stars 22$ 1R1A 35k

[dreenie]

Hi all first time posting here, so here goes, There are about 12/13 players left at this point in the tourney 8k+ ftw, I decide to flat call with this hand, as I have postion, and feel this player has been v.aggro using his stack well in the late stages of the tourney, so could perhaps win a big pot if he's bluffing or get value from my hand if he's got lower AX .... I flat the flop, as not to try to bluff later streets as such, but to see what devolps on the turn, the bet is pretty weak, in honesty maybe raising flop here, is more profitable?

When the turn comes, I obv call that bet and am hoping to get to showdown tbh, when he barrels the 3rd time, I really hate it, and am now regretting the fold, I feel this type of player, although aggro, but is actually playing good and using his chip stack well, would not be that spewy and 3 barrel a bluff here, don't feel I'm beating much either ? However I still sigh call it off on the river?

Thoughts please, appreciate all feedback, cheers.

Date:   2011/08/11 1:53:33 WET [2011/08/10 20:53:33 ET]
Type:   Tournament (433010533)
Game:   Hold'em NL
Table:   '433010533 53' 9-max
Blinds:    $6000/12000
Antes:   $1200
Table info:
Seat 1: Vitinho Leão ($343,681)
Dealer
Seat 2: dreeniee82 ($498,041)
Posts small blind $6000
Seat 3: rip32raptors ($150,242)
Posts big blind $12000
Seat 4: kung_ivo ($398,232)
Seat 5: oogb ($392,600)
Seat 7: rodders27 ($1,195,268)
Seat 9: PunterTHFC ($698,180)
Dealt to dreeniee82 

Check odds
Preflop: (Pot: $26400)
FOLD oogb
RAISE rodders27, to $36,000
FOLD PunterTHFC
FOLD Vitinho Leão
CALL dreeniee82, $36,000
FOLD rip32raptors
FOLD kung_ivo
Check odds
Flop: (Pot: $98,400)

    
BET rodders27, $36,000
CALL dreeniee82, $36,000
Check odds
Turn: (Pot: $170,400)

 

BET rodders27, $84,000
CALL dreeniee82, $84,000
River: (Pot: $338,400)

 

BET rodders27, $144,000
CALL dreeniee82, $144,000
Showdown:
SHOWS rodders27     

Mucks dreeniee82   

rodders27 wins the pot of $626,400 with a pair of Aces

[pleno1]

I'd just fold flop tbh. Has he been 3x'n the whole time?

[strak33]

Struggling to think of a worse flop for flatting on.

Just fold flop.

[strak33]

Also dont raise this flop either.

[Nico29]

Omg a 3xr! I 3b get it in pre. Great equity with this hand against a v aggro 3xr who is bloating a pot unness pre. Like pleno says has he been 3xng consistently? If not then his sizing cld be a tell pre altho i'm still 3betting.

Flop for me is a fold. Turn seems fine tho obv lots of rivers we are often folding, river is meh. Prob play turn and river same. I guess better players than me find a fold on the river due to villain not 3 brlng here enough.

Going bk 2 flop i mean we can raise as a bluff but i'm thinking that's prob quite bad with your stack. When we flat flop i think we are floating mostly and altho i don't hate that, i prefer with 40ish bbs a more aggro line pre.

[EvilPie]

Lol at 3 bet getting it in with 40+ bigs just because the guy's 3x'd.

I'm going to assume he hasn't got this far in this comp by 4 bet jamming AJ and worse a bunch of times.

Why is it that everyone assumes that because someone 3x's they're terrabad? I'm guessing it's because they've read lot's of other people saying it's shit so decided they should make that their opinion as well.

I like the call pre. Obviously not folding and we're nicely under repped with position. Why we'd want to just get it in pre when everything is to our advantage post I don't know but maybe I'm just stupid.

Unless he's got a ridic high c bet I just fold this flop.

