DTD 300- Tough spot or easiest fold ever

[zerofive]

Villian now jams

and then I chundah'd EVERYWAH.

[GreekStein]

You've told us he has Aces but I'm still not folding here.

Imo he has AK more often than Aces and you'll see some raaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaandomly played JJ/QQ sometimes too.

[George2Loose]

Least consensus is mixed which makes me feel better

[Boba Fett]

You've told us he has Aces but I'm still not folding here.

Imo he has AK more often than Aces and you'll see some raaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaandomly played JJ/QQ sometimes too.

How much more often does he show up here with QQ/JJ than AA?  I agree completely with the part I highlighted but if you're losing or chopping more often than winning then its surely a fold?  Our equity in the tournament doesnt increase by nearly enough if we double up here .

[redarmi]

Our equity in the tournament doesnt increase by nearly enough if we double up here .

Comes down to this really with such a close decision.  I find a fold against a random but it is realy villain dependent but I think if you are tanking for ages then the villain isn't spewy enough to make this a call.

[SuuPRlim]

Our equity in the tournament doesnt increase by nearly enough if we double up here .

THIS.

seems like a pretty bad call all in all.

[muckthenuts]

A station raising pre sets off an alarm, having the   removing some fd combo's is also pretty siginificant so i think i'm in the fold camp. He prob does spaz out with KQ-KT but these likely dont feature in his 3b range. He has no reason to think you're particularly weak at any point in this hand so when he bombs turn i'm very inclined to think it's for value.

[Nit Tendencies]

This is going to sound stupid. Cos I don't really buy people who talk about blockers. Got to be the most ridic theory ever.

Rofl at this. George you're a smart guy, how can you "not buy" such a simple concept.

Anyway, that's not the point of the thread.

Do we know any kind of rough idea about his 3bet range? Because from your description of him I think a tight 3bet range is a reasonable assumption. He sounds more cally than aggro, but he's obviously one of these guys that tries to get their entire stack in when they think they have the best hand.

Which means that He's either got AK/KK/AA (but way less likely to have KK because of his sizing) if we think his preflop range is AA-JJ AK. He's going to slow down with QQ/JJ on the turn, so I would definitely fold.

Also, even if he is spacking off randomly we can safely assume that our edge on this field is way bigger than our edge in this hand. I think the risk/reward concept is something which a lot of people underrate (including myself). We just give away too much equity by taking such marginal spots in such a soft tournament.

So yeah, I would call flop hoping for him to slow down then fold turn pretty quickly.

[Nit Tendencies]

Also, very very surprised that there are so many people saying call and even suggesting that it's a super easy call. That's absolutely insane.

[George2Loose]

This is going to sound stupid. Cos I don't really buy people who talk about blockers. Got to be the most ridic theory ever.

Rofl at this. George you're a smart guy, how can you "not buy" such a simple concept.

Anyway, that's not the point of the thread.

Do we know any kind of rough idea about his 3bet range? Because from your description of him I think a tight 3bet range is a reasonable assumption. He sounds more cally than aggro, but he's obviously one of these guys that tries to get their entire stack in when they think they have the best hand.

Which means that He's either got AK/KK/AA (but way less likely to have KK because of his sizing) if we think his preflop range is AA-JJ AK. He's going to slow down with QQ/JJ on the turn, so I would definitely fold.

Also, even if he is spacking off randomly we can safely assume that our edge on this field is way bigger than our edge in this hand. I think the risk/reward concept is something which a lot of people underrate (including myself). We just give away too much equity by taking such marginal spots in such a soft tournament.

So yeah, I would call flop hoping for him to slow down then fold turn pretty quickly.

This is why I tanked so hard. Had I folded I still had 21k left at 100/200

[SuuPRlim]

as paul said earlier. If you equity in the comp atm is (for example) £500. A double up here would not Imo increase this to £1,000. if you lose, you lose £500 and if you win you don't win £500 (and I don't think you're stack increases in play ability that much either, or opens up EV in other spots by being 240bbs instead of 120) so assuming were 50% vs his range it would still be a call that loses you money.

now in reality we're nowhere near 50% vs his range, prolly not even 25% if we're all honest.

seems like burning money to me.

I think a lot of people in donkaments rarely consider this and just try and make the nut vacuum "poker play" when its in reality costing them

[Boba Fett]

Lil Dave and Sykes pretty much said what I was thinking but sounded more like they knew what they were talking about

[AlexMartin]

i dont get it? i call and im pretty happy.

[Nit Tendencies]

i dont get it? i call and im pretty happy.

What hands do you think a previously cally whale randomly becomes aggressive with? We're in horrendous equity vs his range imo.

[Whollyflush]

It depends. Obv he seems cally more than aggro, how old is he? wots he wearing? wots his banter? as a default i'd probably call (don't hero fold vs fish). Not sure i buy into the concept of fold because there are better spots, dtd 300 isn't the wsop main and is rather turbo-y.