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Poker Hand Analysis
ukipt
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Topic: ukipt (Read 2594 times)
snoopy1239
Hero Member
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Posts: 33034
ukipt
«
on:
February 14, 2011, 03:20:36 PM »
notts ukipt main
2.5k/5k level
hero has 125k on bb (i.e. 25 bigs) - image is average
one of the chip leaders - pretty loose but not insane - raises to 15k utg
Chance of c-bet is very high.
Hero has T-T...
«
Last Edit: February 14, 2011, 03:26:07 PM by snoopy1239
»
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Skgv
Sr. Member
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Posts: 833
Re: ukipt
«
Reply #1 on:
February 14, 2011, 03:23:18 PM »
Quote from: snoopy1239 on February 14, 2011, 03:20:36 PM
notts ukipt main
2.5k/5k level
hero has 125k on bb (i.e. 25 bigs) - image is average
one of the chip leaders - pretty loose but not insane - raises to 15k utg
Hero has T-T...
Trick question ?
Logged
snoopy1239
Hero Member
Offline
Posts: 33034
Re: ukipt
«
Reply #2 on:
February 14, 2011, 03:34:39 PM »
Quote from: Skgv on February 14, 2011, 03:23:18 PM
Quote from: snoopy1239 on February 14, 2011, 03:20:36 PM
notts ukipt main
2.5k/5k level
hero has 125k on bb (i.e. 25 bigs) - image is average
one of the chip leaders - pretty loose but not insane - raises to 15k utg
Hero has T-T...
Trick question ?
No trick, am posting on behalf of someone else (I, obv, donked out pre-buffet). Was just wondering if there's an argument for calling.
«
Last Edit: February 14, 2011, 03:36:43 PM by snoopy1239
»
Logged
outragous76
Hero Member
Offline
Posts: 13315
Yeah Bitch! ......... MAGNETS! owwwh!
Re: ukipt
«
Reply #3 on:
February 14, 2011, 03:38:12 PM »
Quote from: snoopy1239 on February 14, 2011, 03:34:39 PM
Quote from: Skgv on February 14, 2011, 03:23:18 PM
Quote from: snoopy1239 on February 14, 2011, 03:20:36 PM
notts ukipt main
2.5k/5k level
hero has 125k on bb (i.e. 25 bigs) - image is average
one of the chip leaders - pretty loose but not insane - raises to 15k utg
Hero has T-T...
Trick question ?
No trick, am posting on behalf of someone else (I, obv, donked out pre-buffet). Was just wondering if there's an argument for calling.
Never calling
Stick em in his eye and win
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".....and then I spent 2 hours talking with Stu which blew my mind.........."
George2Loose
Hero Member
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Posts: 15127
Re: ukipt
«
Reply #4 on:
February 14, 2011, 03:39:08 PM »
Wouldnt say Im never calling but with villian as described its a shove. Too shallow to play flop OOP
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Ole Ole Ole Ole!
redarmi
Hero Member
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Posts: 5166
Re: ukipt
«
Reply #5 on:
February 14, 2011, 03:41:28 PM »
Just a horrible spot because it is so hard to plan your hand around what you want to do post flop as if you call it is too deep to just shove on a safe-ish flop. Think I 3bet to 45kish and fold if he shoves which is probably way too weak but if he wants to get it in here I can't really put him on worse. If he calls the 45k then at least I have built the pot to be a reasonable shove on a decent flop but still absolutely hate my life.
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outragous76
Hero Member
Offline
Posts: 13315
Yeah Bitch! ......... MAGNETS! owwwh!
Re: ukipt
«
Reply #6 on:
February 14, 2011, 03:51:25 PM »
Has villain been raising 3x as standard? How mnay chips does villian have?
We are picking up 20% of our stack by shoving due to his raise (im assuming there was a 500 ante too).
I agree in shoving 25bbs its a little more than id like (esp live), but 3 bet folding is never happening, 3 betting allows him to call and there are plenty flops we dont like, and just calling is gonna end up in a tricky spot post flop due to stack sizes.
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BulldozerD
Hero Member
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Posts: 1888
Re: ukipt
«
Reply #7 on:
February 14, 2011, 03:51:47 PM »
I aren't 3bet folding 10s 25bb deep. Probably just jam
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the sicilian
Hero Member
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Posts: 7089
Re: ukipt
«
Reply #8 on:
February 14, 2011, 03:52:59 PM »
what is chip leader stack?
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Just because you don't like it...... It doesn't mean it's not the truth
Skgv
Sr. Member
Offline
Posts: 833
Re: ukipt
«
Reply #9 on:
February 14, 2011, 05:16:22 PM »
Quote from: snoopy1239 on February 14, 2011, 03:34:39 PM
Quote from: Skgv on February 14, 2011, 03:23:18 PM
Quote from: snoopy1239 on February 14, 2011, 03:20:36 PM
notts ukipt main
2.5k/5k level
hero has 125k on bb (i.e. 25 bigs) - image is average
one of the chip leaders - pretty loose but not insane - raises to 15k utg
Hero has T-T...
Trick question ?
