DTD 300- Tough spot or easiest fold ever

[George2Loose]

This is deffo one of those spots where I'm in the trivial fold camp but in game I HAVE AK ON A KING HIGH BOARD> WOOHOOOOOOOO.

[MANTIS01]

Yah I agree I'm missing how we know villain will 100% peel with all these hands from that one hand.

What you guys are "totally missing" is villain's mentality is totally different in this hand to the A-10 hand. When you get your chips in well beat and spike a miracle on the river it can change your attitude. You feel like you're freerolling and should be out the comp. This can make you looser and more adventurous with all your new spending chips until you lose a few. Not saying that happened here but also not submitting I know 100% how villain is thinking right now from that one hand before. However, I would like to learn how we know all this and how it's 100% a trivial fold.

experience of playing live poker!

Mantis - I know you like to play devils advocate, and "be right" or "not proven wrong", but to be honest PHA is not the place to do it - its frankly quite tedious

I think it's the perfect place to do it because it gets people expanding on just posting "trivial fold" to actually explaining why in more depth. I know why you wouldn't want to do that sort of thing on PHA thou. 

[outragous76]

See Jamie Sykes for my full response!

It's easy to make up ranges for anything, but the whole point of phA is to add some reality.

In this hand the simple reality, is that there is a minuscule chance he is spazzing or has a wide 3 bet flush draw type hand, and a very large chance he has AA. so what most of us do, is factor that against the odds being given, what you do is randomly argue for arguments sake and make yourself look silly in the process!

[the rage]

Great thread. Thanks for posting the hand George. Lots of interesting observations about images and perceptions at the poker table.
 My first observation is that villian almost certainly recognises George from reading PHA and other threads, if not from previous live encounters.
  Villian is acutely aware that his current stack status is the result of poor play being rewarded by a very kind deck (which happens to most of us from time to time).

 I actually believe that villian's  3 betting range is likely to be very wide and could include the following hands
KQ, KX suited, all pairs inc 66 and 88.
AA, KK, KQ, KJ, K8, 88, 66, K6.

I actually think that your fist mistake was in not 4 betting pre flop. You're hand is way ahead of villian's range and i think that if villian has AA or KK he will more than likely jam all in pre flop and give you an easy decision to fold.
 As played,  you only have TPTK. When villian bets out on the flop, you may well be ahead, and up against KQ, or K6 or some other similar hand. If you had 4 bet pre i think you would have got rid of villian's junk hands, prob incl 88, 66 etc. You would have probably been given an easy decision to fold if you were being crushed pre flop, but as it stands you really don't have any idea whether you are in ahead or not.

You still have a good stack if you FOLD.

[Nit Tendencies]

Just want to apologise for my last post, it was a little sloppy and vague. Think the point may scrape it's way across though.

[SuuPRlim]

come on guys, has anyone REALLY ever seen a player like this show up with  in this spot?

really?

[Nit Tendencies]

Great thread. Thanks for posting the hand George. Lots of interesting observations about images and perceptions at the poker table.
 My first observation is that villian almost certainly recognises George from reading PHA and other threads, if not from previous live encounters.
  Villian is acutely aware that his current stack status is the result of poor play being rewarded by a very kind deck (which happens to most of us from time to time).

 I actually believe that villian's  3 betting range is likely to be very wide and could include the following hands
KQ, KX suited, all pairs inc 66 and 88.
AA, KK, KQ, KJ, K8, 88, 66, K6.

I actually think that your fist mistake was in not 4 betting pre flop. You're hand is way ahead of villian's range and i think that if villian has AA or KK he will more than likely jam all in pre flop and give you an easy decision to fold.

I'm sorry for how rude this is going to sound, but this is so wrong it hurts to read it.

You're giving him WAY too much credit. You really think he's going to 3bet K6o? Come on mate, get real. He overcalled AT oop to a 3bet previously, what makes you think he wouldn't just peel all of these hands now? Why do you think he's going to randomly change his mind? Huge, huge assumptions being made here.

And you are missing the key point that even if he does have airs, with this kind of sizing (and the fish mentality of over valuing tournament life), he just has AA way more than he has random bluffs or semi bluffs, and since we're getting a pretty terrible price due to his over 2x pot jam it just makes it a fold.

Also, 4betting pre is pretty bad. If you think he has a wide 3bet range, (which he really, really doesn't) then he's just going to fold a bunch of hands that you could have got value from post flop if you'd peeled. Also because it's pre antes you don't win a high enough % of your stack to warrant the risk in a spot where you're massively over-repping your hand and are going to find yourself in some tough spots against a pretty tight peeling range where you have to barrel some board textures and it's just not going to work enough.

You really don't want to be over repping your range against this kind of opponent in this spot (imho) because you're going to cut his range down to JJ-KK (he might just try and get AA in pre), and despite how strong you look he's a fish and won't want to fold an overpair on bricky boards (not to mention it's going to be a pretty big pot now because of your 4bet and your strategy for this kind of weak field shouldn't be trying to make fish fold overpairs in huge pots).

