Interesting river spot with top pair

[cambridgealex]

1/2 Cash. Straddled to 4. A limper or two. Fish in the SB thinks it's 8straddle so accidentally raises to 8.

We call with from the BB then Villain makes it 28 from the straddle. One limper calls, fish calls, I call.

I have 900, Villain covers, Fish has 400.

Flop (122) I check, Villain checks, other two check.

Turn (112) SB checks, I check, Villain bets £60. 1 fold, SB tanks and calls. I call quickly.

River (292) SB tanks and checks, I check fairly quickly, Villain tanks for a while, cutting out a few different betsizes, then settles on £180. SB tanks for a long time and folds. HERO?

Reads: Obviously very important to this hand. Villain is from a young guy from Kazakhstan. Plays a lot at Gala 50/1. Deals for tips after hours in the Gala cardroom. Last few days has been going on a spin up though, and has been playing in the bigger games at DTD, running well. He is the biggest mark in the game. Running like god, winning about 1.5k. Plays very loose and fishy when he's winning like this. Is feeling in the zone and confident. Shown a few bluffs, but for smaller amounts. Not sure about his ability to bluff in a spot like this. Unlikely I would've thought. However, if ever he was capable of making a 180 bluff, it would be now (as in, now he is winning such a lot and in the frame of mind he was in).

He is never value betting 1pair. He isn't the type to check an Ace on the flop so I'm confident he doesn't have AK. I'm not even sure he'd value bet a non-nut 2pair in this spot, especially not for this betsize. The length of time that the SB took to fold leads me to believe he had an Ace also, thus ruling out AA for our villain. Villain also raises bigger pre with AA and KK, although this is the least certain of the reads. He definitely wouldn't bet the turn with QQ or JJ or TT. And even if he would, he's not capable of turning QQ or JJ into a bluff. Can't see him betting QJ on the turn. Probably would with QJ hearts though, although not sure he'd 3b this pre.

Btw, I overcall the turn because the SB is a massive fish and could definitely be calling with worse.

I was really stuck with this one and not sure whether I made the right decision.

[DMorgan]

I fold, expect to see KK and 99 a lot

[stato_1]

dont like pre. Iso the fish in the first place and if you dont know what to do here then fold to the raise

[WotRTheChances]

Yup, fold pre / ISO fish.... probs just fold. I fold river too, it's the kinda -ev guessing game spot you get put in a ridic % of the time here.

[jakally]

Would raise pre once the SB has made it 8.
Some money in the pot to hoover up, and most of the time you get it HU against the SB.

Don't mind the flat though, but once the BB pops it up I would fold.... A7  is an ugh hand to be playing in an inflated pot OOP.

As played, the river is probs a live reads spot...... as you say not many genuine hands he can have, just a case of whether he is acting like he  has one of them.

[SuuPRlim]

agree with the preflop, its pretty tempting to flick it in when your vs two fish, and I often would in game, but I think you're gonna be in a slight reverse implied spot quite a lot, when the straddles range is actually stronger than your hand and with stacks as they are you're gonna be in a bit of a pickle with draws post and the optimal line will still end up being a slight losing one a lot.

I prolly call the river but its almost certainly a bad call lol

[cambridgealex]

Yeh, pre is a clear raise, not sure why I didn't tbh. I also think its a clear peel for 20 more to create a pot of 122 closing the action. 450bbs deep vs the biggest fish on the table, even oop with a suited Ace seems like a perfectly fine situation. Definitely think I have a good enough grasp of the villains game that I'll be able to fold on Ace high flops maybe even to one bet.

If this villain cbets this board, I'd expect him to have me beat a large amount of the time, so I'd probably peel one and fold the turn if he continues and I didn't hit my two pair or backdoor frush draw. So the reserve implied odds are pretty small imo.

When he doesn't cbet this flop I'm definitely good vs him. the king didn't worry me too much as I really didn't think he'd make it so small pre with KK. he'd make it at least 35 with Kings or Aces imo. Dan, can't see him checking a set of 99s on the flop here either, especially Ahigh flop 4ways, this guy would definitely bet hoping someone had an Ace.

