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Poker Hand Analysis
Hero fold?
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Topic: Hero fold? (Read 2761 times)
cambridgealex
Hero Member
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Posts: 14799
#lovethegame
Hero fold?
«
on:
November 13, 2011, 05:00:27 AM »
1/2 live cash, an unknown fishy player limps utg, I iso
on the button to £10, bb and utg peel.
checks to me, I cbet £16, both call quickly
checks to me, I check behind
bb checks, utg quickly bets £100 into £78.
This bet is pretty polarising and IMO never a bluff. It looks either like a 6 trying to get paid by an ace, or a flush trying to get paid by a 6/ace. It didn't look like a bare ace. 43ss is the only flush that beats me
Apart from 66 what 6x combos overcall flop? Even 66 may a) raise pre and b) not snap call flop.
Who agrees with these assumptions/conclusions? Fold/call?
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SuuPRlim
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Re: Hero fold?
«
Reply #1 on:
November 13, 2011, 11:33:27 AM »
honestly i think this would be a fine spot for a hero fold.
what I would have done is tank for ~2mins, realise he prolly has a better hand, flick the call in get shown a flush and then berate myself for the next 35mins for not folding.
seriously though you need to have SOME reads on his tendancies, otherwise it might be a bad fold under the "assume awful till proven otherwise" theory.
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Leedszilla
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Re: Hero fold?
«
Reply #2 on:
November 13, 2011, 12:21:22 PM »
Quote from: SuuPRlim on November 13, 2011, 11:33:27 AM
honestly i think this would be a fine spot for a hero fold.
what I would have done is tank for ~2mins, realise he prolly has a better hand, flick the call in get shown a flush and then berate myself for the next 35mins for not folding.
seriously though you need to have SOME reads on his tendancies, otherwise it might be a bad fold under the "assume awful till proven otherwise" theory.
Big fan of that theory.
Partly depends on how loose he is, plenty of casino fish show up here with
or
, and there are quite a few aggro fish who will bluff in this spot (think early 30s, dressed like mid 20s, (fake) gucci sunglasses, diamond ring, gaudy watch etc) though for every one of these there are at least 10 who just aren't capable of it. Everyone does look super weak in this pot, so there's an argument for saying it's a bluff at least 5% of the time. All in all I'm probably calling, have to win 36% to show a profit, figure we're probably just on the right side of that.
Thoughts on continuing on the turn? For say £46?
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DMorgan
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Re: Hero fold?
«
Reply #3 on:
November 13, 2011, 12:25:46 PM »
Quote from: SuuPRlim on November 13, 2011, 11:33:27 AM
honestly i think this would be a fine spot for a hero fold.
what I would have done is tank for ~2mins, realise he prolly has a better hand, flick the call in get shown a flush and then berate myself for the next 35mins for not folding.
seriously though you need to have SOME reads on his tendancies, otherwise it might be a bad fold under the "assume awful till proven otherwise" theory.
+1
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Eso Kral
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Re: Hero fold?
«
Reply #4 on:
November 13, 2011, 12:40:10 PM »
Quote from: Leedszilla on November 13, 2011, 12:21:22 PM
Quote from: SuuPRlim on November 13, 2011, 11:33:27 AM
honestly i think this would be a fine spot for a hero fold.
what I would have done is tank for ~2mins, realise he prolly has a better hand, flick the call in get shown a flush and then berate myself for the next 35mins for not folding.
seriously though you need to have SOME reads on his tendancies, otherwise it might be a bad fold under the "assume awful till proven otherwise" theory.
Big fan of that theory.
Partly depends on how loose he is, plenty of casino fish show up here with
or
, and there are quite a few aggro fish who will bluff in this spot
(think early
30s
40's, dressed like mid 20s, (fake) gucci sunglasses, diamond ring, gaudy watch etc)
though for every one of these there are at least 10 who just aren't capable of it. Everyone does look super weak in this pot, so there's an argument for saying it's a bluff at least 5% of the time. All in all I'm probably calling, have to win 36% to show a profit, figure we're probably just on the right side of that.
Thoughts on continuing on the turn? For say £46?
FYP and this came to mind!!
][URL=http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/856/herbie.jpg/]
<3 Herbie
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smashedagain
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Re: Hero fold?
«
Reply #5 on:
November 13, 2011, 05:12:45 PM »
lol....std fold to me and dont even come into the hero class. mind you i hero tank call with 2nd nuts often.
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SuuPRlim
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Re: Hero fold?
«
Reply #6 on:
November 13, 2011, 07:05:45 PM »
if we bet the turn we have to be prepared to fire a mighty old river bullet, its a fine play in theory because you range is a lot stronger than everyone elses in this hand
expect JT to look you up though lol <3 live poker
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pleno1
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Re: Hero fold?
«
Reply #7 on:
November 13, 2011, 07:38:46 PM »
we have 5 of one suit right? you didnt raise
? call quickly.
then berate yourself
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Quote from: TightEnd on December 16, 2013, 12:59:59 AM
Worst playcalling I have ever seen. Bunch of fucking jokers . Run the bloody ball. 18 rushes all game? You have to be kidding me. Fuck off lol
Whollyflush
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Posts: 686
Re: Hero fold?
«
Reply #8 on:
November 13, 2011, 10:59:03 PM »
meh hes fishy, he probably gets to the river with to many hands and we have a flush. Give him a spin.
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stato_1
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Re: Hero fold?
«
Reply #9 on:
November 14, 2011, 12:22:10 AM »
Think this is a call because of the whole 2345 thing, as you have raised pre, checked back flop, random live fish puts you on ace and king. He will have figured out that Ace and King has a made a river run, and its hard to fold a run, so I think he thinks he's trying to outsmart you by betting large with his lovely 6-run here often enough to make this a call.
Also if hes a fish then he can easily get here with J6s, 56, 46, 66
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cambridgealex
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Re: Hero fold?
«
Reply #10 on:
November 14, 2011, 01:51:43 AM »
I folded he showed
then claimed a6o
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david3103
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Re: Hero fold?
«
Reply #11 on:
November 14, 2011, 10:41:41 AM »
Quote from: cambridgealex on November 14, 2011, 01:51:43 AM
I folded he showed
then claimed a6o
You can get people to call £16 on that flop with A6o? That would be nice if he's speaking the truth..
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mulhuzz
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Re: Hero fold?
«
Reply #12 on:
November 14, 2011, 11:51:38 AM »
Quote from: cambridgealex on November 13, 2011, 05:00:27 AM
43ss is the only flush that beats me
que?
he gets to showdown with over 9000 combos and remember that however weirdly unknown has played the hand, there's a % chance he has Aces.
just call it off.
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Kilgore_Trout
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Posts: 38
Re: Hero fold?
«
Reply #13 on:
November 14, 2011, 01:14:26 PM »
He bets quickly and a large amount - more than the pot.
Thats enough for me to think he could well be bluffing so I'd call. Especially now I know he has A6o.
Usually value bets would be smaller and more carefully considered.
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smashedagain
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if you are gonna kiss arse you have to do it right
Re: Hero fold?
«
Reply #14 on:
November 14, 2011, 01:32:01 PM »
100% good fold
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