my thought process in the hand...
Flop = I think with the stacks as they are it's going to be VERY unlikely for anyone to raise a flush draw OTF, I think the only two combo's he raises are
and
and i still don't think he raises these two 100% of the time, he obviously bets most of his flush draws when chked to with the PF initiative so I think c/calling is the worst flop line by far. Once I've bet and he;s raises I can be reasonably confident that my equity is exclusive. I think it goes c/f > b/c > b/f > c/c in order of preferable flop lines and I think the first two are almost always near on identical.
Turn = I dont think he would expect me to bet/call a flush draw on the flop ALL that often (as It happens I would do nearly always lol, but I don;t think that is stnd for live games) so I figure he is gonna weight me towards way more marginal stuff, and hands like
,
,
,
,
will defo bet the turn again and he's prolly gonna expect the majoirty of my range to be chk/folding now, given how he is rarely light on the turn. The problem is tho that I can't see any hands in the above range aside from
or
calling a turn chk/jam and once I've flatted I look insanely strong...
River = Jamming looks 100% like a flush and might force 88's to fold, again the problem I think I have is that the majority of his range will have enough showdown value to chk back (AK as a great example) and the range that I beat that wants to legit bet for value is really thin (in fact its pretty much just 66/88/KK) so I'm pretty torn in this spot as to whether I should be jamming/chk calling or chk folding, dont really know the answer...
I think i agree that whereas my range is pretty fuckign strong when I raise the turn, but will long term gain far more value (even though he is prolly folding a high % and getting it in with me drawing dead a small %) than the pretty impossible river situation I find myself in....