Sorry if this is a bit muddled, I'm in a rush. Will clear up anything that doesn't make sense later.

[Cf]

come on guys, has anyone REALLY ever seen a player like this show up with   in this spot?

really?

Have I seen then 3-bet with this sort of hand to defend their big blind? Yes.

Do I think he has it here? No. We've had 2 more streets to analyse by this point.

But I do think villain as described could be 3-betting from the big blind a little wider than we might think. Not massively wider.

Hell, if his range pre is as tight as people seem to think here we should prob just fold pre and save ourselves the trouble when we hit?

[Boba Fett]

I actually think that your fist mistake was in not 4 betting pre flop. You're hand is way ahead of villian's range and i think that if villian has AA or KK he will more than likely jam all in pre flop and give you an easy decision to fold.
 As played,  you only have TPTK. When villian bets out on the flop, you may well be ahead, and up against KQ, or K6 or some other similar hand. If you had 4 bet pre i think you would have got rid of villian's junk hands, prob incl 88, 66 etc. You would have probably been given an easy decision to fold if you were being crushed pre flop, but as it stands you really don't have any idea whether you are in ahead or not.

You still have a good stack if you FOLD.

By 4bet/folding you're turning AK into a bluff.  Since it is a relatively strong hand it makes doing this pretty bad mostly.  With AK you want to 4bet for value when you think villain will either 5 bet bluff a decent amount of the time or 5bet for value with worse hands.  Will our opponent really get 120BBs in pre with a worse ace or a random bluff?  If we dont think so then we can either call and play a flop in position against his 3betting range which might include hands we dominate, and we have position and are pretty deep.  4bet/folding is turning Ak into 72o

I really disagree with your 3bet range for the villain based on the info given in this thread, but if he was 3betting 22+,Ax+, Kx+ then how wide is he 5 betting our 4bet?  If he is still 5betting ridic wide then 4bet/get it in is fine, but if he is 3betting that wide, but only 5betting JJ+/AK then flatting gives us position 120bbs deep where we keep him in, we crush most of his range and we will play better than him postflop most of the time anyway.  In reality , from the description given Id be surprised if they didnt flat almost that entire range.

[SuuPRlim]

I cert don't think this is an easy fold.

Why can't a fish who plays a10 like a set on a ten high board deep not play ak/aq/aj or even his fave a10 this way, especially if he sees any of them are sooooooted??

you honestly think he is going to 3bet AT when he previously just called with it? and then randomly overbet, jam for 140bug blinds in a £300 live tournament? We've been given the impression he is a loose passive player which sounds about right so can't see how this would fit into his previous behaviour  -  also he can';t have the NFD or a king and a flush draw, which are the only combos of these hands that would make sendas we have the  and the  is on the board

Why can't the fish spazz with jj-kk? Can he ever be semi-bluffing a fd here? Cant think of many tho cos of that important blocker.

KK would be the nuts - don't believe there are any flush draw combo's he 3bets given the blockers we have/can see and again this is a KING high board, people are very wary of king high board because the expect people to have KINGS a lot, if the board was T73 id buy he could have 99 a lot more trying to "protect against overcards" put he doesn't even need to do tht with QQ or JJ

Why do ppl not give such fish credit for spazzing lots in this kinda spot? Fish get real stubborn, they just explode in hands like these.

but he is loose passive, he has shown no tendency to randomly aggro-spazz his chips off, I think giving someone credit for something you have no evidence they are capable of is in general going to be a mistake over assuming they aren't capable until you've seen they have.

Why aren't we ever 4betting pre for value against this donk with ak and position? I'm expecting to be lol'd @here but i know online v such a player i'd be 4b fistpump snapping his 5b jammage.

pretty decent point imo, IDK maybe George just felt the guy had a pretty string 3bet range given that he hasn't really 3bet before and usually played way more passive PF

I guess most nits just do this with qq/kk+ here, for me i'll include ak too against such a potential spazz merchannnnnnnnt.

honestly, what has happened in this thread for people to think this guy is ready to spazz out so violently, he just never shows up with QQ, surely everyone knew he had ACES when we saw him bet 3.5k otf?

Why do i keep saying why?

why, whhhyyy, whhhhhhhhhhhhhhyyyyyyyyyy, delilah.

I dunno i'm loving life on the flop and i'm hoping he'll spazz the turn, i gen think live in something pretty shooty late on i'm overjoyed to stack off here. I think ppl overcomplicate the simple.

norrrrrrrrrr way, honestly when he bets 1.5x pot OTF i would be fucking hating my life so much, it just screaaaammmmmmmmm ACES, literally screams them imo

Agree if i haven't seen the a10 hand i'll often fold this turn v unknown.

this should make this spot more of a fold imo - the two spots are completely different

I see keys says it's a trivial fold v this oppo. Interested to hear his opinion why.

do we really wanna hear from a chump who could only manage a 9th in the WSOPE?

