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Author Topic: The Champions League final, what do you think?  (Read 11937 times)
TightEnd
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« on: May 26, 2011, 02:57:16 PM »





SkyBet If Messi or Rooney score, all losing goalsocrer, correct score bets are refunded. Not sure if there is a catch, but sounds good to me



tips, suggestions and thoughts please
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millidonk
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« Reply #1 on: May 26, 2011, 03:03:46 PM »

Barca 2-0 Villa first
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Marky147
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« Reply #2 on: May 26, 2011, 03:28:02 PM »

I think we're gonna get ironed out so I'm glad I flogged my tickets for enough to cover 2 weeks in Vegas and some spending money  Grin
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« Reply #3 on: May 26, 2011, 04:01:46 PM »

I think we're gonna get ironed out so I'm glad I flogged my tickets for enough to cover 2 weeks in Vegas and some spending money  Grin

don't let snowball see that, he'll rip you to shreds.
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LeKnave
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« Reply #4 on: May 26, 2011, 04:14:08 PM »

I think we're gonna get ironed out so I'm glad I flogged my tickets for enough to cover 2 weeks in Vegas and some spending money  Grin

siiiiigh, poor effort mate
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Nico29
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« Reply #5 on: May 26, 2011, 04:19:21 PM »

Good offer, IF you are allowed any kind of decent bet. Dsnt actually say a limit on refund which is good.

Hate this statement though:


- Any attempts to manipulate or abuse the bonus will not be tolerated and will lead to immediate exclusion from this and future Sky Bet promotions

Nice amount of wriggle room, basically bet too much on something that could be an arb and they might shaft you.

I mean how on earth do they know if you are abusing the promotion??

Just had a look at the markets though and this offer cld be an excuse to go worst price on most markets. So no arbs!

Dont mean to be so negative tighty, so apologies for being so cynical, nice to see some moneyback specials.

Personally i'd be looking at something like messi fgs -as 4-1 isn't a terrible price.

Paddys refund if barca win in 90 mins is pretty good too altho just up to 100.
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Marky147
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« Reply #6 on: May 26, 2011, 04:26:25 PM »

I think we're gonna get ironed out so I'm glad I flogged my tickets for enough to cover 2 weeks in Vegas and some spending money  Grin

siiiiigh, poor effort mate

What can I say.... I am but a poor working class man nowadays and he made me an offer I can't refuse Cheesy
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Nico29
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« Reply #7 on: May 26, 2011, 06:24:54 PM »

Sky Bet have got pretty high limits going on the 'offer eligible' markets.

The value is in the Correct Scores though rather than goalscorer stuff (you can work out what the prices should be off Betfair midpoints) - particularly on Messi FGS - given that he doesn't score first he's very unlikely to then score anytime (he's 6 to score first on Betfair which sounds about right). Think this is the betting opportunity of the season and people should be looking to get as much as they can on this.

Well yeah he's 6.0 (5-1) on betfair to score first, after comish thats about 4.75-1 which means with the added offer of messi or rooney scoring anytime, 4-1 is cert fair.

Also disagree that if messi dsnt score first he's very unlikely to score anytime, nothing is unlikely with this special player.

The correct score prices bar one or two are way off what u can get at betfair and elsewhere.

And seriously ppl should exercise caution b4 doing this as books often enjoy pulling the rug out tactics afterwards-as in the quote i highlighted in above post.

Thus if ppl arb on this they are playing a very risky business, esp if for very large sums.

Agree its a good offer tho, just wldnt go insane! Smiley
« Last Edit: May 26, 2011, 06:29:56 PM by Nico29 » Logged
Nico29
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« Reply #8 on: May 26, 2011, 06:48:39 PM »

Goals quote is 2.37, meaning if Messi doesn't score first, goals for Messi to score anytime in are 1.37. Given that Barca aren't even in for all of those (they're favoured by 0.5ish atm), he's very odds against to score anytime given not scoring first, about 4.5 imo. Obviously you've got the Rooney anytime as well, which I make about 4.25 ish anytime. So it's about 2.5ish give or take that either of them score given Messi not first. Makes Messi fgs about 3/1 which I guess is pretty good, although I do think there's definitely more value in the CSs - and if you're backing those you're obviously doubly-exposed to Messi not scoring if you go on FGS as well.

