****OFFICIAL****: Horse tip Thread

[Karabiner]

Tips were more solid when they used to come in on their own threads. Like the dewi thread. This thread just seams to be anybody tipping up a fancy. Yea they might of studied the past form etc  but just seams like theres no solid info from behind the scenes. I wasnt on btw.

As it is certainties that you are after girgles I will only put mine up after they have won to eliminate the risk factor.

Thats not my point at all. My point is that as there is an ***OFFICIAL***Thread for tips that people just jump on a post 'fancies' of theirs instead of 'Tips' that were in their own thread.

Basically a "tip" means that someone shrewd or a "face" (i.e. somebody who shows a profit in the long run) is betting their money. They will have already probably snaffled the best available prices so what was +ev might not now be so as what is "value @ 9/2 might well not be @ 7/2.

You have to decide for yourself which of the posters know their onions and how much value might be left in their selections which they are sharing with you.

As someone smart once said "there is no free lunch", and that is an absolute certainty.

[doubleup]

As someone smart once said "there is no free lunch"

But that was before the ****OFFICIAL**** free lunch thread

[redarmi]

To be honest I don't really understand what the difference is that you are talking about.  What are you defining as a 'tip'?  Karabiner is closest in his post in so far as that selections on their own are absolutely useless.  I 'fancy' a lot of horses everyday and I bet a lot of horses everyday.  On a couple of days a week there is absolutely no overlap between the two lists.  Price is absolutely everything and until most punters get this into their heads they will just continue to drip feed money into the bookies satchells.  Eso Kral did tip up Sirius Prospect a couple of times on this board and he has done well out of it but the info on its own is only a part of the puzzle.  Hope Eso doesn't mind me saying but the last tiem Sirious ran he showed he understood this enough to ask me to price the race in advance for him.  I said i thought it was 5/1 the frint two Our Jonathan and Sirius with another at about 6/1.  Obv if he had soem stable info that would change those prices a bit but not not massively...the info he got I thought made it a decent bet at 7/2+...it was 11/2 so it was a very good bet that day.  At evens it cannot poosibly be a bet even if Eso says the stable have their kids on it.  It is all about price.  Everything has a price and sometimes that means betting long odds on and other times it means passing on a 33/1 shot.  IMO a 'tip' without a prive proviso is pretty much pointless.

[Raman]

I pretty much agree with what Red Armi says in his last post.

I don't see what benefit me or anyone else giving analysis helps others make a decision, I would think that those following these "tips" were most likely just to get involved regardless.  There are a few posters whom follow certain selections from what I can see but don't get involved in everything.   

Like Red Armi, I fancy numerous horses every other day I bet on around 60% of all races.  I do okay.  Some days are much better than others, generally though I wouldn't dream of sticking a horse on here at 10/11 or EVNS etc as anyone could do that and it makes the thready pretty much pointless, otherwise we could start an ****OFFICIAL FAVOURITES**** thread.  I have said on a few occasions and have answered pm's to the same extent, when i post a horse here more often than not its because I have seen it race before and thought there might be potential improvement or I believe the conditions that it was running in on any given day may have suited better than what it ran on previously hence why I think it may improve.  Also I might put up a few that I have heard bits of info flying around.  I don't have any access to stables or info about what horses have been working well at home and stuff like that. 

Atlantis Crossing - 1st - 22/1
Time Square - lost
Hygrove Welshlady 2nd 12/1
Waltzing Cat lost
Periloulsy 3rd 12/1
Colour of Love 1st 14/1
Betty Brook 3rd 28/1
Adam De Beaulieu Lost
Raucous Behaviour 1st 8/1
Clockmaker Lost
Tartiflette 1st 20/1 - Advised to Girgy via PM
Pearl Frost lost - advised to Girgy via PM
Thomas Edison 3rd 12//1
Blue Shoes 3rd 14/1
Dawn Eclipse - Lost
Aneedah - Lost
Goldikova - advised as a lay in the breeders cup.
Havre De Grace Lost
Lost City 2nd 15/2
Sky Crystal 1st 9/2
Weetentherty lost
Gloriam 2nd 7/2
Blue Moon lost
Crimson Queen lost
Miss Bounty - lost
Wings Of Icarus  1st 2/1
Billy Blade - Lost
Trip The Light 3rd 14/1
Les Verguettes 2nd 11/2
Ice Nelly lost
Camrock Star lost
Woolfall Sovereign  2nd 7/1
Needwood Ridge lost
St Oswald 2nd 13/2
Bonnie Prince Blue lost
Gracies Gift 3rd 16/1
Flying Pickets 1st 11/8
Double Duchess 3rd 14/1
San Antonio lost
Absolute Shambles lost
Glenwood Present lost
Dubaianswer lost
Podgies Boy lost
Emilys Flyer2nd 3/1
Chasin Rainbows  lost
Sandfrankskipsgo lost
Lucky Art lost
Take over Sivola Lost
Molly Round lost
Whoateallthepius lost
Shutthefrontdoor 1st 9/2
Mountainous lost

