Diary of a professional punter

[mondatoo]

It does look big but a couple of things put me off.  Firstly, Jussi Jaaskelainen is a doubt and secondly, the question marks about Cahills move.  Also have a feeling Donovan will be a big boost for Everton and might just solve their scoring problem albeit temporarily.

Yeah, think it was 11/2 yesterday then Jussi news made it 7's, still probably have a little dabble as it would be a lot to expect Donovan to have an instant impact, just think it will be a close game so a little bit of value.

[ACE2M]

Bolton are a really really poor side this year, worst in the league imo. Anichibee is also back and he is a decent striker without the injuries. I've done well backing against bolton all year.

[redarmi]

Bolton are a really really poor side this year, worst in the league imo. Anichibee is also back and he is a decent striker without the injuries. I've done well backing against bolton all year.

Another reason I can't quite pull the trigger is I have done my absolutes on them all year.  There are certain spots you think that teams with a bit of fight should be able to take advantage of and Bolton consistently fail....a bit like Liverpool actually.

[FUN4FRASER]

Thoughts on the Everton game tonight ? Pretty suprised at how this has been priced up, really don't see how Everton are 1/2 here when they've struggled to score goals all season, really feel Bolton are very backable at 7/1, clearly they're having a bad season but I just don't think there's that big a gap between the two.

1 -2 is very short for a goal shy Everton

[redarmi]

Speaking of, what do you make of Liverpool betting wise? Bloom/Benham seem to be in love with them (due to their high shot count I think) so it often seems really EV+ to get against Liverpool (like yesterday when City went to evens at one point)...not sure if that's just results-orientated though, or whether they've just got this one wrong.

I was on them yesterday because of the differences in rest time and also MC's poor recent form and it really is the kind of situation they should do well in but they just don't seem to get it done often enough for me and seem to miss that spark that the best teams have to get it done when the chips are down.  They also seem to lurch from one disaster to another which I think is an intrinsic problem at the club.  I would generally rather be against than with I think especially when they are a decent sized favourite.

[redarmi]

Incidentally you are almost certainly correct about it being the shots element that is likely what is putting them up as a bet for Bloom/Benham.  I believe it is a big part of their models but there is a trader that should be looking into the subjective elements that should be able to spot if the model is overrating a team....

[redarmi]

Was thinking about going to the Orange Bowl tonight but it is fairly cold here today and the Missus was fairly good about going to the Heat game the other night so should probably just spend some time with her given that I am leaving on Friday.  The lifestyle we have here far exceeds anything we could hope for in the UK and the weather is a massive bonus too but ultimately I am British and it will be nice to get back and get stuck into a new years punting and I am looking forward to a very good year and decided to set some goals.

1. Win £50k net. 
2. Work harder at finding outs and maximising my profits through access to accounts with almost all firms.  This will inevitably lead to me using others to get bets on but hopefully keep bad debt to a minimum.
3. Maintain a positive outlook and work as hard during the good runs as amongst the bad runs.
4. $10k+ poker profits for the year.

[redarmi]

Have bet overs in every market in United match tonight....ridiculously goal heavy lineup from Fergie....Hernandez, Welbeck, Rooney, Berbatov, Nani and Giggs all start.  defense still patched up.

[redarmi]

seems like some erroneous teams may be going around...have traded out of all of overs bets for now until can confirm.....shambles.

[Snowball]

Have bet overs in every market in United match tonight....ridiculously goal heavy lineup from Fergie....Hernandez, Welbeck, Rooney, Berbatov, Nani and Giggs all start.  defense still patched up.

Hernandez and Wellbeck aren't playing.

[Raman]

De Gea is out for Manure.

[Raman]

Newcastle: Krul, Simpson, Coloccini, Williamson, Santon, Ryan Taylor, Tiote, Cabaye, Gutierrez, Shola Ameobi, Ba.
Subs: Harper, Ben Arfa, Perch, Best, Obertan, Sammy Ameobi, Vuckic.


Man Utd: Lindegaard, Valencia, Ferdinand, Jones, Evra, Park, Carrick, Giggs, Nani, Berbatov, Rooney.
Subs: De Gea, Anderson, Hernandez, Welbeck, Rafael Da Silva, Pogba, Lingard.

[Horneris]

Newcastle: Krul, Simpson, Coloccini, Williamson, Santon, Ryan Taylor, Tiote, Cabaye, Gutierrez, Shola Ameobi, Ba.
Subs: Harper, Ben Arfa, Perch, Best, Obertan, Sammy Ameobi, Vuckic.


Man Utd: Wellbeck, Hernandez, Rooney, Berbatov, Cleverley, Giggs, Nani, Valencia, Owen, Diouf, Young.
Subs: Bebe, Pogba, W.Keane, Morrison, Van Nistelrooy, Cole, Solksjaer.

fyp.

[Solaris]

Surely Park would be a better right-back than Valencia? Can't work that out at all.

[ACE2M]

Moyes subs off Cahill and osman before 60 mins, no wonder they can't score.