$35 180 mans proposal....

[EvilPie]

The Ho gotta be sweating soon

Not a dig at u Mond, standard variance etc mate- didnt want that being taken wrong way, was just light hearted at the Ho

Blonde is in serious need of a 'like' button

[SuuPRlim]

The Ho gotta be sweating soon

Not a dig at u Mond, standard variance etc mate- didnt want that being taken wrong way, was just light hearted at the Ho

Blonde is in serious need of a 'like' button

+1.

gl monda obv rooting for you

[mondatoo]

Sigh, another day of bricks means we need to reload again. We are down 170bi's now which although it is disappointing 200+bi swings at these are really standard and I have absolutely no doubt I am profitable in these games, just sucks that so few run so it takes so much longer to ride through the variance. Lmk plz who's in for reloading.

[mondatoo]

Games today : 17
Loss today : $595.00

Current balance : $19.52

[sovietsong]

Chin up mate. Dont worry about it. Next bullet we win the world!

How much is paulho selling his mu for?

[mondatoo]

Chin up mate. Dont worry about it. Next bullet we win the world!

How much is paulho selling his mu for?

Chin is up, and don't think he is.

[sovietsong]

Will ship my $200 asap

When are you next planning to play? I'm out over the next few days so can bank xfer if needed

[mondatoo]

Will play Sunday if sorted in time, otherwise whenever sorted. Bank/Stars both fine, Stars is easiest.

[sovietsong]

Will play Sunday if sorted in time, otherwise whenever sorted. Bank/Stars both fine, Stars is easiest.

Should be fine for stars if I've got till Sunday.

Pm me bank details if I'm delaying anything as can sort that on my phone.

[sovietsong]

PS if anyone wants to sell MU at 50% I will buy some more

[The Lad]

in

[MC]

Sigh, another day of bricks means we need to reload again. We are down 170bi's now which although it is disappointing 200+bi swings at these are really standardand I have absolutely no doubt I am profitable in these games, just sucks that so few run so it takes so much longer to ride through the variance. Lmk plz who's in for reloading.

I wouldn't say 'really standard' dude. Yes I'd say it's standard/expected, but ~200 buy-in downswings only occur on occasion?

Obv in & have shipped.

GLGL, win now please.

[Doobs]

Sigh, another day of bricks means we need to reload again. We are down 170bi's now which although it is disappointing 200+bi swings at these are really standardand I have absolutely no doubt I am profitable in these games, just sucks that so few run so it takes so much longer to ride through the variance. Lmk plz who's in for reloading.

I wouldn't say 'really standard' dude. Yes I'd say it's standard/expected, but ~200 buy-in downswings only occur on occasion?

I'd echo this.  I did a bit of back of the envelope stats, and I think the chance of your results for a breakeven player is probably less than 5% over the 470 games you have played.  If you are profitable, it should be even lower. 

I know I have nothing to do with this staking, but if this happened to me, I'd be at least stopping to reassess.

I think I get psychological blocks sometimes with particular tournaments when on a bad streak.  Sometimes just taking a breather from that particular tournament and hittting them fresh can make a difference.

Good luck.

[SuuPRlim]

I'd echo this.  I did a bit of back of the envelope stats, and I think the chance of your results for a breakeven player is probably less than 5% over the 470 games you have played.  If you are profitable, it should be even lower. 

how did you work this out? I have no history with sng's whatsoever but I can't imagine that less than 1 in 20 times and breakeven player will lose 170buyins in 470 games. Seems like it should happen way more frequently given the nature of these things.

I have no idea though would be interested to see how this stuff is worked out, i'm going purely on instinct

[Doobs]

I just did a quick sharkscope, and he got 34 top 10 % finishes in 470 games.  This should be a binomial distribution with probability 10%, so he should be getting 47 on average if he is average (I used break even incorrectly). 

Standard deviation is 6.5 or so (hopefully).  Hence he is 2 standard deviations away from average.  Approximating this to normal, which should be ok over this sample is just about spot on a 95% confidence interval.   You have a 1 in 20 chance of been more than 2 standard deviations either way.   Looking at negative 2 standard deviations down only it is around 1 in 40.

I don't know if these are a lot tougher than the $15 ones, but whatever the reason for the downswing I'd take a break if I saw this in my results.

Apologies if the stats is rubbish.

Doobs