Rebuy/add on, or not?

[cambridgealex]

nobody ever contemplates EV here, they just see eveeryone else adding on and do likewise, monkey see monkey do, if you consider EV here then you should realise that you should be home playing an array of $5 freeze outs with $5k up top without any knob sacks stalling for 3 mins a decision and telling you about their daughters 23rd the week before

good mood again?!

[boldie]

nobody ever contemplates EV here, they just see eveeryone else adding on and do likewise, monkey see monkey do, if you consider EV here then you should realise that you should be home playing an array of $5 freeze outs with $5k up top without any knob sacks stalling for 3 mins a decision and telling you about their daughters 23rd the week before

Well said.

[zerofive]

nobody ever contemplates EV here, they just see eveeryone else adding on and do likewise, monkey see monkey do, if you consider EV here then you should realise that you should be home playing an array of $5 freeze outs with $5k up top without any knob sacks stalling for 3 mins a decision and telling you about their daughters 23rd the week before

Well said.

[zerofive]

My 2 cents on the matter:

For me it simply depends on how big you perceive your edge to be in terms of big blinds. If, after everyone has taken their addons, the table average is 15BB and we assume that nobody has a clue about shoving ranges etc. then you're in great shape with 25BB. I know you'll hear people saying "it's only 25BB, anything can happen," but anything can happen anyway. From experience, as long as we don't play like a mong during the rebuy period, it's very unlikely we need to take the full amount to final, and there's usually lots of deals, chops and savers around the cash bubble anyway.

[SuuPRlim]

I dont get how anyone can think the maximum EV decision IS NOT to take as many chips as possible, except in unusual circumstances.

say in a £20 triple for EG if you are contemplating taking 2 more stacks (a rebuy and an addon) at the end of the period, then  as long as your equity in the tournament at that stags increases by £40+ then its +EV.

Two points to consider
1) you're equity doesn't have to be £60, just over £40
2) consider the amount your equity DECREASES by not taking the chips, and the breakeven point of the dbl addon is £40 over that figure.

I think (although this is just basically a guess) the main example of a spot where its not going to be +EV tto do it is if you have a tiny stack and only 1 rebuy or addon left, chances are you wont increase your equity much with an addon and not adding on wont decrease it by a ton either, I think you'd have to have SOO many chips for ever to not be profitable when you have a big stack.

My 2 cents on the matter:

For me it simply depends on how big you perceive your edge to be in terms of big blinds. If, after everyone has taken their addons, the table average is 15BB and we assume that nobody has a clue about shoving ranges etc. then you're in great shape with 25BB. I know you'll hear people saying "it's only 25BB, anything can happen," but anything can happen anyway. From experience, as long as we don't play like a mong during the rebuy period, it's very unlikely we need to take the full amount to final, and there's usually lots of deals, chops and savers around the cash bubble anyway.

This is all true, but isnt relevant to the EV of the addons, this is just a strategic angle, you might decide for whatever reason to NOT take one of the rebuys for any reasons like this (bankroll/how your feeling/your table/an exploitation you think you have somewhere) but in most cases taking as many chips as possible will be the most immeadiatley profitable choice

[doubleup]

I'm probably just proving that a little knowledge is a dangerous thing, but I used an icm calculator to look at this

Player 1   20000.   0.1026   0.1023   0.1020   $14.85
...   ...
Player 9   20000.   0.1026   0.1023   0.1020   $14.85
Player 10   15000.   0.0769   0.0791   0.0817   $11.39

In my example 9 players all take an extra 5000 chips for $5 increasing the total pool to $145 from $100.  It looks like the player who doesn't take the extra increases his ev (from $10 to $11.39) at the expense of the others.


http://www.poker-tools-online.com/icm.html

[SuuPRlim]

I think that example is a little off

it assumes everyone has the same stack size, which would be true only at the start of the tournament and the addon or rebuy would be for 100% (is that right) of the initial stack not 25%.

[Simon Galloway]

I'm taking the max chips.  All the number calcs don't mention who else has chips.  If you are on a table full of donks with big stacks,  how can you not want to buy a stack that covers...

[doubleup]

I think that example is a little off

it assumes everyone has the same stack size, which would be true only at the start of the tournament and the addon or rebuy would be for 100% (is that right) of the initial stack not 25%.

not quite sure what you mean, but varied the stack sizes (2 x 25k, 2 x 20k, 3x 15k, 3 x 10k ) and got some wierd stuff,  assumption is that everyone rebuys for an extra 5000: the first figure is the equity before any rebuys, the second being the only one who doesnt rebuy and the third being the equity after a rebuy.

Player 2 25000 $14.58           $17.05      $20.00

Player 3 20000 $12.01           $13.96      $17.09

Player 5 15000 $9.26      $10.70      $13.09

Player 8 10000 $6.34      $7.28        $10.70


seems like if less than everage you shouldn't rebuy if everyone else is.

[doubleup]

I'm taking the max chips.  All the number calcs don't mention who else has chips.  If you are on a table full of donks with big stacks,  how can you not want to buy a stack that covers...

Thats tactical/skill which is fine ie overides the maths , but I'm trying to work out the maths atm.

[doubleup]

ok worked out where my odd results came from - my prize fund before buyins wasn't in proportion to the chips in play - so I have changed it so $5 = 5000 chips.  (was this what you meant supprim?)

The results work out very marginal and I would say that if my figures are correct tactical considerations are much more important than actual value of chips.

same method as above (chips, value before rebuy, value if only one not to rebuy and value with rebuy of 5000)

Player 2 25000 $24.06    $24.70        $29.00

Player 3 20000 $19.82    $20.21        $24.70    

Player 5 15000 $15.29    $15.49        $20.21

Player 8 10000 $10.46    $10.54        $15.46    


  

[outragous76]

Really not clear in OP as to when you can take your rebuys. But given you can take them at the end, I will assume you can take them at the start (or after hand 1). Therefore the error in this thread was made at hand 1.

Very surprised no one mentioned this


(oh and take the chips)

[George2Loose]

U can only take chips if you halve your stack (stupid I know)

[Rupert]

2) consider the amount your equity DECREASES by not taking the chips, and the breakeven point of the dbl addon is £40 over that figure.

I don't think this is correct in fact it's the opposite if you are +EV in the field?

[SuuPRlim]

2) consider the amount your equity DECREASES by not taking the chips, and the breakeven point of the dbl addon is £40 over that figure.

I don't think this is correct in fact it's the opposite if you are +EV in the field?

if you have 16k and you and 19 other people dont rebuy in a 100 player field and the average is 10k, the average is now 14k, despite the prizepool growing with it, i'm sure taking the ADD-On will increase the equity in the tourney by a higher £ amount than you're equity increasing due to the przepool  -  but yeah you're right the breakeven point ISNT (equity pre-rebuy+cost of rebuys) cos thats assuming you have 0EV in the field I think, i think the actual point would (equity pre-rebuy+cost of rebuys-equity gain by not rebuying) or something like that?

so glad I never play these things lol