Eurovision Song Contest...

[thediceman]

Top five in no particular order for me are Estonia, Hungary, Abzerbaijan, France (hot favourite but I don't think will win) and shock horror the UK. I'm not a fan of the man band Blue but the favouable draw positions are filled with many weak performers and Blue appartently have a sizeable support across Europe.

Eso, I've got a thread on my forum (about food festivals and all things foodie related), which I've yet to launch where I've put the final running order, details of the semi's running order and who went through and videos of some of the favourites. I've also looked at what draw previous winners had. http://www.greatbritishfoodies.com/showthread.php?77-Eurovision-2011

[Jamier-Host]

I'd say Azerbaijan @ 10/1 with Hills is the best bet you could place now.  Great draw, great recent record as picks up votes from all over the place, and best song they've had since joining (from what I recall).

I think Jedward and Blue can be written off, and would definitely be a layer of at least Jedward for Top 10.  France is way too short but is a massive standout song because it is very different to the rest and the guy can sing.  Who knows whether people will want to vote an opera song to victory though?

[Jamier-Host]

Actually just spotted Hungary have drifted to 11/8 for Top 10 with Bet365 (still odds on elsewhere) so have topped up a bit more on that.

[AndrewT]

Was surprised at just how big a reception Jedward got in the venue last night - think they got the biggest cheer when they went through.

I like Denmark to do well - catchy song + uninspired other Scandie entries.

[Nico29]

Backed azers this morning at 12-1 ew with pp (first 4) after seeing the draw and that it was an arb with betfair.

After finally listening to some of the songs im afraid altho i think azer are near place certs, france look home and hosed, tempted to get involved.

Oh and here's a link from the official site with draw etc...

http://www.eurovision.tv/page/news?id=35723&_t=and_the_ten_qualifiers_are...

[Josedinho]

Russia EW for me

[Nico29]

Been listening to the songs today.

Here's what i thought in draw order:


   1. Finland-Omg so dull.

   2. Bosnia & Herzegovina-Bit of fun but can't see this doing anything, surprised chompy flagged this up and draw has finished any chances.

   3. Denmark-Just ok for me, nothing spectacular and i think will be lost amongst the numbers, especially so early.

   4. Lithuania-?Nice voice but sounds like she's singing almost for no reason, don't get the song.

   5. Hungary-Nice voice and ok song, agree with jamie about singer being bit rough! Feeling might get forgotten, shame as liked the vocal.

   6. Ireland-Typical Jedward it's catchy, fun and outa tune. Will have a chance for sure, but don't see any value here at 5-1.

   7. Sweden-Teeny boppy song, prob find most who could vote will have been told to go to bed, oh and annoying.

   8. Estonia-Fit singer, shame about the song, can't see what the fuss is about this one.

   9. Greece-Surely wld deserve null points.

  10. Russia-Listened to about 5 secs and cldnt bare no more, maybe that's the sign of a winner-but not 4 me!

 11. France-I can't believe this was like 6-1 a few weeks back, really like the song, think girls will love the guy too. Even think 13-8 could be value and tempted to back huge.

  12. Italy-pianovision anyone?didn't get this one bit.

  13. Switzerland-liked her voice, thought song was strange and don't see this troubling anyone up top.

  14. United Kingdom-Liked the song actually as i thought some of the vocals were decent. Not a fan of the band in gen though, but at least we should be top 10 easily.

 15. Moldova-What hats,unicycle and all round madfest that makes jedward look conserv!Def the quirkiest all round act, 4 laff ive stuck pennies on@300s+same top 4@70s, also bkd top 10 @9-2.Only prob- i think they are taking it seriously.

  16. Germany-Thought this clda been the value b4 hearing the song. I'm out.

  17. Romania-Nearly fell asleep to this one.

  18. Austria-Jessie J type, likeish this and backed earlier in the week ew at 50s first 4.

  19. Azerbaijan-Watched the video of this and was impressed, got involved at 12s ew and 5's ew without france. Love their draw, but now ive just heard their semi peformance-thinking of laying much of the win off.

  20. Slovenia-If this was anywhere but near the end i'd say no chance, draw gives it faint hope and i've a feeling this cld become a steamer-from looking at betting- i dunno why cos i wont be getting involved-too samey.

