NFL Betting blog

[bobby1]

good luck with those Rich,

Asante Samuel to Atlanta looks a nice signing

[vegaslover]

How many QBs do people think will be first round picks???

[Linux]

How many QBs do people think will be first round picks???

3 - Luck, RG3 and Tannehill

[bobby1]

How many QBs do people think will be first round picks???

well three is a given, there is a scenario where Miami take the third in Tannehill with pick 8. Cleveland look the only team before them  that might want  a qb but seem certain to take either Richardson at 4 or, and this has appeared in some of the latest news and mocks, the WR justin Blackmon at 4.

If Cleve do take a rb or wr at 4 then it could leave a spot for a another qb with their 2nd first round pick at 22. If they get Richardson at 4, there is prob more chance they take a qb there. If they take Blackmon there then they prob reach at 22 and take one of the rb's that were on the draft sheet to go in the 2nd round.

So there is a scenario where 4 go and it prob rests with what Cleveland do with pick4.

If they do take Blackmon at 4 then Tampa at 5 will have had a big Brucie bonus as Richardson will surely be their pick with number 5 unless they take Clairbourne there but Richardson could be good value at 5 given he has prob only fallen to that spot coz the teams above that in the draft have needs elsewhere

[TightEnd]

3 is favourite

A gamblers chance of a fourth with Brandon Weeden at 24-32

Weeden is 29 but is said to be far more ready than Tannehill, and could be a 6-7 year NFL starter out of the box. His age is the drawback, clearly

Mike Sherman, Tannehill's coach in college is now Miami's OC. He is on record as saying Tannehill is "not ready". Miami is in a bit of a spot really. The owner is said to want Tannehill, but at 8? a risky one

I think Cleveland might be the spot for Weeden, if they get a RB/WR in the top 10...they need offensive playmakers



In general it is difficult to disentangle rumours from facts this close but the things being bandied around the last 24 hours include

Jets trading all the way up to top 5 for Richardson at RB

Multiple teams trading to 10-14 for Mark Barron the safety

etc etc

This is the first year of this CBA with the draft, and its complicated. The key point is that all rookies get 4 year contracts. For the fifth year, the optional one, if you are drafted top 10, the team has to pay you the average of the top 10 salaries at the position in the league for the extra year. Outside the top 10 and in the top 25, the average of the top 25 salaries for the fifth year.

So trading up into the top 10 is riskier than it was, as you are on the hook for more $ for longer as a top 10 team

It is said that teams 3-10 all want to trade down for that reason

[bobby1]

So that Tampa spot at 5 could end up a Jets pick to take Richardson should Cleveland not take him at 4. That does make sense as it would give Tampa a lot of options with the picks they get from the Jets.

How much of the 'late' news would you say is misdirection in the last 2 days before the draft Rich?

[TightEnd]

So that Tampa spot at 5 could end up a Jets pick to take Richardson should Cleveland not take him at 4. That does make sense as it would give Tampa a lot of options with the picks they get from the Jets.

How much of the 'late' news would you say is misdirection in the last 2 days before the draft Rich?

A lot

All the teams have an eve of draft press conference which is the most pointless piece of media of the year

The teams don't want to talk and what they do say can be bull.


In general the sought after assets seem to be Richardson, Clairborne, Cox and Barron.

Whether a team "does a Washington" and gives up multiple high draft picks to trade up to get them, is one of the fun things to watch


For example do the Jets think they are close enough to a run at the superbowl to trade for Richardson, who will get you if he is advertised 1500 yds and 10TDs a year compared to Shonn Greene and an old LaDainian Tomlinson?

Do the Vikings who have to face Rodgers/Jennings, Stafford/Megatron, Cutler/Marshall  six games a year really pass on a Revis like corner in Claiborne at 3 in a passing league? If they do, will someone else jump up there to get him?


 

[vegaslover]

Cheers guys.
not checked all the sites yet, mainly due to odds comparison sites not putting up prices for drafts but Billys go 2/1 for 4 or more QB. Maybe some value in that

[bobby1]

I think you can prob beat that with some other site Vegas,

Cheers Rich, have you ever read the book 'Next man up' by John Feinstein?

http://www.amazon.co.uk/Next-Man-Up-Behind-Todays/dp/0316009644

A brilliant book but the draft process chapter with an insight into the work one of most respected GM's Ozzie Newsome puts into all aspects of player recruitment is fascinating.

*oops I have just remembered there might be a Blonde link I could have put in there instead*

[TightEnd]

I think you can prob beat that with some other site Vegas,

Cheers Rich, have you ever read the book 'Next man up' by John Feinstein?

http://www.amazon.co.uk/Next-Man-Up-Behind-Todays/dp/0316009644

A brilliant book but the draft process chapter with an insight into the work one of most respected GM's Ozzie Newsome puts into all aspects of player recruitment is fascinating

great book

Ozzie Newsome is one of the best

The Ravens consistently draft brilliantly, nearly always draft towards the end of the first round and end up with Ray Rice, Haloti Ngata etc etc

[vegaslover]

I think you can prob beat that with some other site Vegas,

Cheers Rich, have you ever read the book 'Next man up' by John Feinstein?

http://www.amazon.co.uk/Next-Man-Up-Behind-Todays/dp/0316009644

A brilliant book but the draft process chapter with an insight into the work one of most respected GM's Ozzie Newsome puts into all aspects of player recruitment is fascinating

Cheers bobby1 will take a look later. Ardous going through the sites manually..lol

I have that book but yet to read it, along with about 50 others, sigh

great book

Ozzie Newsome is one of the best

The Ravens consistently draft brilliantly, nearly always draft towards the end of the first round and end up with Ray Rice, Haloti Ngata etc etc

[bobby1]

I think you can prob beat that with some other site Vegas,

Cheers Rich, have you ever read the book 'Next man up' by John Feinstein?

http://www.amazon.co.uk/Next-Man-Up-Behind-Todays/dp/0316009644

A brilliant book but the draft process chapter with an insight into the work one of most respected GM's Ozzie Newsome puts into all aspects of player recruitment is fascinating

Cheers bobby1 will take a look later. Ardous going through the sites manually..lol

I have that book but yet to read it, along with about 50 others, sigh

great book

Ozzie Newsome is one of the best

The Ravens consistently draft brilliantly, nearly always draft towards the end of the first round and end up with Ray Rice, Haloti Ngata etc etc

i was trying to remember where I saw the quotes earlier in the week mate but can't remember at the mo.

[bobby1]

I think you can prob beat that with some other site Vegas,

Cheers Rich, have you ever read the book 'Next man up' by John Feinstein?

http://www.amazon.co.uk/Next-Man-Up-Behind-Todays/dp/0316009644

A brilliant book but the draft process chapter with an insight into the work one of most respected GM's Ozzie Newsome puts into all aspects of player recruitment is fascinating

great book

Ozzie Newsome is one of the best

The Ravens consistently draft brilliantly, nearly always draft towards the end of the first round and end up with Ray Rice, Haloti Ngata etc etc

Yes, It sounds like a long term plan in a short term world too given his mantra of taking the best man on the board irrespective of his position because that's the way to build a squad of players. When you see what other teams are giving up these days to get a man they want to fill a blatant gap its such a different way to look at it.

Can you imagine Baltimore trading 3 picks for Roy Williams just coz they needed a WR there and then?

I'm off to find the book now, will have to read it again this weekend.

[77dave]

Talk of the Pro Bowl getting axed.

9 hours 42 mins to wait hope we all have provisions in for the evening.

[77dave]

Assumed the draft was going to be on ESPN tonight, where can you watch it in the UK?