If he likes c betting we're deep enough to make it 120k and fold to a shove. We need to be careful of our rep here though. We need to look like a cast iron nit post to get this through so I much prefer folding.

[Nico29]

Lol at 3 bet getting it in with 40+ bigs just because the guy's 3x'd.

I'm going to assume he hasn't got this far in this comp by 4 bet jamming AJ and worse a bunch of times.

Why is it that everyone assumes that because someone 3x's they're terrabad? I'm guessing it's because they've read lot's of other people saying it's shit so decided they should make that their opinion as well.

I like the call pre. Obviously not folding and we're nicely under repped with position. Why we'd want to just get it in pre when everything is to our advantage post I don't know but maybe I'm just stupid.

Unless he's got a ridic high c bet I just fold this flop.

If he likes c betting we're deep enough to make it 120k and fold to a shove. We need to be careful of our rep here though. We need to look like a cast iron nit post to get this through so I much prefer folding.

Are you serious mate? What on earth is wrong with 3betting getting it in with aqstd and 40bbs versus a serial raiser? Yeah lets just peel for approaching ten percent of our stack with a premium hand for this spot.

3xrs are so 2005. Why risk more and bloat more when we don't need to. Our advantage should be pre as well as post versus a donk 3xr who is clearly living in an antique state. You can raise the flop as a bluff but it's prob a bit of a leak with these stacks.

Also if we do raise the flop 120k is also unneeded, lets make it like 90k. Why risk extra chips when we don't need to, it achieves the same, as does a min raise pre rather than a 3x.

[SuuPRlim]

Why is it that everyone assumes that because someone 3x's they're terrabad? I'm guessing it's because they've read lot's of other people saying it's shit so decided they should make that their opinion as well.

Technically speaking its been demonstrated over and over by several pretty clever people why maths/theoretically speaking opening to 3x is a less optimal play than a smaller raise, so it's not really a stylistic point it is actually worse to 3x than 2.5x from a game theory perspective. However having said this I reckon some more geniuses will come along in not too much time and find a reason why a different raise size is more optimal which will be mathematically backed up and we'll l be saying LOL 2.5x'ing how 2011. But for now this is where we're at and it's hard to argue this point imo, safe to assume this player is a weaker player from the opening size imo.

What on earth is wrong with 3betting getting it in with aqstd and 40bbs versus a serial raiser?

This is working on the assumption that he 4bet range is equally as wide as his opening range, I think how wide he is opening is far less relevant than his 4bet tendencies. If we have info he's 4bet jamming wide then its a 3b call ainec.
All i know is.

he has been 3x opening
its a $22 comp
his name is rodders27 (not a very reggy name) OPR has him loosing roughly 17k over 350 games with a $94 av buyinn the last 4 years, so not a regular player by any means.

Seems like a peel is the only play imo

[NoflopsHomer]

Why is it that everyone assumes that because someone 3x's they're terrabad? I'm guessing it's because they've read lot's of other people saying it's shit so decided they should make that their opinion as well.

Technically speaking its been demonstrated over and over by several pretty clever people why maths/theoretically speaking opening to 3x is a less optimal play than a smaller raise, so it's not really a stylistic point it is actually worse to 3x than 2.5x from a game theory perspective. However having said this I reckon some more geniuses will come along in not too much time and find a reason why a different raise size is more optimal which will be mathematically backed up and we'll l be saying LOL 2.5x'ing how 2011. But for now this is where we're at and it's hard to argue this point imo, safe to assume this player is a weaker player from the opening size imo.

What on earth is wrong with 3betting getting it in with aqstd and 40bbs versus a serial raiser?

This is working on the assumption that he 4bet range is equally as wide as his opening range, I think how wide he is opening is far less relevant than his 4bet tendencies. If we have info he's 4bet jamming wide then its a 3b call ainec.
All i know is.

he has been 3x opening
its a $22 comp
his name is rodders27 (not a very reggy name) OPR has him loosing roughly 17k over 350 games with a $94 av buyinn the last 4 years, so not a regular player by any means.

