He could easily be value betting AA (unlikely aces but I have to keep them in there), AQ, JJ, TT, 99 which are deffo hands in his range. As long as he can't put me on a K (which he may struggle to do given my line) then he's ahead. Could also be a blocker bet to try and get to showdown with these hands.
He's far too committed to justify folding these hands after I come over the top for not a great deal more. If he does fold then I take the pot down uncontested, nice.
Hands that crush us are obv 55. But there's no way I can see him flatting this pre oop.
AK and QQ he's certainly 4betting after what I saw he shoved on Pizzecato in an earlier hand for a decent amount of bb's. Especially as he's oop. No way he's called pre and come this far with 22.
That only leaves KQ to crush us. Not many combos of this hand left huh. To me, that leaves his range behind what I have as there are more combo's of my assigned value range for him than combos that crush us.
If he has played one of these hands trickily then I'm happy saying gg after my shove.
Just my thoughts anyway. If anybody's willing to point out exactly why my thinking is flawed then I'm all ears.
Cheers
These are your words not mine.
So I 3bet to get the fold. I 3bet small, as I knew that if he did have a premium hand he would certainly come back over the top
That pretty much rules out AA, AK, QQ and JJ (JJ is close). He probably flats 10s through to
(given that he's flatted
, he's flatting every pair it would seem).
Villain pretty much never ever donk leads for 4k on the river with AQ, 10s or worse. Never. You seem to be forgetting he's donk leading the river. He can never ever be bluffing here, his line represents no sort of missed draw; therefore what is he really going to be doing that with? If he has AQ he's almost certainly check calling the river.
I really don't think you've given the strength of his possible holdings on the river enough thought. There's very few value betting hands in there which makes the river shove terrible.
This idea of "go big or go home" that you seem to have with regards to the river shove is a losing play over time. Ask any player you respect for their opinion (and who is a winning player) and I'd be amazed if they advocated a shove here.
I find a fold nearly impossible due to pot odds etc, but it's an easy call and when he shows the hand that he does, I then start to consider the next spot available to me to get my stack in. Shoving is just bad. No doubt about it.
Author