I agree that there should be some caution but Sky Bet are a fairly reputable bookie and they've outlined in quite a few places that there are no limits to this (Facebook page, talking to CS).

Have ended up getting on most of the Correct Scores, make most of them +EV given the offer, may or may not hedge against them on Betfair; in it mostly for the +EV rather than the arb opportunity.

Like yr thinking and sums and having looked a bit more at the correct scores i'm thinking again about getting involved. Smiley

Still will be bkng messi fgs fairly large with both pads and sky tho.

I hope skybet honur the offer properly, i just wldnt bet big on it.

Those with clean accounts shld be fine, i guess those like me only have previous history to be bitter about.

Any bets i do shall be for betting puropses strictly not arbs.
« Last Edit: May 26, 2011, 06:54:09 PM by Nico29 » Logged
Nico29
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« Reply #9 on: May 26, 2011, 08:33:34 PM »

deleted a cple of my moany posts as dont want to derail thread, gl all, nice offer Smiley
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« Reply #10 on: May 26, 2011, 09:00:51 PM »

deleted a cple of my moany posts as dont want to derail thread, gl all, nice offer Smiley

I dont think they are moany - i think they are enlightening!

I am starting to learn how dodgy book makers are. I once got bummed on a bet - but it wasnt worth my time and effort to be bothered about the knock

But it seems that its fairly rife - and I was astounded to hear recently (on here) that legally it is considered a "gentlemens bet". And as far as I am concerned if its a "gentlemens bet" and not legally enforceable - i wont be betting very often.

eg. - I fancy a punt on something, so I go long - it comes in - booky tells me it was mispriced and doesnt pay. Well I didnt know it was mispriced - i just lke the fact it had a pink hat on and was 100/1! So pay me my money!

Im pretty sure that the camel would have a story or 2 ...................... especially for this thread
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« Reply #11 on: May 26, 2011, 09:09:03 PM »

Got my free Sky Bet £10 bet on Barca to win 3-1 at 18/1

Prob have something else too
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« Reply #12 on: May 26, 2011, 09:11:52 PM »

It's perfectly legitimate for bookies to palp bets if they inform you before hand, not legitimate (though legal) to let the bet run and then void it when it wins. A palp can easily be justified and warranted if the bookie was clearly miles longer than the rest of the market, e.g. if the horse was 10/1 elsewhere.

A potential reneging on the refunds is a completely different situation given they haven't really accounted for that possibility in the T+Cs, especially when they have explicitly said there are no limits on the offer! This is all speculation though and the odds that Sky Bet do renege are pretty slim.
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Nico29
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« Reply #13 on: May 26, 2011, 09:17:12 PM »

It's perfectly legitimate for bookies to palp bets if they inform you before hand, not legitimate (though legal) to let the bet run and then void it when it wins. A palp can easily be justified and warranted if the bookie was clearly miles longer than the rest of the market, e.g. if the horse was 10/1 elsewhere.

Honestly i agree with yr points and approve of your morals, but if you think it dsnt go on then you are clearly living in cloud cuckoo land mate.

Don't mean to be rude, obv palp's are fair play-human error and all that, what is annoying is when they consistently-skybet are nowhere near the worst in this regards- take a bet fairly and then cry foul afterwards, when if it had lost nothing would have been said-that in my opinion is daylight robbery. Anyway i'm drifting off again and may need to delete such whinging as it tilts me when i revisit the thread!
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« Reply #14 on: May 26, 2011, 10:45:17 PM »

Bet 365 now going with this

'Place a pre-match bet on the Champions League final and we will give you a free In-Play bet to the same stake on the big match.

Simply place a bet before kick-off, then once the game starts place another bet on any In-Play market. If your FIRST In-Play bet loses we will refund this stake, up to the value of your largest pre-match bet (up to £50*).'

So for example if I bet £50 on Barca at evens pre match then £50 as soon as the game starts at evens I'm effectively getting Barca at 2/1?
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