Seems like a peel is the only play imo

Nice post lildave.

[SuuPRlim]

why thank you 

Keys is right though, i should get a job

[Nico29]

Nice post dave. But i do disagree that 3betting here is not optimal v this oppo. Our hand plays great pre flop and ok post.

Taking it down pre isn't terrible especially thanks to mr donks 3x. Agree that unless we assume his 4bet range is as wide as his opening range that 3b getting it in is a bit of a meh spot cos we are gonna be a dog to his 4b range if it's narrow.

What sort of stack do you believe we'd need to be 3bet getting it in with if not 40bbs? Surely peeling for anything like 10 percent of our stack pre is just plain bad unless we don't need to improve.

Implied odds and all that, i'd cert want no less than 10-1 in such a spot.

Not saying i'll never peel here, i just think so many cash players think in comps they are deeper than they actually are, and peel far too freely when equity wise 3b getting it in is often the best play, imo.

[SuuPRlim]

I just think so many cash players think in comps they are deeper than they actually are, and peel far too freely when equity wise 3b getting it in is often the best play, imo.

This is 100% true. Whenever I play comps and Jamie about this or that hand his response usually starts with "why the fuck are you peeling that pre, obviously get it in" or "omg your such a live nit just 3bet call pre" and so on lol

Meh IDK really just seems like we're likely crushing his opening range and doing kinda sigh vs his 4b range which in my cash head makes me never wanna 3bet.

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HOWEVER after your response i looked into the equity of just jamming here and it seems even if we give him a joke tight calling calling range we still make a small profit on the play (roughly 3big blinds)

I cant figure out how to C&P the calc but it was basically

Villain opening 25% (44+, 78s+, A7o+, and so on) and a calling range of TT+, AK/AKs

Tighten his opens to 15% (66+, JTs+ etc) and we basically breakeven

Now widen his calling range to 88+, AQ+, AJs+ and he net nearly 4big blinds.

Tighten opening range to 15% with the new wider opening range and we make around 2.5bb's

Using the example of jamming>3b calling as it basically gives us the "worst case" as it wont include any spews are bluffs (which I think we can expect to happen sometimes)

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SO pretty much no doubt that 3b getting it in is profitable I stand corrected

[dreenie]

He had been 3X'ing it pre reguarly, so I didn't feel it was any different this time.

Looking back at the hand, the flop bet seems so weak, then the turn and river changes into more of a value bet imo, so yeah folding flop seems the right move here, If I was to raise the flop, with the intention of folding if he comes back over the top, is this always bad?

thxs for the comments so far.

[dreenie]

He had been 3X'ing it pre reguarly, so I didn't feel it was any different this time.

Looking back at the hand, the flop bet seems so weak, then the turn and river changes into more of a value bet imo, so yeah folding flop seems the right move here, If I was to raise the flop, with the intention of folding if he comes back over the top, is this always bad?

thxs for the comments so far.

When it comes to the turn and river, do u ever think he bets the river with worse here? I'E A10/A9 ss KJ/QJ maybe repping the Ace? - Earlier on in the comp (40ish) left, a guy had raised the cut off, and I flatted the btn with AQ off, flop came      he c-bet I called, turn was a  chk chk, and the river fell a  he bet half the pot, and I just flatted, he had  , I flatted the river? do u think that's the wrong play?

[Pinchop73]

3bing this spot is horrendous.

He's in position and easily has us covered, so he knows that if he just flats us he's going to be able to own us pretty hard post with the really awkward stack sizes. Obv if I know villain is defo coming back over the top then defo 3b/c.

I prefer flatting pre and raising flop than 3b pre.

But optimal for me is flat pre, fold flop.

Maybe post the hand history of your previous hand in another thread with the full hh so we can see stack sizes etc. Ta