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Author Topic: Black Friday and the aftermath: Online Poker Implications  (Read 174566 times)
smashedagain
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« Reply #165 on: April 18, 2011, 06:48:10 PM »

short meeting tonight andrew. not much to discuss
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« Reply #166 on: April 18, 2011, 06:48:21 PM »

Titanium Bean gets a bit excitable, and I don't think one should take his sweeping generalisation seriously, should we Mr Wayman?


is it better to generalise to most of the worlds populace then?



Much. As long as its not specific to one race, creed, religion or nationality and posted on here in case it offends, its better

thank you
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« Reply #167 on: April 18, 2011, 06:55:47 PM »

Titanium Bean gets a bit excitable, and I don't think one should take his sweeping generalisation seriously, should we Mr Wayman?


is it better to generalise to most of the worlds populace then?



Much. As long as its not specific to one race, creed, religion or nationality and posted on here in case it offends, its better

thank you

Roger.

Jase we are very new age techy so we have meetings online now Wink

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« Reply #168 on: April 18, 2011, 06:57:34 PM »

and, we say, desperately trying to keep the thread on track..


Party Poker rose 30% in London today too
Tipped up within the first two pages of the 2+2 thread. Every cloud n that for those that got on.
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« Reply #169 on: April 18, 2011, 06:58:54 PM »

My stars cashout has been processed now, the more I think about the situation the more positive I am from a purely selfish standpoint.

Played a session today games loaded a bit slower but nothing dramatic and they were also a bit softer than your average Monday afternoon imo.

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« Reply #170 on: April 18, 2011, 07:38:30 PM »


Tipped up within the first two pages of the 2+2 thread. Every cloud n that for those that got on.

yeah but that was after the market closed and they opened with most of the gain already priced in.  So unless someone had access to out of hours trading with idiots they wouldn't have made much.
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« Reply #171 on: April 18, 2011, 08:12:39 PM »

More good stuff


Federal Poker Indictments: Revisiting Prohibition

The timing is suspicious.

March saw Nevada regulators approving a partnership between Caesars and 888, and Wynn announcing a joint venture with PokerStars.  Now comes the indictments, three-billion-dollar civil suit and seizures of domain names by the feds.  Wynn immediately cancelled his plans.  Players were panicked.

Which was, of course, the goal.

If the allegations are true, the operators brought this on themselves, by lying and bribing bank officials. Of course, the prosecutors have the problem of convincing a jury that there is bank fraud when the "victims" are tricked into making millions of dollars.

And will this be the end of Internet poker?  Did Prohibition end drinking?

Prohibition created modern organized crime, by outlawing alcoholic beverages.  When people want something and it is illegal, organizations will arise to fill the demand.  How much more so when the activity, online poker, is not even clearly illegal?

Every action by the U.S. federal government makes it more difficult for it to go after the next operator.  The UIGEA, rammed through by the failed politician Bill Frist (R.-TN), can be seen as an anti-consumer-protection law, because it scared all of the publicly traded gaming companies out of the U.S. market.  Then prosecutors went after payment processors, making it more difficult for players to find legitimate ways to send their money to betting sites.

Now the feds have seized .com domain names and charged operators with bank fraud.  So, gaming sites are switching to .eu and .uk, and cutting off all physical contact with the U.S.  Even the present American operators can’t be extradited, so what hope is there for the DoJ to bring future foreign operators here to stand trial?

The Grand Jury has been meeting for at least a year.  The criminal indictment against PokerStars, Full Tilt, Absolute and their founders, was unsealed by the U.S. Attorney for New York on April 15, but bore a date-stamp of March 10.  So why now?

Besides the Caesars-888 and Wynn-PokerStars agreements, the Nevada Assembly Judiciary Committee recently approved a bill to regulate online poker.  And the District of Columbia actually made it legal.

The DoJ has been waging a war of intimidation against Internet gambling for years, successfully scaring players, operators, payment processors and affiliates into abandoning the American market.  Lacking the two essentials to any prosecution – a statute that clearly makes the activity illegal and a defendant physically present in the U.S. – the feds have announced showy legal action against easy targets about every other year.

