3b lolz

[Pinchop73]

Many thanks for the replies guys.

I don't really know anybody to ask their opinion, just me and myself, so many thanks for the advice.

I still don't get the call on the river.

If I feel I'm ahead how can I only call? I'm loosing tons of value.

If I feel I'm behind, how can I justify calling? I'll throw in the 4k to see what he has just to be certain I'm behind?

How is calling the most +ev move? If the donk lead/ thin value bet/ blocker bet seems incred strong to you, and you don't feel he'd do this with AQ TT JJ, how can you call?

I know its 4k to win 18k so only need 22% equity, is this your reasoning?

[piestack]

thinking you're ahead is not a reason to bet/raise to get value.

[millidonk]

Many thanks for the replies guys.

I don't really know anybody to ask their opinion, just me and myself, so many thanks for the advice.

I still don't get the call on the river.

If I feel I'm ahead how can I only call? I'm loosing tons of value.

If I feel I'm behind, how can I justify calling? I'll throw in the 4k to see what he has just to be certain I'm behind?

How is calling the most +ev move? If the donk lead/ thin value bet/ blocker bet seems incred strong to you, and you don't feel he'd do this with AQ TT JJ, how can you call?

I know its 4k to win 18k so only need 22% equity, is this your reasoning?

The times you think you are ahead and jam just for him to fold + the times you think you are ahead and jam just for him to snap you off when you are crushed massively outweigh the times you jam for 'value' and get paid off by a worse hand. ergo it is a bad play to jam, massively -ev. only imo of course.  With your knowledge of oppo and the way the hand played only ever calling the river.

[Cf]

If you are ahead:

Call and win 4k.
Shove and win 4k as he'll fold anything worse

If you are behind:

Call and lose 4k
Shove and lose your stack

Therefore calling is better.

[Pinchop73]

The shove is only like a min raise.

Why would villain not call the shove? It's another 4k to win a 26k pot, he only needs 15% equity.

If you say we should call his river bet, why shouldn't he call our raise? Essentially the same pot odds?

If he's not calling our raise with worse, how do you justify a call yourself? Even though pot odds are extremely favourable, if your certain that he's uber strong then fold is surely the correct decision.

thinking you're ahead is not a reason to bet/raise to get value.

What reasons do you need to bet or raise for value sir?

[EvilPie]

Villain has either bet the river for value or as a bluff.

If he's bet for value the worst hand he has is Kx

Ok he could possibly have AA but I think he even check calls that.

The only hands you beat are Kx where x is lower than 9 and not matching one of those other little cards or the unlikely AA.

So for your shove to get called and you to be ahead you need him to have one of those Kx hands or AA.

If you had complete air here then your shove would actually be a lot better. I mean what else can you have apart from the king minimum right?

Without some funky dynamics meaning that he could be value betting light this is always a call.

[cambridgealex]

These game theory spots are really crucial you get your head round mate, I think CFs post is the clearest.

It's an extension of the bluff-catcher concept - say you have KQ on AK222 and your opponent bets.

a) your opponent is bluffing
b) your opponent is betting for value A, 2 or K.

It makes no sense to raise because if you're ahead he'll just fold all his air, and if you're behind he's not going to fold an Ace or anything so no point raising.

If you can't raise for value and you can't raise as a bluff, don't raise.

[cambridgealex]

In this case however I disagree that villain won't ever call worse though. Tbh i've forgotten most of the hand now lol but if the river bet is blockerish AND the shove is only a tiny raise then ppl in these live comps will just sigh and shrug and chuck the rest it usually muttering "too much in there" or similar.

[baltic_blonde]

If you are ahead:

Call and win 4k.
Shove and win 4k as he'll fold anything worse

If you are behind:

Call and lose 4k
Shove and lose your stack

Therefore calling is better.

Spot on!

[SuuPRlim]

The way to solve the spot once and for all is to decide what the gap is between the range that bet/folds and the range that bet/calls the river AFTER betting the 4k, obviously its near on impossible to nail but if we use the info/reads this thread has thrown up


Player,Equity,Wins Hi,Ties Hi
Ks9s,                           75.0000%,75.0000%,0.0000%
"99-QQ, AQ, KQ, 55",    25.0000%,25.0000%,0.0000%

Lets say his range to bet the 4k is these hands for sake of argument. Obv we know we're now not folding as we need ~22% to call it off.

Lets give this his calling range after we jam.

Player,Equity,Wins Hi,Ties Hi
Ks9s,                      57.1429%,57.1429%,0.0000%
"QQ, AQ, KQ, 55",   42.8571%,42.8571%,0.0000%

the jam is going to cost us 8800, to win 31,800. leaving us needing to be called by a worse hand 27% of the time.

SO I honestly reckon this is prolly a jam in this spot.

***HOWEVER - The points made previously are still very valid, especially the point piestack made about thinking you're ahead NOT necessarily being the reason to raise/bet for value, like Alex said, whenever we're betting or raising the two primary reasons should be,

a) we're betting for value, to get called by X range of hands which villain can legitimately hold
b) we're betting to make villain fold X hands in his range, which we think he can have and will fold,

if you reckon you're 90% vs his range in a spot, but he calls with worse 0% of the time then we shouldn't be raising, whereas we could have shown profit in this particular spot by jamming when we're only 40% vs his calling range on the river.

[Pharo]

Hey.

Pre-flop is fine.

There is no such thing as way ahead/way behind on the river. There is only ahead and behind. This is an important distinction because they require different responses.

If the villain is at all competent at poker I would bet the flop. I'm only checking if I think he doesn't understand C-bets and light 3-bets.

It's unclear to me how much more a raise on the river would be but these guys did a good job of explaining why raising is not automatically the correct play just because you think you are probably ahead.

[piestack]

not gonna quote the whole superlim post but its better written than how i could be saying it innit. also agree with the shoving for them what reasons said in above aforementioned post. 

[Pinchop73]

Cheers guys. I don't have pokerstove installed in my head, but I knew it was marginal at the time. Many thanks for that analysis suuPRlim.

Many thanks for everyone's advice too, appreciate it. Ta

[Steve Swift]

I don't reply to these things very often as i suppose i don't have the confidence.  It always  amazes me to some of the concullsions and reads  you lovely people come to,  all of these mid game/hand.


However my thought are rather more basic and that is, if i have the worst hand i am out, i have nothing to gain ifi shove and  he does  LD, i can and we all have got back in a Tourney with 10bb's, where as if we are wrong we are out of the door.  For that reason alone i only call river.   Is my 10 bb better than nothing thinking  flawed?


Steve 

[EvilPie]

You can run the numbers with whatever ranges you like I still don't like the river shove.

Fair enough it may be mathematically correct but the risk/reward just isn't worth it imo.

I'm not a big fan of the "it's my tournament life" mentality but in this case I'm not risking getting ko'd for the sake of winning an extra 4800 chips if he happens to have a hand good enough to call but bad enough to lose.

Interesting hand though.