Would you call?

[snoopy1239]

Simple question. Would you call the bet at the end? RickyButler was a pretty tight player, but had what I call 'poker turrets'. A nasty disease that I often suffer from. Anyway, now and then he'd do something really suspect and shove in a load of chips with an odd hand. One hand he raised to $45 preflop without anyone else entering the hand, and then showed A8 suited.


***** Hand History for Game 3305500071 *****
$200 NL Texas Hold'em - Monday, January 02, 21:36:29 EDT 2006

Table Table  66837 (6 max) (No DP) (Real Money)
Seat 4 is the button
Total number of players : 6

Seat 3: Mumu_1 ( $259.60 )
Seat 4: snoopy1239 ( $496.95 )
Seat 6: RickyButler ( $196.80 )
Seat 5: ZiggyPiggy1 ( $18.70 )
Seat 1: pat13116 ( $210.70 )
Seat 2: Harry_77 ( $205.70 )

ZiggyPiggy1 posts small blind [$1].
RickyButler posts big blind [$2].

** Dealing down cards **

Dealt to snoopy1239 [  ]

pat13116 calls [$2].
Harry_77 folds.
Mumu_1 folds.
snoopy1239 calls [$2].
ZiggyPiggy1 calls [$1].
RickyButler checks.

** Dealing Flop ** [ , , ]

ZiggyPiggy1 checks.
RickyButler bets [$6].
pat13116 folds.
snoopy1239 raises [$12].
ZiggyPiggy1 folds.
RickyButler calls [$6].

** Dealing Turn ** [ ]

RickyButler checks.
snoopy1239 bets [$15].
RickyButler raises [$45].
snoopy1239 calls [$30].

** Dealing River ** [ ]

RickyButler bets [$100].
snoopy1239 folds.
RickyButler shows [ ?, ? ]
RickyButler wins $219 from  the main pot  with a pair of queens.

[Royal Flush]

Leads on the flop then check raised the turn.

That scared the hell out of me, i would usually associate that as trips or TPTK

[thetank]

No I pass, (my tight ass woulda folded to the turn raise probably)

[Newmanseye]

I probably would call it on the end, it looks like he is trying to take the pot down too hard, like the turn gave him flush outs then missed on the river.   I might even raise.

[Royal Flush]

I would raise to 18/20 on the flop then check the turn and call a river bet.

P.S. Yet again i am a cash game fish please ignore all of the above.

[Newmanseye]

I probably would call it on the end, it looks like he is trying to take the pot down too hard, like the turn gave him flush outs then missed on the river.   I might even raise.

Ok I just realised that Snoop had the    but i would call, it looks fishy to me.

[ifm]

nope, but i'm a bigger fish than the biggest fish that ever lived.

[thetank]

 I might even raise.

To get that last $37?

The call is marginal, no need to make it more so by lumping in $137 rather than $100.

[Newmanseye]

you know me tank, I am better in live games, but when I read this I want to get my all my money in there, I think my Jack is good and he is over eager.


I might be wrong and probably am, but its just how i read it, I think the jack kicker is way infront.

[Newmanseye]

snoop did he show his hole cards?

[thetank]

you know me tank, I am better in live games, but when I read this I want to get my all my money in there, I think my Jack is good and he is over eager.


I might be wrong and probably am, but its just how i read it, I think the jack kicker is way infront.

My interpretation of the situation is your top pair, Jack kicker is not likely to be good. It's all about how unlikely and pot odds. 2.22 to 1 odds from the pot so if you think the chances of winning are better than that, call. If not, fold. It's quite marginal and there's no reason to give yourself 1.89 to 1 on your money instead by raising IMHO. I'd need 3 to 1 to call here so view raising as being a bad play.

[Newmanseye]

I see your point, but as i read it, I see his check raise, that was called, He then pushes I think to scare off snoop. It just looks fishy to me. I am probably over reading it in the wrong way, But If I was Ricky Butler and I was ahead, I would want to keep my customer, probably bet £30 fein weakness and then call all in or raise.

I could be wrong but we need snoop to tell us.

incidently I find this quite interesting, I use poker math along with interpreting the situations, and I let my gut override the math more than sometimes. Is this a Big flaw in my online play?

[thetank]

Here I really don't think its more than 50% likely that your hand is best. You only need to be best 31.25% to make a call correct though. I only think the QJ will be good 25% of the time and so would fold. Snoops decided that there was less than 31.25% chance of victory too, as he folded. I would not condemn calling as a bad play as I can understand someone who might think their chance of victory was 40% or thereabouts. They could well be right, I could well be wrong. I strongly doubt it's greater than 50% though.

incidently I find this quite interesting, I use poker math along with interpreting the situations, and I let my gut override the math more than sometimes. Is this a Big flaw in my online play?

If your instinct says that your hand is best more than 50% of the time here than I think your gut is the problem and needs some work. Try leaning to what your math is suggesting the next time you're undecided in this manner and see how you fare.

Note :- You'd need a little more than 50% chance of victory to make raising correct, as when he's on a complete bluff, he might not even call the extra $37. That won't make much difference here but I thought I'd point it out as it does factor into similar situations when the opponent has more $ behind him.

[Newmanseye]

Tank, I aggree with everything you posted. And you are probably right i need to work on my gut. ( instant abs is on the way.... I'll get my coat )


The challenge I have with the way Ricky is playing his hand, It just looks like a Q 7 or even another Q J.  The whole play looks a little over done.

I understand why snoop folded, I dont fault his logic at all. I just get the feeling he was infront.

[snoopy1239]

snoop did he show his hole cards?

Yes. He had Q7.

I called the turn because I thought I was ahead, but then second guessed myself when he put in such a strong bet on the river.

I thought my QJ as good because I couldn't see how he could check raise the turn with a better hand. He wasn't good enough to bet and then check raise a set.