The above is a list of the horses I have put up on here as bets since the 1st of November, I haven't done the maths on it but I would reckon that I am still a good few quid in front to a level £1 stake.  Now bearing in mind most of my selections are normally decent prices I back them e/w. 

I'm going to get my head down for the night and will work out the profit/loss tomorrow morning but if someone fancies giving it a go before then i'd be happy to see the figures to a £1 e/w and to make things easier I'll settle on 1/5 the odds on the placed efforts. 

[Horneris]

rofl @ Advised to Girgy via PM

[Girgy85]

rofl @ Advised to Girgy via PM

Yea and i backed the wrong one sigh

[redarmi]

If you take out the 20-1 advised by pm to Girgy then you are winning 3.5 points over 50 bets.  I cba to work out the place element because it is such a laughably bad strategy to bet horses each way because they are a big price without any idea of the number of runners, price of the favourite or type of race.  Not really a rubdown but I would happily lay you evens that you could win over a fresh 100 bet sample.

[action man]

looks like countdown to another 'different kind of staking'

im betting 3 tommorow 12.50 elegant touch e/w in the 12.50 if its 7/2+ emma lavelle horses flying, and the horse has a 7lb pull with the fav with beat it 4l last time out over C+D should go very close etc....yawn
                                  1.10 really like ezra church e/w at the 6/1 has won well fresh in the past fresh over C+D barrons horses are well in form, and i think its very solid e/w punt
                                  12.10 ive backed sir louis at 12/1. Also won fresh and is back following bursting a blood vessell when previously looking very progressive, i think its worth a punt at 12/1

[GreekStein]

degens gonna degen

[action man]

nosey fuckers gonna nosey fuck

[ACE2M]

most horses i back i have done it by 9:15 and the price is gone by 9:30am at the latest so i don't post them.


I only post if i think/am told there is some value left about the price of a horse.

[Eso Kral]

To be honest I don't really understand what the difference is that you are talking about.  What are you defining as a 'tip'?  Karabiner is closest in his post in so far as that selections on their own are absolutely useless.  I 'fancy' a lot of horses everyday and I bet a lot of horses everyday.  On a couple of days a week there is absolutely no overlap between the two lists.  Price is absolutely everything and until most punters get this into their heads they will just continue to drip feed money into the bookies satchells.  Eso Kral did tip up Sirius Prospect a couple of times on this board and he has done well out of it but the info on its own is only a part of the puzzle.  Hope Eso doesn't mind me saying but the last tiem Sirious ran he showed he understood this enough to ask me to price the race in advance for him.  I said i thought it was 5/1 the frint two Our Jonathan and Sirius with another at about 6/1.  Obv if he had soem stable info that would change those prices a bit but not not massively...the info he got I thought made it a decent bet at 7/2+...it was 11/2 so it was a very good bet that day.  At evens it cannot poosibly be a bet even if Eso says the stable have their kids on it.  It is all about price.  Everything has a price and sometimes that means betting long odds on and other times it means passing on a 33/1 shot.  IMO a 'tip' without a prive proviso is pretty much pointless.

Obv i dont mind at all and your 100% correct

[StuartHopkin]

Lolaments

Please tell me you arent expecting to win on this thread Girgles?

You have to decide who to follow and who not to!

[millidonk]

Lolaments

Please tell me you arent expecting to win on this thread Girgles?

You have to decide who to follow and who not to!

 

[Raman]

rofl @ Advised to Girgy via PM

To quantify Girgy was the one who started to complain.  So in theory, he should/could have been the person to benefit most from this thread.  

looks like countdown to another 'different kind of staking'

Not the case at all.