[the rage]

Great thread. Thanks for posting the hand George. Lots of interesting observations about images and perceptions at the poker table.
 My first observation is that villian almost certainly recognises George from reading PHA and other threads, if not from previous live encounters.
  Villian is acutely aware that his current stack status is the result of poor play being rewarded by a very kind deck (which happens to most of us from time to time).

 I actually believe that villian's  3 betting range is likely to be very wide and could include the following hands
KQ, KX suited, all pairs inc 66 and 88.
AA, KK, KQ, KJ, K8, 88, 66, K6.

I actually think that your fist mistake was in not 4 betting pre flop. You're hand is way ahead of villian's range and i think that if villian has AA or KK he will more than likely jam all in pre flop and give you an easy decision to fold.

Re-your critcisms of my posts, Jamie and others. No problem at all. I appreciate all constructive criticisism. That's why i make the occassional post on these boards, to hopefully take some of it on board, and, hopefully learn something from the whole process. Cheers

[/color]I'm sorry for how rude this is going to sound, but this is so wrong it hurts to read it.

You're giving him WAY too much credit. You really think he's going to 3bet K6o? Come on mate, get real. He overcalled AT oop to a 3bet previously, what makes you think he wouldn't just peel all of these hands now? Why do you think he's going to randomly change his mind? Huge, huge assumptions being made here.

And you are missing the key point that even if he does have airs, with this kind of sizing (and the fish mentality of over valuing tournament life), he just has AA way more than he has random bluffs or semi bluffs, and since we're getting a pretty terrible price due to his over 2x pot jam it just makes it a fold.

Also, 4betting pre is pretty bad. If you think he has a wide 3bet range, (which he really, really doesn't) then he's just going to fold a bunch of hands that you could have got value from post flop if you'd peeled. Also because it's pre antes you don't win a high enough % of your stack to warrant the risk in a spot where you're massively over-repping your hand and are going to find yourself in some tough spots against a pretty tight peeling range where you have to barrel some board textures and it's just not going to work enough.

You really don't want to be over repping your range against this kind of opponent in this spot (imho) because you're going to cut his range down to JJ-KK (he might just try and get AA in pre), and despite how strong you look he's a fish and won't want to fold an overpair on bricky boards (not to mention it's going to be a pretty big pot now because of your 4bet and your strategy for this kind of weak field shouldn't be trying to make fish fold overpairs in huge pots).

Sorry if this is a bit muddled, I'm in a rush. Will clear up anything that doesn't make sense later.

ps-I do realize that i'm light years behind most of you guys in my poker thinking, but as i say, i'm just having a go, trying to lear something

[Cf]

Dave, I don't think it makes a massive difference but in the AT hand he did check/raise the flop. So he has some aggression in him. Ok, he did then proceed to call it off but it was his own aggressive action there that led to all the money getting in the middle.

[SuuPRlim]

Dave, I don't think it makes a massive difference but in the AT hand he did check/raise the flop. So he has some aggression in him. Ok, he did then proceed to call it off but it was his own aggressive action there that led to all the money getting in the middle.

if he was c/r as some sick merge to try make the guy fold an over-pair, then it makes a difference

if he was c/r because he had the topest pair with the topest kicker it doesn't make any difference aside from further demonstrate he is unlikely to have QQ/JJ here IMO

[Cf]

Dave, I don't think it makes a massive difference but in the AT hand he did check/raise the flop. So he has some aggression in him. Ok, he did then proceed to call it off but it was his own aggressive action there that led to all the money getting in the middle.

if he was c/r as some sick merge to try make the guy fold an over-pair, then it makes a difference

if he was c/r because he had the topest pair with the topest kicker it doesn't make any difference aside from further demonstrate he is unlikely to have QQ/JJ here IMO

Yeah, it was cos he had tptk but I think it changes the dynamic a bit. He's got chips now. And big nasty george raising every hand has now raised his big blind. Time to do something about it! In my experience bad players like this when they've got chips are happy to 3bet from their big blind to make the point of "that's what you get for trying to steal my big blind".

That said, I do agree the turn is a fold. If he was spazzing out to protect his blind I don't think he takes it this far. And if he has some sort of draw/worse hand but showdownable I think he slows down. And if it's a bluff I think he'd have given up by now.

[MANTIS01]

Good players itt like actionman and Alex Martin say they call, op also called, and I imagine plenty of other people reading this thread would find it difficult to lay the hand down. Thus it isn't a trivial fold and worthy of more discussion obv. We have one hand to go by and that hand was played when villain had far less chips and a different mentality. Factor in it's villain's bb and hero's image and there are talking points beyond "trivial fold". Have I ever seen fish acquire a stack and lose them again straight away? err yes. I'm more inclined to fold myself cos of us having Ah but I enjoy looking stupid and finding out why things are impossible on PHA. Especially why he never has KQ or 9h10h.