River overbet @ Luton G wednesday £50f/o

[boldie]

Sigh, if you have to 3 bet pre against a station (like others said, bad idea) you have to lead out on the flop.

Why check it to him on the flop?? Then you hit your set on the turn and decide to lead into him? why?

IF you check the flop, I would check the turn so he can bet into you.

I now call BTW, so I can go home and think about how badly I mangled the hand

[SuuPRlim]

This is level 2 - I don't understand why people don't think this can be a bluff given that:

"has taken down a few sizeable pots uncontested by overbetting the river. He has overbet 4 or 5 times uncontested, whether ip or oop."

I'm calling this.

just because someone has done something in the past dont level urself into thinking whenever they do it again its for the same reason. In this spot our hero has a really weak range, and as a result is pretty polarized (or certainly will be perceived to be) because I think in general people assume that passive lines re either a weak hand or a monster "slow-playing"

So why would a bluff ever bet really big when a bet of 40% pot will prolly get through the weak parts of our range nearly always. And what hands except for missed hearts is he bluffing with, and how many HH combo's does he realistically have OTT,  ,  , and any  Xh bet the flop IP almost always, and we have the  . so assuming he doesnt have stuff like  and  , its basically just  ,  ,  and he wont always peel these to a 3bet imo.

Seemed like a fold at first, seems a pretty easy fold to me after a bit of thought.

[Simon Galloway]

So why would a bluff ever bet really big when a bet of 40% pot will prolly get through the weak parts of our range nearly always.

You may have thought of that.  And it may be heavily weighted to you reaching your conclusion to fold.  But, I very much doubt the guy betting the river thought of that.

[AlexMartin]

nut hand to turn into a bluff...... dunno if that works at luton in a £50er though.

[Chompy]

All in pre

[SuuPRlim]

nut hand to turn into a bluff...... dunno if that works at luton in a £50er though.

This seems awfully optimistic Alex.

[Pinchop73]

Many thanks for all the replies people, great advice again.

Shoving the river crossed my mind, seriously.

I 3bet because the guy had been opening from UTG nearly every orbit. I struggle to fold a hand this strong with this in mind, I really don't like flatting oop, so I 3bet with fold equity in mind. Man I need to nit up.

I decided to check the flop. With such a draw heavy board, I would have hated a pretty difficult decision if he'd raised me.

So I bet the turn. I did this for value obv as he'd never have me on a T after checking the flop. When he only calls, I have three things on my mind as I wait for the river:

- He has jack shit and is floating hoping to hit a nasty card.
- He has a genuine draw, hoping to hit a J, 6 or a h.
- He already has a full house. If he has Tx then I felt he would almost certainly raise the turn big to prevent a river appearing.

. Balls.

Once I take the weak line and check, I felt villain could easily be balancing his value overbet range here with total air/missed draw.

But I felt his value range far outweighed the bluffs in his hand. Even though he's already overbet a few times and surely not had it everytime, I conceded that he's far more likely to have it in this spot than not, so I folded.

[Pinchop73]

Please may I have some feedback on my though process? Should I have a different thought process at any/all points?

Fyi, very next orbit villain opens UTG, again.

BB (just moved to table, but is aware of villains tendencies) 3bets which villain flats, and proceeds to donk into villain on flop and turn which villain simply calls. BB now checks the river on quite a dry J high board, no real draws came in. Villain overbets, again. BB tanks then calls and is insta shown pocket Q's.

[Nico29]

Please may I have some feedback on my though process? Should I have a different thought process at any/all points?

Fyi, very next orbit villain opens UTG, again.

BB (just moved to table, but is aware of villains tendencies) 3bets which villain flats, and proceeds to donk into villain on flop and turn which villain simply calls. BB now checks the river on quite a dry J high board, no real draws came in. Villain overbets, again. BB tanks then calls and is insta shown pocket Q's.

Ok. You said in yr prev post that- ' I 3bet because the guy had been opening from UTG nearly every orbit. I struggle to fold a hand this strong with this in mind,'

A10 is not that strong a hand. Certainly not in this position this deep. Folding pre is cert +ev.

You also said 'I decided to check the flop. With such a draw heavy board, I would have hated a pretty difficult decision if he'd raised me.'

Surely this explains why 3betting pre oop is such a leak. You hit top top and are concerned that on this wet a board you either might have to play for stacks or/and be behind.

You bet to protect your hand on this flop and for value from worse. Of course if we are raised or flatted we can assign our opponent a certain range and somewhat reevaluate but checking for pot control kinda outlines why we need to just fold pre.

Outa interest if he bets the flop what do you do? Check call and call/fold some turns/rivers? Aren't we overcomplicating a 50fo where we are still deep and should be looking to play in position versus this fishy oppo?

Surely if we play oop we need to have set plans for our hand post and pretty strict guidelines.

For example what exactly do we want to achieve with our 3b pre here? From your description of villain he's not folding pre and thus we inflate a pot oop with a mod mod hand.

So bar a kqj flop what on earth do we want to flop, i guess 101010 wldnt be bad nor aaa. But in reality such an inflation oop is always gonna cause tricky decisions v this oppo which we really dont need to have.

'So I bet the turn. I did this for value obv as he'd never have me on a T after checking the flop.'

Fineaments.


'Once I take the weak line and check, I felt villain could easily be balancing his value overbet range here with total air/missed draw.'

Obv but are you sure you aren't giving yr oppo huge credit for things like balancing and range etc, most of these players think balance means bank and range means golf.


'But I felt his value range far outweighed the bluffs in his hand. Even though he's already overbet a few times and surely not had it everytime, I conceded that he's far more likely to have it in this spot than not, so I folded.'

Agree.

Endaments.

God im drunk, sorry if this is bs.

[AlexMartin]

nut hand to turn into a bluff...... dunno if that works at luton in a £50er though.

This seems awfully optimistic Alex.

too much levelling itt

[cambridgealex]

Good post from a drunk man Nico!

[Patonius2000]

lol @ calling the river. Pre is bad too.

[Nit Tendencies]

I had a pretty long response to this typed out, but then I realised that it's completely unnecessary because this is really easy.

Fold pre because regardless of your correct identification that he's got a wide opening range so we can open our value range in response, our hand doesn't flop very well and is going to be very difficult to play profitably oop in an inflated pot. Fold pre.

If you get to the river somehow, check fold. What hand can he even have that he's bluffing with.

Fold pre Fold pre Fold pre Fold pre Fold pre Fold pre Fold pre Fold pre