JT blue. flop line

[AlexMartin]

call pre 100%, perfect hand to go 3way with this psr. Flop play, close, prefer raise calling it off to calling though i think. We rep just enough value combos to get away with it/only 1 real bluff. Prob with flatting flop is i dont really like our turn options if villain sizes badly (big) which he will do. fun hand would love to hear more responses, rupert/keys?

[cambridgealex]

Also Dan, if we turn FD we surely can call another bet profitably.

Board:
Dead: 

   equity    win    tie          pots won    pots tied   
Hand 0:    31.818%     31.82%    00.00%               546            0.00   { JdTd }
Hand 1:    68.182%     68.18%    00.00%              1170            0.00   { AA, QQ, 99, AJs+, AJo+ }



If we flat the 60 otf then the pot ott will be ~240. He has 300 left so we're calling £x to win £540 so with 31.8% we can call up to 172

[cambridgealex]

call pre 100%, perfect hand to go 3way with this psr. Flop play, close, prefer raise calling it off to calling though i think. We rep just enough value combos to get away with it/only 1 real bluff. Prob with flatting flop is i dont really like our turn options if villain sizes badly (big) which he will do. fun hand would love to hear more responses, rupert/keys?

yeh, i think its interesting. i mean i didnt like calling the flop, i didnt like raising with awkward stack sizes, though can see it's perhaps best. and i didnt like folding ldo.

[DMorgan]

lol by the job centre bit I mean we all make bad calls sometimes

Though your last point has some merit, I think it relies too much on him jamming the turn.

I accept that you may call fold some of the time (maybe 10% tops).  But much more of the time the fella behind simply calls and we are sitting pretty with the right implied odds.

and of this range
{ AA, QQ, 99, AJs+, AJo+ }
he bombs just AA, QQ, 99  and AQ?  AK and AJ, doesn't your average live nit start praying for the river on that board?  and nobody ever checks the set on the turn?  or bets half his stack?

I'm assuming that you plucked the 10% number out of thin air - you're suggesting that only 10% of his preflop 3betting range 2 barrels this board? You mention the 'average live nit' but what do you think he's 3betting? If its 88+, AJ+ then he's firing 2 on this board a big %age of the time.

He doesn't have to jam the turn to make us fold. Even if he only bets half his stack on the turn he's betting 150 with 150 behind. You still calling then?

I also think that you're overestimating how often the button overcalls the flop. I can't think of many hands that he peels when Alex calls the cbet on a reasonably dry board

[DMorgan]

Also Dan, if we turn FD we surely can call another bet profitably.

Board:
Dead:  

   equity    win    tie          pots won    pots tied   
Hand 0:    31.818%     31.82%    00.00%               546            0.00   { JdTd }
Hand 1:    68.182%     68.18%    00.00%              1170            0.00   { AA, QQ, 99, AJs+, AJo+ }



If we flat the 60 otf then the pot ott will be ~240. He has 300 left so we're calling £x to win £540 so with 31.8% we can call up to 172

This assumes that we get the rest 100% of the time. You only turn a flush draw 20% of the time too

The draw is actually decently disguised though, can't see him being too scared of backdoor diamonds if it comes in

[DMorgan]

Also I didn't say that calling pre was bad, I just said I'm not a huge fan of it. Obv in game i'm never folding pre.

I think when I posted that I assumed button would fold a lot more than he actually will which is pretty much never

[cambridgealex]

Also Dan, if we turn FD we surely can call another bet profitably.

Board:
Dead: 

   equity    win    tie          pots won    pots tied   
Hand 0:    31.818%     31.82%    00.00%               546            0.00   { JdTd }
Hand 1:    68.182%     68.18%    00.00%              1170            0.00   { AA, QQ, 99, AJs+, AJo+ }



If we flat the 60 otf then the pot ott will be ~240. He has 300 left so we're calling £x to win £540 so with 31.8% we can call up to 172

This assumes that we get the rest 100% of the time. You only turn a flush draw 20% of the time too

I think thats a fair enough assumption though?

When turn bricks we have to fold to another bet of course, but I think the backdoor flush is actually pretty important as it means 20% of the time we can profitably see the river as well, thus fully realising our flop equity, without putting the lot in.

Pre, dont see the button EVER folding pre. He may overcall the flop but hey thats fine. As I said before, he's very rarely raising the flop. 

[Doobs]

lol by the job centre bit I mean we all make bad calls sometimes

Though your last point has some merit, I think it relies too much on him jamming the turn.

I accept that you may call fold some of the time (maybe 10% tops).  But much more of the time the fella behind simply calls and we are sitting pretty with the right implied odds.

and of this range
{ AA, QQ, 99, AJs+, AJo+ }
he bombs just AA, QQ, 99  and AQ?  AK and AJ, doesn't your average live nit start praying for the river on that board?  and nobody ever checks the set on the turn?  or bets half his stack?

I'm assuming that you plucked the 10% number out of thin air - you're suggesting that only 10% of his preflop 3betting range 2 barrels this board? You mention the 'average live nit' but what do you think he's 3betting? If its 88+, AJ+ then he's firing 2 on this board a big %age of the time.

the player left to act on the flop didn't 3 bet pre ffs.  we call here we se the turn 90% of the time, hardly think this is exagerrating.

[Dubai]

Yeah might even buy at 90%

[DMorgan]

When you said 'you might call fold' I assumed you meant call flop fold turn

The point being that we rarely see a river because imo the 3bettor is also betting the turn a big %age of the time since this board smashes his 3betting range and we can't profitably peel the turn unless we turn a diamond and even then its close

[Dubai]

Dunno its live. They pot control Ak on the turn by checking and stuff

[DMorgan]

Dunno its live. They pot control Ak on the turn by checking and stuff

Definitely disagree - don't think he needs 2pr+ to fire again

[Dubai]

Well the only non 2pair hand is AK so its basically the same thing anyway.

[Dubai]

If turn is QJT98 they are checking AK way more than you think btw. Plus he is check folding KK JJ TT 88

This aint Vegas. Its semi-north England, people are looking to fold more than they are to stack off. Probably doesnt wanna go home and face a life of obscurity with his missus so is happy making "folds"

[Doobs]

When you said 'you might call fold' I assumed you meant call flop fold turn

The point being that we rarely see a river because imo the 3bettor is also betting the turn a big %age of the time since this board smashes his 3betting range and we can't profitably peel the turn unless we turn a diamond and even then its close

sorry, thought one of us must be misunderstanding the other