.

arr, you see I think the two ranges (5bet/3bet call) are the same I this spot......good old pokers - looking forward to him coming ITT and telling us he had  and me having to eat my words lol

[tikay]

were you calling if he jammed pre?

No, I think his 5bet-jamming range is probably still much tighter than his range for calling 4-bets.

arr, you see I think the two ranges (5bet/3bet call) are the same I this spot......good old pokers - looking forward to him coming ITT and telling us he had  and me having to eat my words lol

Whether he comes on here or not, I'm pretty sure he'll tell me what he had, & if so, I'll pass it on.