Sky Poker Grand Final PHA

[paulpitchford]

As per the topic, 12 left. I have just over average. £959 for current finish, £1300 is for 9th, £22k for the win.

Me: 540k
Villan: circa 1mil

Villan is quite active, likes to see a flop and has played a couple of hands aggressively having gotten to the flop. Seems a bit passive pre. Twice he's showed hands that were really under represented pre at show down. Only played with him for about 1.30hrs though.

Blinds 10k/20k/1k.

I raise to 48 in the cut off with 1010
SB calls
BB calls

Turn (Pot: 158k)


He donk leads 75k, BB folds, I rr to 180 (320k ish behind) he INSTA ships. I hadn't even finished putting chips in the pot.

I appreciate any comments on any aspect on the hand. Anyone that know's me will know I passed but before I go into why, I'd just like to hear what other experienced players would have done in this spot.

Thanks. Paul.

[NoflopsHomer]

Just jam flop. Never raise/fold here, 520k in middle with 320k back?

My experience of people snap-shoving in live poker is that it generally means the person is on a draw because they don't really care about your odds or if they want to call, they just want to get the money in the middle.

[outragous76]

never folding

[boldie]

Like the others said, I jam here...like Floppy I'd expect him to be on a draw here...

[Karabiner]

never folding

[SuuPRlim]

yup dont ever fold now, i imagine your prolly up against a FD and 1 over but w/e.

do you have the ? If you do I might fancy peeling the flop donk and jamming over his turn bet, the stacks will be a little arkward for him OTT as well so might get him to make some bad chk/calls or even folds

[millidonk]

never folding

agree with these insta ships often being draws, unless you have zero fe or something.

As played call him off and hold.

[cambridgealex]

Prefer min raising pre at this stage. Makes our steals cheaper and when get peeled the stack:pot ratio is larger so we have more manoeuvrability post flop to own ppl.

Call now

[stato_1]

Raise folding here is an absolute disaster. When you raise the flop have a plan as to what you are going to do if he shoves and if its fold then dont raise. By raising the flop what were you attempting to achieve? Trying to get value from worse hands I'd imagine, but he's very unlikely to just flat the raise given the stack sizes so if you don't think hes going to shove with worse then don't raise in the first place.

Raising flop is fine if it's with an intention to call a shove, and I think that's comfortably the best line here. The fact he insta-shoves makes it even more of a call imo.

[paulpitchford]

Thanks for the replies.

I've been thinking long and hard about it to be honest because I think the pass here ultimately cost me the tournament or a good shot at it. I think I let the fact I'd seen him flat big hands earlier threw me a bit and I guess putting the over pairs in his range confused me. At the time I guessed vs his range I was not in too good shape. Do you agree IF I'd got his range accurate?

Poker Stove:

Board:
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 35.318% 35.32% 00.00% 15035 0.00 { TdTs }
Hand 1: 64.682% 64.68% 00.00% 27535 0.00 { JJ+, AJs+, A8s, KQs }

I guess what you are all saying is that you don't expect him to have an over pair and you'll take the draw on. Of which I would obviously agree totally with if I hadn't gotten this in my head.

Nobody ever put the over pairs in his range?

[paulpitchford]

do you have the ? If you do I might fancy peeling the flop donk and jamming over his turn bet, the stacks will be a little arkward for him OTT as well so might get him to make some bad chk/calls or even folds

I didn't have the 10h

agree with these insta ships often being draws, unless you have zero fe or something.

I normally go with this read tbf, just got my knickers in a twist!

Prefer min raising pre at this stage. Makes our steals cheaper and when get peeled the stack:pot ratio is larger so we have more manoeuvrability post flop to own ppl.

48k not practically min raising? I suppose 8k is 8k having said that.

Raise folding here is an absolute disaster. When you raise the flop have a plan as to what you are going to do if he shoves and if its fold then dont raise.

No if I'm perfectly honest which I know is bad. I must admit that fold wasn't the first thing that came into my mind and I ultimately talked myself out of the call for the reasons mentioned.

[cambridgealex]

I would definitely eliminate overpairs from his range. Seems extremely unlikely the he'd flat JJ+ in the SB and face being oop 3ways to the flop.

[paulpitchford]

I would definitely eliminate overpairs from his range. Seems extremely unlikely the he'd flat JJ+ in the SB and face being oop 3ways to the flop.

Again this is where I think I thought myself out of it and levelled myself. The eventual winner James was on his left and had been squeezing a fair amount. I'd won a pot from him earlier where he 4 bet bluffed 180k vs me when I 5 bet shipped AK. He mucked saying "miss read". I just thought that if the other player was aware of this, there is a chance he may flat here trying to induce James.