Diary of a professional punter

[redarmi]

Just added ohio Gold @ 4/5 in the 130 which figures to go off a bit shorter.

[jakally]

  Quite a few racing bets already today.  1240 - Cotswold Charmer @ 3/1,

Nice start.... tyty.

[redarmi]

Just added ohio Gold @ 4/5 in the 130 which figures to go off a bit shorter.

If only every bet went to plan like this one. 

[Josedinho]

Can you give your opinion on "Draw No Bet" bets please?
I sometimes do them when opposing favourites and my reason for doing that rather than the outright win has always been to try and reduce the swings as I don't have a huge bankroll.
I've read opposing views as to whether they are generally better or worse value and just wondered what you thought or do you think it depends on each individual game?

[redarmi]

My approach tends to be to maximise EV.  I wrote a spreadsheet which I am very proud of which compares the prices across all of the various different markets so if, for example I make a team 6/5 to win the game and goals expectation 2.5 then it will tell me that the correct price for that team draw no bet is 1.59 and I use that as my basis for deciding on EV.  If the prices are the same then I suppose the best approach is to take the lowest variance route which in most cases would be draw no bet or plus the handicap for dogs.  Also if EV is the same taking the shortest priced option is probably beneficial in terms of keeping accounts open etc because bookies don't mind/notice even money losers as much as, say, 5/1 shots.  Not sure if I have totally answered your question or not...

[Josedinho]

Yeh that's great. It's basically what I thought. DNB is neither right or wrong. I do need to do more work on prices so maybe as a start I will record outright and DNB prices so that I at least develop some expectation of what the DNB price should be based on a teams outright price.

[calella]

Yeh that's great. It's basically what I thought. DNB is neither right or wrong. I do need to do more work on prices so maybe as a start I will record outright and DNB prices so that I at least develop some expectation of what the DNB price should be based on a teams outright price.

Jose

Where do you get these DNB prices from? Is it just Betair or do the High Street bookies offer them.

Was going to reactivate my Betfair a/c but yesterdays shambles has made me think twice about it.

Cheers

[doubleup]

Red I sometimes see "pk" and also "0" on asian handicaps on pinny - what is the difference?

[Josedinho]

Yeh that's great. It's basically what I thought. DNB is neither right or wrong. I do need to do more work on prices so maybe as a start I will record outright and DNB prices so that I at least develop some expectation of what the DNB price should be based on a teams outright price.

Jose

Where do you get these DNB prices from? Is it just Betair or do the High Street bookies offer them.

Was going to reactivate my Betfair a/c but yesterdays shambles has made me think twice about it.

Cheers

Pretty much everyone does them I think. If I like the price of a team I go to oddscheker to view all the markets on the game and check the DNB price and also the Asian handicap prices as +0 is the same thing so for Liverpool V Newcastle on Friday I'd look at these

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/liverpool-v-newcastle/draw-no-bet
http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/liverpool-v-newcastle/asian-handicap

[calella]

Yeh that's great. It's basically what I thought. DNB is neither right or wrong. I do need to do more work on prices so maybe as a start I will record outright and DNB prices so that I at least develop some expectation of what the DNB price should be based on a teams outright price.

Jose

Where do you get these DNB prices from? Is it just Betair or do the High Street bookies offer them.

Was going to reactivate my Betfair a/c but yesterdays shambles has made me think twice about it.

Cheers

Pretty much everyone does them I think. If I like the price of a team I go to oddscheker to view all the markets on the game and check the DNB price and also the Asian handicap prices as +0 is the same thing so for Liverpool V Newcastle on Friday I'd look at these

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/liverpool-v-newcastle/draw-no-bet
http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/liverpool-v-newcastle/asian-handicap

Thanks for that mate, i'll deffo have a look into this as can't do worse than i am at the moment.

[doubleup]

I wrote a spreadsheet which I am very proud of which compares the prices across all of the various different markets so if, for example I make a team 6/5 to win the game and goals expectation 2.5 then it will tell me that the correct price for that team draw no bet is 1.59 and I use that as my basis for deciding on EV. 

Sorry another q - I've made up a spreadsheet, but I only put in the goals.  In your example the "6/5" team would expect to score 1.45 goals, the dog to score 1.05 and this leads to odds of 2.16 and dnb of of 1.59.  So I only try to estimate the 1.45/1.05 bit and the odds follow, do you do something different?

also asked above, I sometimes see "pk" and also "0" on asian handicaps on pinny - what is the difference?

[redarmi]

I wrote a spreadsheet which I am very proud of which compares the prices across all of the various different markets so if, for example I make a team 6/5 to win the game and goals expectation 2.5 then it will tell me that the correct price for that team draw no bet is 1.59 and I use that as my basis for deciding on EV.

Sorry another q - I've made up a spreadsheet, but I only put in the goals.  In your example the "6/5" team would expect to score 1.45 goals, the dog to score 1.05 and this leads to odds of 2.16 and dnb of of 1.59.  So I only try to estimate the 1.45/1.05 bit and the odds follow, do you do something different?

also asked above, I sometimes see "pk" and also "0" on asian handicaps on pinny - what is the difference?

I put a supremacy and goals expectation into mine so basically the same thing.  Presumably you are using poisson distribution?  if so beware that that you need to add an extra multiplying effect for draws especially lower scoring draws and then take that off the probability of the other scores.  It is tough to get right but make the effort as it is worth it.

No diff between pk and 0 hcap.

[doubleup]

Presumably you are using poisson distribution?  if so beware that that you need to add an extra multiplying effect for draws especially lower scoring draws and then take that off the probability of the other scores.

thnks, I noticed it was very slightly off when I tested against a big table with last 10 years results - a bit more 1-1 draws than expected.

[redarmi]

I increase the 0-0's by 10% and the 1-1's by 5% but I think I probably should be a bit higher and used to use 15% and 7.5%.  Wish I knew the exact right figures to use but it is in that region for sure and so long as you use a margin for error with your bets ie 5% over price or similar then it won't make any real difference.

[redarmi]

Should probably add that some research I have done suggests that figure is different depending on what leagues you bet on.  I bet primarily on English leagues but an academic friend who did his phd on this is of the opinion that no adjustments at all should be made for Scottish Prem and Dutch leagues and quite a bit more should be made for leagues like Italy and France.  It is a complicated area for sure.  Basically if the betfair correct score market looks about right to your matrix you have made the right adjustments (assuming you agree with the goal and match odds of course)