[DMorgan]

Your description of the guy as a pretty big fish makes me think that he's more likely to check a set than bet it with two players behind

[cambridgealex]

Your description of the guy as a pretty big fish makes me think that he's more likely to check a set than bet it with two players behind

nah not this guy, hard to describe him, he plays strange, not so much fishy, dunno how to describe him better. I'm just saying what I think he'd do with certain hands.

btw, only one player behind him. he is straddle, sb and me in bb both checked.

[DMorgan]

Sounds like you have more information than can be conveyed here so pretty tough to make an accurate assessment

If you think that he's always betting the flop when he has the best hand/a combo draw and he's also capable of bluffing the river here then i'd say its a call because he doesn't rep much at all but you'd need a read that he'll fire into two people twice with air because in my experience the vast majority of people just give up on this river (which isn't really a brick) when they picked up 2 callers on the turn

[cambridgealex]

Sounds like you have more information than can be conveyed here so pretty tough to make an accurate assessment

If you think that he's always betting the flop when he has the best hand/a combo draw and he's also capable of bluffing the river here then i'd say its a call because he doesn't rep much at all but you'd need a read that he'll fire into two people twice with air because in my experience the vast majority of people just give up on this river (which isn't really a brick) when they picked up 2 callers on the turn

I know that was my dilemma. I can't put him on anything but maybe KK and maybe QJ hearts. Both of which I wasn't sure he'd play like that (KK raise more pre, QJhh not sure he'd 3b pre) and its just such a small combination of hands. 7 combinations in fact.

On the other side of the coin, I can't see him bluffing into two players in this spot very often, if ever.

And I'm getting 3.6:1 on a call so gotta be right 27% of the time.

[Solaris]

The bit about him cutting out different bet sizes intrigues me. Was he getting progressively bigger with his selections? Often live I've tended to watch as people who are bluffing go back to their stack repeatedly to add more to their bet in order to get their opponents off their hand. Could be the case here.

I'm struggling to put him on much of a hand other than or KK. Then again, with the hand played out as it is, it just doesn't seem overly likely he's bluffing too often here.

Could we ever be seeing KQ here? He turns his pair and a gutter so could decide to bet out with that perhaps? Does he 3 bet with KQ?

[piestack]

you seem to rule out every hand pre.
if he's not 3betting with qj and not 3betting this amount with aa/kk then it doesn't leave much that he is 3betting pre.

postflop, he's played it very much like kk.

also agree with the bet size. if he's gone down to 180 it is usually a hand and vice veresa

[cambridgealex]

The bit about him cutting out different bet sizes intrigues me. Was he getting progressively bigger with his selections? Often live I've tended to watch as people who are bluffing go back to their stack repeatedly to add more to their bet in order to get their opponents off their hand. Could be the case here.

I'm struggling to put him on much of a hand other than or KK. Then again, with the hand played out as it is, it just doesn't seem overly likely he's bluffing too often here.

Could we ever be seeing KQ here? He turns his pair and a gutter so could decide to bet out with that perhaps? Does he 3 bet with KQ?

It was more like he was just unsure about how much to bet. He grabbed two pinks (100s) and some blacks (25s) and shuffled them a bit. Was thinking for a while. Then just used the one pink, 3blacks and one red (5).

He could definitely have KQ on the turn, but isn't good enough to try and turn it into a bluff on the river.

you seem to rule out every hand pre.
if he's not 3betting with qj and not 3betting this amount with aa/kk then it doesn't leave much that he is 3betting pre.

postflop, he's played it very much like kk.

also agree with the bet size. if he's gone down to 180 it is usually a hand and vice veresa

yeh pre just confused me. He's only been playing a few months so he's changing quite quickly. i.e. playing very differently this session to a week ago for example, when he had £30 on the 50/1 and was playing really tight. The raise seemed more like he had a nice hand than a premium. Maybe AQ, AJ, suited broadways, 77-TT. Those sorts of hands.

[Solaris]

I'm struggling to see what his bluffing range is given all the comments you've made. You say you don't think he's capable of value betting 1 pair OTR and that he's not good enough to turn a hand like KQ into a bluff OTR either; you also suggest he won't bluff QQ or JJ on the turn, so what exactly is he capable of having?

Given your description of his play etc it looks a clear fold, just getting decent odds I can't see you being good often enough to make the call.