Another Live Hand :)

[SuuPRlim]

$5/$10 at the Venetian.

Playing ~$4000

MP opens to $40 (playing $2800)
Button calls
I call in the SB with 

Flop is  ($130)

I donk $90

MP raises to $330

BTN folds

I call.

Turn  ($790)

I chk. He bets $580

I call

River  ($1,950)

I chk he chks.

Guy was around 26, again wearing a baseball cap and spoke pretty well, he'd been playing solid but I was pretty sure he was very good and almost defo a PRO.

Thoughts?

[cambridgealex]

I like it all, wp.

[DMorgan]

c/r turn really small imo

One he does his raise flop barrel turn shabang I don't think he's folding much to a turn c/r. He probably folds a hand like KQ but if he's good then he's probably gunna find the fold button on the river with KQ anyway. I think this is one of those spots vs a thinking player where you actually disguise your hand more by raising than you do by flatting.

You're trying to rep a loose peel on the flop and when you do peel the flop light you're almost always gunna try and rep the flush card on the turn if you have a hand like 9Thh that you decided to peel the flop raise with. Raising here also lets you set up a perfect 4/5ths pot river jam which is pretty much the nut bluff sizing imo

If you do check the turn I think you have to lead the river. I can legitimately see him checking back 666 on the river. I don't think he's ever betting AK. When you flat the turn there really isn't much that you can have besides flushes and sets, Kx with diamonds, maaaaaaaybe 97 but that got there too. Basically I think by flatting the turn you look pretty damn strong and he's checking back a ton, so you pretty much have to check/fold this river. If you take his river value range as KT, sets and flushes then you're losing to more combos than you're beating.

How many bluffs can he have? Well all of the draws except 75 got there and your hand looks a fair bit like a draw on the flop so I just don't think he's gunna barrel river very often. For him to get to the river with air he needs to have raised flop, barrelled turn with complete air and when everything gets there he'd have to be a bit of a sicko to empty the clip hoping that you're gunna fold sets or even Kx when you've come this far with it. Its definitely possible but I think its unlikely.

[LFmagic]

J'adore a big turn donk bet as well, I think he's going to fold a lot of rivers if you donk turn and then bet big/put him in on the end but who knows; you're certainly going to throw someone who grinds these games for a living out of their comfort zone if you start doing stuff like that and the times he does fold the end you can take the pot down and work on developing a really crazy image without showdown. I'm not sure about how good a check raise on the turn is but a check jam is really sexy but totally image and metagame dependent.

Get back at me if you think I'm off my rocker in regards to this, I consider myself a nlh cash fish as it is #notenoughcards

[LFmagic]

"probation is a bitch but going back is not an option"

[George2Loose]

Lfmagic itt 

[muckthenuts]

If you do check the turn I think you have to lead the river.

[pleno1]

donk b/f river not srue on sizing though. c/r turn and jamming gets a bunnnnnch of folds.

what was his timing on the flop c/r and the turn bet, and ur calls on both?

[bhoywonder]

Steaks too high for me...can't help....but wp

[smashedagain]

i like the check. win whats there or lose a lot if you bet n he raises

[pleno1]

its actually a really bad turn card for him to bluff imo. I think river is suepr interesting as he goes for big value on turn with free showdown on river if that makes sense. I expect him to check back kq and stuff on river but fold if he c/r turn. So I hink c/c turn, donk river is best. Although ofc I don't think we are very balanced here at all.

[DMorgan]

its actually a really bad turn card for him to bluff imo

Which is why I'm weighting his range way more towards value hands than bluffs but there are a ton of bad rivers for his value hands and he isn't folding  AdK or sets to a turn min c/r  ad he might not even fold QdK

[SuuPRlim]

my thought process in the hand...

Flop = I think with the stacks as they are it's going to be VERY unlikely for anyone to raise a flush draw OTF, I think the only two combo's he raises are   and   and i still don't think he raises these two 100% of the time, he obviously bets most of his flush draws when chked to with the PF initiative so I think c/calling is the worst flop line by far. Once I've bet and he;s raises I can be reasonably confident that my equity is exclusive. I think it goes c/f > b/c > b/f > c/c in order of preferable flop lines and I think the first two are almost always near on identical.

Turn = I dont think he would expect me to bet/call a flush draw on the flop ALL that often (as It happens I would do nearly always lol, but I don;t think that is stnd for live games) so I figure he is gonna weight me towards way more marginal stuff, and hands like   ,   ,   ,   ,   will defo bet the turn again and he's prolly gonna expect the majoirty of my range to be chk/folding now, given how he is rarely light on the turn. The problem is tho that I can't see any hands in the above range aside from   or   calling a turn chk/jam and once I've flatted I look insanely strong...

River = Jamming looks 100% like a flush and might force 88's to fold, again the problem I think I have is that the majority of his range will have enough showdown value to chk back (AK as a great example) and the range that I beat that wants to legit bet for value is really thin (in fact its pretty much just 66/88/KK) so I'm pretty torn in this spot as to whether I should be jamming/chk calling or chk folding, dont really know the answer...

I think i agree that whereas my range is pretty fuckign strong when I raise the turn, but will long term gain far more value (even though he is prolly folding a high % and getting it in with me drawing dead a small %) than the pretty impossible river situation I find myself in....

[SuuPRlim]

c/r turn really small imo

might be the answer

[Patonius2000]

I think donk/calling the flop is pretty bad. You're oop with 4 high against an uncapped range with terrible visibilty (i.e. you're basically bluffcatching when you turn gin and you have no showdown value). I would much rather b/f flop or b/3b small if you think you get a lot of folds. I don't think 3betting small creates too many difficult turn situations if he flats.
I'd probably squeeze this hand pre aswell, I think it's a little too bad to call with and I'd rather play it with the initiative. As played I like the way you played turn/river.