  21. Iceland-Could not put one pence on this.

  22. Spain-Oh dear.

  23. Ukraine-Cute song/singer but little bland for me and altho seemed a large price due to draw im gonna leave it.

  24. Serbia-Like the sound of her voice but really hate the set and whole set up of the song etc.

  25. Georgia-Backed earlier ew@100s  in week due to arb nature and also rumours of being half decent, kinda think have value but changing their lead singer a month or so bk dsnt inspire hugely. Song is ok-draw is great!!


Am deciding how much to have on france but this could be large. Azers is a great value place bet but like i say may lay off some of the win part. Austria and georgia are small value ew bets with nice draws and moldova is a pure fun one, although i see no reason why fun alone can't make them top tenners and 9-2 seems largeish.

[Jamier-Host]

Made the same effort one evening a month or so ago and had France top of my list for quality as it just stood out so much.  Was already clear favourite though and just didn't fancy getting involved at even 5/1.  Surely I'm right in saying that opera is not generally that popular?

True, it could absolutely hose up - but then again I just think I'd avoid piling into a Eurovision fave, especially as France isn't the most popular country in Europe.  Don't forget that a huge part of this competition still hinges on rigged/political voting....

[Nico29]

Made the same effort one evening a month or so ago and had France top of my list for quality as it just stood out so much.  Was already clear favourite though and just didn't fancy getting involved at even 5/1.  Surely I'm right in saying that opera is not generally that popular?

True, it could absolutely hose up - but then again I just think I'd avoid piling into a Eurovision fave, especially as France isn't the most popular country in Europe.  Don't forget that a huge part of this competition still hinges on rigged/political voting....

Nothing stands out for me mate, bar that song. Draw is fine, especially with so much dead wood following it. Agree france aren't hugely popular and i'll be keeping some of the azer bet as back up, which largely down to the draw i see as pretty much the only danger.

[boldie]

Still think Russia will get some votes but will probs watch some clips today and back something from the last 6 to perform.

RP actually have a decent betting article on the Eurovision tonight and that again highlights the importance of the draw;

Last 7 winners were drawn 22-20-24-17-17-19-20.

Now even if you take in to account that some of them were already favourites before the draw (Russia a few years ago springs to mind but there must have been others) it's still too big a deal to ignore.

Having listened to this (as advised by RP as well TBF)



I'll be stunned if she is 100-1 in running after the performance tonight. (100-1 with VC 1/4 odds EW first 4 places)

[boldie]

Boylesports only go three places but also don't mind the Georgian entry @100-1 obv as can be laid off in running

[Graham C]

If Georgia are currently 100/1 but going last, as prices fluctuate during the contest, isn't there a likely chance that it may go out quite a bit further during the contest prior to them peforming, making the time to back them maybe half way through the entries, assuming you are backing to lay off of course.

[Jamier-Host]

My wife read an article about the Iceland entry (good draw) who are the mates of the guy that wrote the song (Sigurjon "Sjonni" Brink).  He dropped dead from a stroke a few days before performing in the national competition, leaving behind a wife and 4 kids, so his friends stepped in to live his dream for him and take the song to Eurovision in his memory.

Typical gushing X Factor stuff, so may well bag a bunch of sympathy votes if they make a meal of it in the coverage....

[Chompy]

Just had my first proper bet...

Top Balkan country. Keen to oppose Bosnia because of the draw and they're 4/5 for this market.

The other five countries are 100/1 or bigger outright and BaldFred have got this one wrong.

Bosnia and Herzegovina           4/5
Slovenia           4
Serbia               9/2
Greece               10
Romania               10
Moldova               10

Slovenia and Serbia are both meh. Greece and Moldova are terrible. Which leaves Romaniaaaaaaaaaaaa!

I backed this outright for a few quid ante-post at 200+. Romania have a decent recent record without winning and finished third last year.

Twelve months ago they got 12pts from neighbours Moldova, same as every year. Moldova are in again, so that's 12pts in the bag.

They also got points from the Scandie countries with their upbeat poppy chorus. This year's will also appeal to the Swedes etc.

And they got points from Spain, where there's a big Romanian population. Should again score there.

Don't think we'll need a big score to win this market. I actually got 12/1. Anything about 6/1 is value imo.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XTljj7YGdZk

[thediceman]

Last 7 winners were drawn 22-20-24-17-17-19-20.

Ukraine 2004 won having entered at no.10.

Just looked at the odds again and all the acts that have favourable draws, except Aberbaijan are truley awful and don't stand a chance even with a favourable draw.

Best bet for me is Estonia e/w @ 20's.

Jedward have shortend to 5/1 WTF and UK have drifted and are now 15/1.

France are 100/40 suggesting the winner has already been crowned.