Online poker is not an easy target, since a federal Court of Appeal ruled the Wire Act is limited to bets on sports events.  And tricking financial institutions into processing poker payments seems a technicality, especially since the banks made millions without paying a penny in fines.

But getting a bank to agree to process gambling transactions in return for a $10 million investment is an easier case, if true.  I can understand approaching a small bank – so small that the officer and part-owner who allegedly arranged the deal, asked for, and received, only $20,000 for his “bonus.”  But why would you do this in Utah, of all states?

There are lots of interesting nuggets in the legal papers.  The DoJ claims that one-third of the billions of dollars players deposited went to the operators through the rake.  That number seems high, but if true, it explains why everyone wants to operate an online poker room, with few expenses and no chance of losing to a lucky gambler.

All of the activities cited occurred after the passage of the UIGEA.  This is a subtle acknowledgment that operators who left the U.S. in 2006 have nothing to fear.

Even if there was a bribe, the feds are still going to have to prove that the poker was illegal.  Since the Wire Act won’t work, prosecutors used 18 U.S.C. 1955, which makes it a federal felony if five or more people do more than $2,000 in business a day in violation of state gambling laws.  There is a “thank you” to the Washington State Gambling Commission, indicating that the DoJ is probably going to piggyback on that state’s 2006 law outlawing all Internet gambling.

The Washington statute was upheld by the State Supreme Court.  Still, there are problems.  State laws are presumed not to reach beyond their borders.  And even if Internet poker is illegal in that state, it is quite a leap to seize domain names for the entire country and threaten bank accounts in places like Panama.

The only state with a law better than Washington’s is Nevada.  But basing this attack on Internet poker on Nevada law would look like it was motivated by the landbased casinos.  After all, who are the big winners here?

We will probably see the first attacks on the indictments from the two defendants who were arrested, the Utah banker and the Nevada payment processor who allegedly bribed him, when they fight extradition to New York.  And the poker operators will undoubtedly fight to get their .com names back for the rest of the world.

The operators will never stand trial.  The only U.S. extradition treaty I have found that covers illegal gambling is with Hong Kong.  Calling it bank fraud won’t work, since the defendants can show their local courts that it is based on gambling.  And it is fundamental to all extraditions that the activity be illegal in both countries.  No nation will extradite an individual to be tried for the very activity that that nation licenses.

There may not even be a settlement.  The DoJ accepted $405 million from PartyGaming and one of its founders and $100 million from Neteller and its founders.  But those companies had already left the U.S. gaming markets.  The DoJ will insist on a guilty plea to something, which might kill the operators’ chances of getting licensed when American laws change.  And no amount of money will buy them the right to open up again without a change in the law.  So what would these operators get from a settlement, other than not having to be worried about getting arrested changing planes?

It will be interesting to watch the fallout.  There are a lot of famous American poker players and others who are associated with the indicted operators.  They should be getting their affairs in order.

Meanwhile, like a raid by Elliot Ness on breweries and speakeasies during Prohibition, there are now wonderful opportunities for new operators to fill the vacuum.  Unless, of course, Americans are actually going to stop playing poker on the Internet.

© Copyright 2011, I. Nelson Rose, Encino, California.  All rights reserved worldwide.  Gambling and the Law® is a registered trademark of Professor I. Nelson Rose, www.GamblingAndTheLaw.com.
 
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« Reply #172 on: April 18, 2011, 08:16:51 PM »

Bill Rini's article is awesome fwiw. As is the Wicked Chops Poker one (first decent article they've written in about two years imo)

Here's a question which only I guess highrollers can answer. Are you going to go to the WSOP this year or next year knowing that you can't play online? I don't think they're will be a problem unless Euros can't access a VPN while in the States.
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« Reply #173 on: April 19, 2011, 04:56:17 AM »

VPN's are clearly going to be the way forward for anyone that wants to get around the problems.  I use one here to watch British TV and access a few sites that don't take US customers etc.  Played on a site I would rather not name as I value my account there quite a few times using it inadvertently and tried again today and got through with no problems although obviously I have a British address.
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« Reply #174 on: April 19, 2011, 07:17:00 AM »

howdy

Just a few of my thoughts since the US ban kicked in..

