$35 180 mans proposal....

[mondatoo]

Obv it sucks that we have ran shit from the start, but it is standard (think I just say really a lot). I'd expect to have a few of them over the period of a year in my games. I can assure backers that I don't have a "physchological block" in these games nor is the standard between 35's and 15's so different that I'd be a proven winner in one but a losing player in the other.

We where in profit at the start of the year so since then I have played 291 games, made 12 finals finishing : 3,3,5,5,5,5,6,6,7,7,9,9 this is why we are doing shit not because I can't beat the games.

This is the payouts:

1st 1735.06
2nd 1156.68
3rd 688.22
4th 462.67
5th 375.92
6th 289.17
7th 202.41
8th 150.36
9th 98.31

As I've already said, I've ran terrible on finals whether it be AA<<<<<KK for close to 1/2 the chips in play to then lose a flip to bust 5th or me jamming in really std spots and being crushed. I'm obv not a huge noob that would play $35 finals different to my other games, I play every game dependant on who is on my tables, some of the finals for 35's have been really soft, doesn't matter if you get coolered though.

[mondatoo]

Also just to add, as far as re-assessing things my side, I go through wiz before every session so I'm constantly assessing what I'm doing.

[SuuPRlim]

I just did a quick sharkscope, and he got 34 top 10 % finishes in 470 games.  This should be a binomial distribution with probability 10%, so he should be getting 47 on average if he is average (I used break even incorrectly). 

Standard deviation is 6.5 or so (hopefully).  Hence he is 2 standard deviations away from average.  Approximating this to normal, which should be ok over this sample is just about spot on a 95% confidence interval.   You have a 1 in 20 chance of been more than 2 standard deviations either way.   Looking at negative 2 standard deviations down only it is around 1 in 40.

I don't know if these are a lot tougher than the $15 ones, but whatever the reason for the downswing I'd take a break if I saw this in my results.

Apologies if the stats is rubbish.

Doobs

Doobs you're gonna have to excuse me if I make a big mistake here as I'm slightly dyslexic with numbers.

If he should have made 47 finals, and he's made 34, he is making 72% of the finals he should be, which seems like a completely standard "EV" of finals swing, so lets say the two outcomes would be final or not final, his EV of finals would be 47 but he is in fact on 34 over a very small sample - would have been equally as unlikely for him to make 60 finals? that would have been the reverse swing.

So consider now the play on the actual final where the money is won/lost, the average stack for the final is 30,000, so sposing everyone 1 in 10 times he finals with a 30,000 stack what would his average finishing position be if he had say a 5% Edge? it would be $601.86? (all nine payouts/9*1.05)? is this right or am i being a complete moron? lol

but the sample of finals is so small there is no way to be anywhere near true expectation?

I guess the point i'm arguing is that whereas the maths to come up with the 5% figure is DEFO right (you know way better than me) that doesn't go anyway to explaining the $EV gap - say a flip for 100,000 pot 4handed, with equity of about $1300, that's a 10buyin EV swing right there, I can't see how it connects relevance of a 170buying downswing. Although I'd like to see it because it's very interesting.

Not trying to be argumentative I'm just genuinely interested. thanks for taking the time to explain ^^^.

[MC]

There's no need to pull any numbers up, I was just calling Mondatoo out on the word 'really'. I don't think it's as unlikely as Doobs' numbers suggest.

Our finish distribution is ridic brutal, I'm sure things will swong upwards soon

[EvilPie]

Sent.

[sovietsong]

I've bought Silo's share so shipped $300 ray

glgl

[The Lad]

sent

[paulhouk03]

Shipped

[mondatoo]

So...

The Lad 5% PAID
Soviet 15% PAID
Paul Ho 50% PAID
MC 15% PAID
EvilPie 7.5% PAID
Claypole 7.5%

Balance is $2019.52*

*Shaun has confirmed he is in so will get back to these tmoro.

[sovietsong]

gl today raymundo!

[mondatoo]

Got 90k with 12 left, just busted another with another fukn 5th, AK<<<<AA.

[mondatoo]

1/7, Stars have once again decided to fuk over SNG grinders by hosting comps that the server can't handle so all SNG's are paused, this must be like the 5th issue this year, pretty lame.

[MC]

gogogo!

[toddswain]

HU gogogogo

[mondatoo]

BOOOOOOOOOOOMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMM, THANK FUCK