No trick, am posting on behalf of someone else (I, obv, donked out pre-buffet). Was just wondering if there's an argument for calling.
In wierd mood today so sorry for sarcasim but i think you got all the answers u need as the guys ddint feel it was a set up !
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NoflopsHomer
Malcontent
Hero Member
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Posts: 20204
Enchantment? Enchantment!
Re: ukipt
«
Reply #10 on:
February 14, 2011, 09:11:44 PM »
Quote from: snoopy1239 on February 14, 2011, 03:34:39 PM
Quote from: Skgv on February 14, 2011, 03:23:18 PM
Quote from: snoopy1239 on February 14, 2011, 03:20:36 PM
notts ukipt main
2.5k/5k level
hero has 125k on bb (i.e. 25 bigs) - image is average
one of the chip leaders - pretty loose but not insane - raises to 15k utg
Hero has T-T...
Trick question ?
No trick, am posting on behalf of someone else (I, obv, donked out pre-buffet). Was just wondering if there's an argument for calling.
Jam>>>Fold>>>>>>>>>>>>>>Call imo
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baltic_blonde
Full Member
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Posts: 131
Re: ukipt
«
Reply #11 on:
February 15, 2011, 03:33:15 PM »
I would personally just call. Your stack is way too big to jam, if you shove, it is unlikely that the villain will be calling with worse (AJs+, 10s+)
If you just flat call and the flop is dry/rags I would check and let him c-bet and then would go over the top...however on a wet board+overcards, I would prob fold and look for a better spot to make accumulate chips.
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SuuPRlim
Hero Member
Offline
Posts: 10437
Re: ukipt
«
Reply #12 on:
February 15, 2011, 03:39:41 PM »
Quote from: redarmi on February 14, 2011, 03:41:28 PM
Think I 3bet to 45kish and fold if he shoves
Whereas I do understand the logic we just cant do this its burning money, loosing 45k 100% of the time or winning ~280k 35-40% off the time....
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the rage
Sr. Member
Offline
Posts: 380
Re: ukipt
«
Reply #13 on:
February 15, 2011, 06:26:34 PM »
I had a simlar scenario in a recent live comp at DTD. The stack sizes and raise sizes were somewhat different (effective stacks of 16bb) but the rest was the same. In my case i shoved with my TT and ran into JJ. I came to the conclusion, rightly or wrongly, that i had made a mistake. This was mainly due to the fact that the villian was pretty tight and his raise, in hindsight, was probably committing him to the pot.
In this case, if you re-raise all in, i would say that you are probably only going to be called by JJ+ and AK. In which case you are in deep shit 2/3 of the time and racing for the other 1/3.
If you re-raise and villian folds your stack has gone up from 25 to just over 30bb, which is nice, but not brilliant considering that you are risking your entire tournament in this spot.
I really think that, in this particular situation, it would be better to CALL, with the intention of set-mining, and folding if we fail to hit our set.
I originally felt that folding was the best option, and i still think that this is correct if we aren't gettiong the necessary odds to set-mine. (See questions below)
Serious questions, hoping that someone can offer advice. Are we deep enough to set-mine here, bearing in mind that it is 2bb of our 25bb stack to call ? Also can anyone offer any general advice on implied odds required for set-mining in tournament situations such as this one. (would have posted this seperately, in the beginners section, but felt this hand was a good example of situations where i would be unsure about whether to set-mine or not.)
«
Last Edit: February 15, 2011, 06:29:50 PM by the rage
»
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outragous76
Hero Member
Offline
Posts: 13315
Yeah Bitch! ......... MAGNETS! owwwh!
Re: ukipt
«
Reply #14 on:
February 15, 2011, 08:45:28 PM »
Quote from: the rage on February 15, 2011, 06:26:34 PM
I had a simlar scenario in a recent live comp at DTD. The stack sizes and raise sizes were somewhat different (effective stacks of 16bb) but the rest was the same. In my case i shoved with my TT and ran into JJ. I came to the conclusion, rightly or wrongly, that i had made a mistake. This was mainly due to the fact that the villian was pretty tight and his raise, in hindsight, was probably committing him to the pot.
In this case, if you re-raise all in, i would say that you are probably only going to be called by JJ+ and AK. In which case you are in deep shit 2/3 of the time and racing for the other 1/3.
If you re-raise and villian folds your stack has gone up from 25 to just over 30bb, which is nice, but not brilliant considering that you are risking your entire tournament in this spot.
I really think that, in this particular situation, it would be better to CALL, with the intention of set-mining, and folding if we fail to hit our set.
I originally felt that folding was the best option, and i still think that this is correct if we aren't gettiong the necessary odds to set-mine. (See questions below)
Serious questions, hoping that someone can offer advice. Are we deep enough to set-mine here, bearing in mind that it is 2bb of our 25bb stack to call ? Also can anyone offer any general advice on
implied odds required for set-mining in tournament situations
such as this one. (would have posted this seperately, in the beginners section, but felt this hand was a good example of situations where i would be unsure about whether to set-mine or not.)
between 15-20:1
10:1 if you are 100% convinced he is stacking if you hit - but dont use that as an excuse to make a bad call
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