Traffic is obv well down on the big 3 (tilt stars and ub) tilt and ub seem to be the worst affected with Stars losing the smallest% of their mtt fields.Iv not really looked closely buy it seems that non US sites (ipoker,partyongame) have picked up a little bit but nothing too huge.

I'm still pretty much just playing stars and tilt and have noticed the games have become tons fishier with a lot of players i haven't seen before coming out of the woodwork,most seem to be from Russia or Canada,maybe some losing players are trying their luck now the American sharks aren,t there

As an mtt player the drop in the gtee's obv sucks,but they haven't dropped as much as i thought they would,with many of the early evening (uk time) comps having the same gtees as before 

Overall I'd say on line poker has gone back to what it was like 3 years ago with smaller fields but worse players,i used to make decent $$ back then so hopefully the good times are on their way back. dont river me

I am also expecting the mtt schedule to shift to more Euro friendly times very soon which is nice too.

I'm sure the US will be back eventually in a regulated way,so if it does return there will probably be an influx of fishy new players who were worried about the legality and difficulty of depositing/cashing out .

One thing i am a little worried about is the safety of my on line bankroll,i know nowt about legal/banking stuff but will be keeping hardly anything on line just in case it gets nabbed by the Whitehouse.

Overall I'm pretty pleased with the way it's looking, obv feel really sorry for the US players but am just thankful i don't live in the land of the free.

Oppertunities


I,v been thinking if there are any unique oppertunities in the short term till things clear up a bit , i noticed UB's bad beat jackpot is v juicy at the mo and with less players should be easier to win (is this right?)

Full tilt had some very decent overlays 2nite (eg 7k in a 35k gtee) and the wsop $200 shootout is only getting 45ish runners for a 12k pkg.

ub 50k donkament remains as do most of the pre ban freerolls and should get tons less runners than usual.

All the ex US sites will be desp to keep hold of their remaining customers so i reckons now is a great time to ask for rakeback or other incentives to stay with them.

Anyone else got any ideas on how to grab a lil +ev out of all this?

 
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« Reply #175 on: April 19, 2011, 11:19:53 AM »

VPN's are clearly going to be the way forward for anyone that wants to get around the problems.  I use one here to watch British TV and access a few sites that don't take US customers etc.  Played on a site I would rather not name as I value my account there quite a few times using it inadvertently and tried again today and got through with no problems although obviously I have a British address.

US players are going to have to go further lengths than this. Stars have clearly stated they will not unlock US accounts until the owner has a non us bank account and proof of address in a non us country.

Gregior (or anyone else) - I would get my money of UB/Absolute asap, they are clearly going down as they have operated for the last few years. Completely crooked, they are still offering games to US players clearly sticking 2 finger up at the us authorities. Given their history of treating customers like crap, i wouldn't want any money in there.

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« Reply #176 on: April 19, 2011, 11:26:27 AM »

Totally agree with Longy and said the same to Greg yesterday

If I had money on UB, I would be considering it written off, and trying every which way to get it off.
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« Reply #177 on: April 19, 2011, 11:32:35 AM »

Absolute are still open to US players, I believe

What would be the strategy behind sticking two fingers up at the DOJ and saying "fuck you"?

Dwan, I saw, was quoted as saying he wouldn't pay 40c in the $ in lieu of money on AP.

I agree, Guy/Longy
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« Reply #178 on: April 19, 2011, 11:36:39 AM »

Do you think we'll see a black market for stars/ftp accounts coupled with VPNs?

On that note if they're going to have to use VPNs etc might some of them decide to play on different sites/networks?
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« Reply #179 on: April 19, 2011, 03:19:43 PM »

I just found out that one of our clients has just gone to print leading with a story about investing in online gambling, given they sent the copy to the printers last week I'm inclined to think this is more bad timing rather than good on their part.


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