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Author Topic: blonde NFL Fantasy League 2019/20  (Read 612018 times)
WPIL
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« Reply #285 on: August 28, 2012, 10:42:44 PM »

At least I got Matt Stafford again
Auto Pick FTW!
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« Reply #286 on: August 28, 2012, 10:43:11 PM »

Good luck all
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« Reply #287 on: August 28, 2012, 11:04:57 PM »

Could have been worse, given I was absent and had to hope to luck in to a few on my autopick list

er, when does the waiver wire open?!
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« Reply #288 on: August 28, 2012, 11:20:45 PM »

Good stuff, enjoyed it.

Draft standard seemed a lot higher than last year.

Happy with my team but need David Wilson, Donald Brown or Cedric Benson to be world.
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« Reply #289 on: August 28, 2012, 11:23:54 PM »

Good stuff, enjoyed it.

Draft standard seemed a lot higher than last year.

Happy with my team but need David Wilson, Donald Brown or Cedric Benson to be world.

David Wilson is going to be a star. A bargain for the Giants in the draft

My rookie flier is Coby Fleener, Indy's new TE and Luck's Stanford TE, my hunch being that Luck will have him as a safety blanket until he has some top class receivers to hook up with

No midea where I drafted him. Presumably I can see the draft selections in order somewhere?

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« Reply #290 on: August 28, 2012, 11:29:50 PM »

Fleener in the 5th, too high.

Matt Cassel in the 15th round is interesting

Have the Chiefs as a big turn-round team this year with the Cassel, Charles injuries behind them
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« Reply #291 on: August 29, 2012, 05:21:56 PM »

Fleener in the 5th, too high.

Matt Cassel in the 15th round is interesting

Have the Chiefs as a big turn-round team this year with the Cassel, Charles injuries behind them

You were a last second change of mind on my part from getting Vernon Davis.

For an autopick, you didn't do too badly.  I liked the comedic touch of 2 WRs called M Floyd!
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« Reply #292 on: August 29, 2012, 07:23:54 PM »

yeah I've done a couple of live drafts tonight to get my fix

Great fun, one of the best parts of the whole process.
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« Reply #293 on: August 29, 2012, 07:29:18 PM »

Definitely great fun even if I'm not too happy cos I missed a few players I really wanted...just hope Marky's happy with what we've got.
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« Reply #294 on: August 29, 2012, 08:09:40 PM »

Definitely great fun even if I'm not too happy cos I missed a few players I really wanted...just hope Marky's happy with what we've got.

I'm easy m8 Smiley

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« Reply #295 on: August 29, 2012, 11:32:33 PM »

As a newbie who got first pick, is it considered best to be first and therefore last in the second round or somewhere near the end of round 1 as you are most likely to get 2 genuine superstars?

Rodgers would be number 1 pick in every league, right?
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« Reply #296 on: August 30, 2012, 12:09:13 AM »

As a newbie who got first pick, is it considered best to be first and therefore last in the second round or somewhere near the end of round 1 as you are most likely to get 2 genuine superstars?

Rodgers would be number 1 pick in every league, right?

Its a preference thing I think really Keith. I hated my spot at 6 because If I don't get to go in the first three/four I would rather pick near the end but prob not last mainly because the further thru the rounds you go the easier it is to plan your picks when your picks are close together. So first four you get to do that when the snake comes back the other way but have to wait a long time for your second pick. Say last 4 in round one you get to pick 2 top end players in close proximity and then later on you can make more of a call such as,  there are 4 wr I don't mind having but only 2 rb's, so I will take the rb now and in 4-8 picks time I will then hope to get any of the 4 wr that I would be happy to take, so you can plan easier.

I drew pick 6 which I didn't like at all as I was prob going to be just inside the line for the top 6 players which in most leagues would be the top 3 qb's and top 3rb's, so I am likely to get the worst of the top level players( as it happened Stafford went 2nd which moved Brady and Brees down). I ended up taking Brees  but if I had drawn two picks near the end of round 1/start rd 2 I would have looked to take Jimmy Graham and Gronk as getting those two players in a league that plays 2 TE gives you a potential huge advantage at that position that you cannot get in any other position from the back end of round 1. From 6 I couldn't do that but I did notice that Jek probaly tried to do this by taking Graham but someone else took Gronk before it got to his 2nd round pick, so he waited until Gates in round 4 and took him instead, so gets 2 of the top 3 TE giving himself strength in that position.

If you wanted a qb first then Rodgers was deffo number 1, if you wanted a rb then Rice, Foster and McCoy are alternating with Rodgers as the top four in most leagues.






« Last Edit: August 30, 2012, 12:26:20 AM by bobby1 » Logged

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« Reply #297 on: August 30, 2012, 05:17:16 AM »

As a newbie who got first pick, is it considered best to be first and therefore last in the second round or somewhere near the end of round 1 as you are most likely to get 2 genuine superstars?

Rodgers would be number 1 pick in every league, right?

To answer your 2nd question, in a "standard" league (start: 1QB, 2RB, 3WR, 1TE) Arian Foster is usually the 1st player off the board. Then it's close between Rice/Rodgers followed by Shady. Imo, that would be in a 6pt passing TD league, in a 4pt passing TD league, Rodgers basically "has" to be outside the top 3. http://football.myfantasyleague.com/2012/adp

However, in a league like this, TEs command a *huge* premium. TE24 is going to be starting for someone. TE24 may not have an EV above 4PPG. The elite 2 figure to be good for 10-11 PPG, and the next two figure to be good for ~9PPG, when you can get a 5-7PPGX2 advantage over a typical starter in the league, that's a crushing edge. So I was thrilled to get Graham at 1.09. I'd have taken him as high as 1.04 (only behind the Big 3 RBs). If Gronk had fallen to me at 2.04, I'd have been even more ecstatic. He was the 7th player on my board, behind just the aforementioned 4 players, Tron, and Rodgers.

To answer your 1st question, from a pure EV perspective, the value of draft picks goes in order (1st, 2nd, 3rd, etc). The reason for this is because the difference in value from pick 1 to pick 12 > difference in value from pick 13 to pick 24. This is because as you proceed down your list of players, their values are going to get progressively closer together. So the 1st pick is usually the best, followed by the 2nd and so on. There are occasionally odd situations that come up that will change that, but I'll avoid getting into them here as I'm probably already being confusing enough.

The concept I'm sort of dancing around here is called "VBD" or Value Based Drafting. Here's an article that gives a very good description of it: http://www.footballguys.com/05vbdrevisited.htm. There are some inherent problems with VBD, but it's light years ahead of guessing where the value is.

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« Reply #298 on: August 30, 2012, 08:10:43 AM »

Fascinating. Even if I had been there, wold have completely underestimated the two TE implications.
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« Reply #299 on: August 30, 2012, 09:27:07 AM »

Fascinating. Even if I had been there, wold have completely underestimated the two TE implications.

That's really too bad given your name. Tongue
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