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redarmi
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« Reply #315 on: November 15, 2011, 11:50:48 AM » |
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Opinions on the merits of fallers insurance?
e.g. paddy power are 9/4 about my earlier tip, 2/1 with fallers insurance (money back if it falls).
The only races I would even consider it would be novice chases. In handicap hurdles like your tip earlier it is nothing more than a nice to have and I certainly wouldn't take a worse price with it. |
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Raman
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« Reply #316 on: November 15, 2011, 12:06:03 PM » |
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Opinions on the merits of fallers insurance?
e.g. paddy power are 9/4 about my earlier tip, 2/1 with fallers insurance (money back if it falls).
The only races I would even consider it would be novice chases. In handicap hurdles like your tip earlier it is nothing more than a nice to have and I certainly wouldn't take a worse price with it. The horse ACE2M tipped up earlier fell last time out. If I was backing that horse I think I would prefer to have the insurance in place. Why would you only take it in Novice chases? I appreciate that you make your living from betting so would value your opinion on this one. |
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doubleup
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« Reply #317 on: November 15, 2011, 12:07:55 PM » |
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Opinions on the merits of fallers insurance?
e.g. paddy power are 9/4 about my earlier tip, 2/1 with fallers insurance (money back if it falls).
think if it is greater than 7% to fall this would be good (obv ignoring that 5/2 is available) my maths are that (if 9/4 is the true price): the horse wins 31% return .93 falls 7% return .07 loses without falling 62% return 0 total return 1 |
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typhoon13
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« Reply #318 on: November 15, 2011, 12:22:02 PM » |
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Bonnie prince last
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Raman
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« Reply #319 on: November 15, 2011, 12:24:37 PM » |
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Bonnie Prince Blue @ 25/1 its now around 12/1. I also like St Oswald in the same race, it could go well if handling the switch to fibresand.
Thankfully Sir Oswald ran ok. But Bonnie Prince Blue never beat anything. Thats one for the glue factory. |
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redarmi
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« Reply #320 on: November 15, 2011, 12:25:03 PM » |
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Opinions on the merits of fallers insurance?
e.g. paddy power are 9/4 about my earlier tip, 2/1 with fallers insurance (money back if it falls).
The only races I would even consider it would be novice chases. In handicap hurdles like your tip earlier it is nothing more than a nice to have and I certainly wouldn't take a worse price with it. The horse ACE2M tipped up earlier fell last time out. If I was backing that horse I think I would prefer to have the insurance in place. Why would you only take it in Novice chases? I appreciate that you make your living from betting so would value your opinion on this one. I would obviously take it wherever it was offered but I would only take a shorter price in a Novice Chase because that is the form of racing with the most amount of fallers. Iirc less than 3% of hurdlers fall and in chases it is closer to 8%. I would imagine novice chases are closer to 12% if not higher. Obviously if you could get the concession in chases then there are some courses whedre it would be more valuable than others. Aintree being the obvious example but also places like Stratford and Towcester. That said I have never seen it offered outside of hurdle races and, as such, I have never placed much value on it. |
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Raman
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« Reply #321 on: November 15, 2011, 12:33:27 PM » |
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Opinions on the merits of fallers insurance?
e.g. paddy power are 9/4 about my earlier tip, 2/1 with fallers insurance (money back if it falls).
The only races I would even consider it would be novice chases. In handicap hurdles like your tip earlier it is nothing more than a nice to have and I certainly wouldn't take a worse price with it. The horse ACE2M tipped up earlier fell last time out. If I was backing that horse I think I would prefer to have the insurance in place. Why would you only take it in Novice chases? I appreciate that you make your living from betting so would value your opinion on this one. I would obviously take it wherever it was offered but I would only take a shorter price in a Novice Chase because that is the form of racing with the most amount of fallers. Iirc less than 3% of hurdlers fall and in chases it is closer to 8%. I would imagine novice chases are closer to 12% if not higher. Obviously if you could get the concession in chases then there are some courses whedre it would be more valuable than others. Aintree being the obvious example but also places like Stratford and Towcester. That said I have never seen it offered outside of hurdle races and, as such, I have never placed much value on it. Okay, that makes much more sense now. I just assumed this was something new that PP were offering on all races over obstacles. If its only on selected races then it doesn't appeal so much. |
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ACE2M
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« Reply #322 on: November 15, 2011, 12:41:04 PM » |
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Opinions on the merits of fallers insurance?
e.g. paddy power are 9/4 about my earlier tip, 2/1 with fallers insurance (money back if it falls).
The only races I would even consider it would be novice chases. In handicap hurdles like your tip earlier it is nothing more than a nice to have and I certainly wouldn't take a worse price with it. The horse ACE2M tipped up earlier fell last time out. If I was backing that horse I think I would prefer to have the insurance in place. Why would you only take it in Novice chases? I appreciate that you make your living from betting so would value your opinion on this one. I would obviously take it wherever it was offered but I would only take a shorter price in a Novice Chase because that is the form of racing with the most amount of fallers. Iirc less than 3% of hurdlers fall and in chases it is closer to 8%. I would imagine novice chases are closer to 12% if not higher. Obviously if you could get the concession in chases then there are some courses whedre it would be more valuable than others. Aintree being the obvious example but also places like Stratford and Towcester. That said I have never seen it offered outside of hurdle races and, as such, I have never placed much value on it. paddys do it on every jumps race i think. |
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redarmi
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« Reply #323 on: November 15, 2011, 12:44:55 PM » |
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If that is the case then it is an amazing offer in certain races.
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Raman
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« Reply #324 on: November 15, 2011, 12:50:56 PM » |
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I have backed Gracies Gift here for very small stakes.
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millidonk
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« Reply #325 on: November 15, 2011, 12:59:08 PM » |
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I have backed Gracies Gift here for very small stakes.
sigh, missed this. n1. post earlier plz.  |
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Eso Kral
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« Reply #326 on: November 15, 2011, 01:02:02 PM » |
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I have backed Gracies Gift here for very small stakes.
sigh, missed this. n1. post earlier plz. you would have backed it to win though milligan!! 16/1 a bit short for e/w would have been your reply  |
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Andrew Charles Blacklock - Lived for those he loved and those he loved remember.
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millidonk
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« Reply #327 on: November 15, 2011, 01:04:23 PM » |
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I have backed Gracies Gift here for very small stakes.
sigh, missed this. n1. post earlier plz. you would have backed it to win though milligan!! 16/1 a bit short for e/w would have been your reply looool. muuuuuuuuuug. You are the only guy i know who backs odds on favs ew. "ooooh, oooh but you get 1/12th of your stake back if it places" |
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Raman
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« Reply #328 on: November 15, 2011, 01:04:57 PM » |
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I was sure I had mentioned Reggie Perrin in a previous post, but I can't find it. Anyway I sent about 10 minutes looking for it and in doing so missed the race here a Folkestone. FML
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Raman
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« Reply #329 on: November 15, 2011, 01:42:38 PM » |
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Bay Central |
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Author