NFL Betting blog

[kukushkin88]

We will cash in on the weather angle at some stage this year but there´s a high pressure pushing up from the south that might just screw us for this weekend, I won´t bother with the technical weather info (am happy to if people want).

I´m going small stakes unders on NE, GB, Baltimore and Pittsburgh games. It´s far from impossible the weather gives us a helping hand but these points lines look plenty high enough anyway. Trebles and up with Betfred or Boylesports who have a couple of half points here or there that could be crucial.

[Simon Galloway]

I definitely prefer Oakland.  No real view on Saints game so happy to offer you a bet there.  I do like Dallas but there is a bit of a seven available.  If you are want to do something where I bet 1.86 or so on Dallas +7 then happy to play there otherwise happy to leave it.  re:stakes nothing bigger than £100 on Saints.  Dallas happy to do more if you want @ 7.

Thanks, we can leave the Pats game alone np.

I get Saints -4 £100 @ Evs with you, confirm to book it?

[redarmi]

Confirmed mate.

[Sheriff Fatman]

At the start of the week I thought the zero line on Washington at home to the Eagles was wrong, but it's now moved to Washington +1.5, which I think is just silly.  I expected it to move during the week, but in the other direction!

I'm guessing the market is waiting for the Eagles' fightback, and there's a element of logic in it (and as a supporter I desperately hope it comes) but the cold, hard facts so far this season is that this team is fundamentally flawed on defence and the offence is committing far too many turnovers (many of them purely down to Vick) to be able to overcome this.

Washington are coming off a bye, will desperately want revenge for the prime-time battering in this fixture last season, are the best team in the league with regard to time of possession so will surely come out with a gameplan to eat up the clock with all 3 running backs in rotation and keep Vick off the field.  The Eagles have failed to stop the run all season and there's no reason to believe that they'll be able to start now.  Washington also have a solid defence, and I'm not confident that the turnover problem will be arrested just yet.

Simply put, there is no way a 3-1 team at home to a 1-4 team should be 1.5pt underdogs.  It's the same situation as last week, where the Bills were 2.5pt dogs, and the Eagles lost by 7 in that one due to a whole host of errors including turnovers, missed tackles, and bad clock management (an Andy Reid speciality).  Stupidly, I let my sentiment get in the way last week and couldn't pull the trigger.  I won't be making the same mistake this week.

There is tons of value on the Washington side here.  Maybe the Eagles do finally fix all their issues and turn in the performance level worthy of the 'dream team' (puke!) but this line says that they're likely to do it, and I just have no confidence that we'll see that happen on Sunday.

[Horneris]

Disagree.

I posted on your facebook on Monday that Eagles +1 seemed ridiculous and I was quick to snap it up. Now at -1.5 I can see them going to -2 before the game starts.

As shocking as Eagles have been if you can cut out just a few mistakes you can get past a solid and well coached but ultimately poor in quality Washington side.

[Sheriff Fatman]

Disagree.

I posted on your facebook on Monday that Eagles +1 seemed ridiculous and I was quick to snap it up. Now at -1.5 I can see them going to -2 before the game starts.

As shocking as Eagles have been if you can cut out just a few mistakes you can get past a solid and well coached but ultimately poor in quality Washington side.

I think cutting out a few mistakes applies to the offensive side of the ball only, mainly Vick not throwing picks and the receivers/running backs not dropping and fumbling the ball when he does hit them in the numbers.  However, we have two fundamental problems that are more deep rooted and not easily fixable.

1) OLine - lots of personnel changes already this season, and still to find a settled line, which means that they've struggled to protect Vick in every game.  Kelce at center is a rookie, as is Danny Watkins at right guard, our first round pick who's only just been brought into the team after being benched following a poor pre-season.  The best player on the OLine was Jason Peters at LT, and he's injured at the moment.

2) The defense has problems throughout.  Juan Castillo was promoted to D-Coordinator after 13yrs as an O-line coach, so he's raw and he's picking up a lot of the flak, which is certainly not helping matters.  They've gone with a wide 9 system which is designed to put pressure on the QB and is certainly effective at doing that.  However, that's become less effective due to Trent Cole's injury.  The big flaw in using the wide 9 is that it leaves holes in the middle which every team has been able to exploit with the running game, or by dumping off short checkdown passes.  This is not helped by the fact that the Linebackers are largely inexperienced and we've been chopping and changing the personnel there, hence the frequent big yards that are being given up through the middle.

Also, for some reason, we've signed big name free agents in the secondary but are currently asking them to take on new roles from what they're best at.  Asomugha is the obvious example - one of the best shutdown corners in man coverage, but getting exploited when being played in the zone.  If you're going to spend all that money to acquire him, why not scheme your defense to do what he's best at?


I'm not saying the Eagles can't win the game, I just think the market is pricing them based on the names on the teamsheet, but not for the way that they're actually playing as a unit on both sides of the ball.  Quite frankly, I've watched them the last three weeks and waited for the change to come, and it hasn't, so why should this week be any different?

They should be +3 for this game, not -1.5, so I agree with you that +1 was ridiculous.  We just disagree on the direction it should have moved!

[ChipRich]

Only bet i got so far this week is Saints -4 and a bit -4.5. Really like it.

Did like Raiders -5, but now 6.5, so cant get involved.

Also, had a little on Earnest Graham 1st TD last night @ 14/1 with Stans, everyone else was like 7's. Instantly got bashed into 6/1, with Blount being out. 7's is about right.

Dont mind Lions -4, but that might just me being a bit biased towards my Superbowl bet and have not really watched San Fran play this season. Think i like Minny too, but not sure il get on.

Wish id took the early +1 on Eagles, think they'l get it sorted this week but obv cant get involved now iv missed the price.

[Sheriff Fatman]

I posted on your facebook on Monday that Eagles +1 seemed ridiculous and I was quick to snap it up. Now at -1.5 I can see them going to -2 before the game starts.

-2.5 everywhere, and -3 on some books.

Insanity prevails!

Great prediction of the market, Brent.  Perhaps I'm too emotionally involved with Philly to understand where all the optimism is coming from, because I certainly don't have any!

[kukushkin88]

]http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Wind%20850%20and%20mslp!0!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2011101600!!/]

We got pretty unlucky with the weather angle here. Major storm system arrived right on cue but it looks like it´s ultimately going to be just a little too far north.

I really like the unders (42.5) in the Chicago game (already on a raft of other unders) and Detroit -4.

[Marky147]

I bet unders after your post on Thursday and have a sweat going into 9pm


Jags v Steelers - Under 39 @ 10/11

Rams V Packers - Under 47.5 @ 10/11

Texans V Ravens - Under 44.5 @ 10/11

Cowboys V Pats - Under 55 @ 10/11

4x £10 Trebles

1x £10 Four fold


         
   

[action man]

pats -7
texans +6
Vikings ML


gogogogo

[Marky147]

Saints -6

Pats -7

Ravens

Raiders

[Acidmouse]

HOLD! 49ers!!!

[Horneris]

HOLD! 49ers!!!

burnnnn. siiggghhhhhh Lions.

[Acidmouse]

HOLD! 49ers!!!

weeeeee are you shitting me after the sherriff's analysis of 49ers team i thought we was doomed, very good game glad i watched it now.. 5-1 odds on them winning that game?