Flopped trips, bluff catching on the river?

[rbc_mike]

Yeh I agree that leading the turn pretty much turns our hand face up, unless we can have a balanced range here? (i.e. some nines, flush draws, full houses, aces etc.) But then again, this is 50p/£1, can't see villains understanding a range, let alone a balanced one.

As Sean has eluded to, I made a fold, on reflection, a bad one! At the time, I think my thought process was indeed one of 'fish always have it here'.  As I said in OP, more concerned with MP+1 than sb, sb has a wide range that I am ahead of.  Just see so many ppl live pay off, I just wanted to think a bit deeper than 'i have an ace, call', but I guess this isn't 300/600 on HSP.

Appreciate all the feedback tho, I really feel that calling pre oop with is a leak here? Like, is a snap fold pre for me in the bb here, but nut potential of makes it a bit more appealing/playable oop?
Will post results soon or do ppl want them now?

[cambridgealex]

Results aren't really that important, you could've folded and been wrong but it be the correct fold, similarly you could've called, been right and it be the wrong call.

I suppose in this case it could be useful to confirm our reads that he was vbetting 9x or JJ etc.

Fwiw, I do think it's possible to lead the turn here and be fairly balanced. I'd lead 9x, Ax, full houses and flush draws SOMETIMES. I think it's close between checking/betting and probably depends on what level the other players in the pot are thinking. The worse they are, the more I'm leaning towards leading the turn.

As eluded to already, I think people are being far too concerned with balance. In a 50/1 balance just isn't necessary at all. Really, it's not.

As the game becomes more reg infested it becomes more important of course, but if it's you and Sean and 2 fish in a pot, I'd be MUCH less concered about turning my hand/range face up vs Sean, if it means stacking one of the fish.

This is where it's gets really interesting. Because you can turn your hand faceup as being Ax here by doing xy or z and reg B in the pot knows this, then he raises you?! the levelling wars are endless!

[rbc_mike]

Ok so results:

Hero folds. Sb shows  (really surprised he didn't three bet pre tbh).
Villain (MP+1) mucks.

D'oh! Though as Alex said, result isn't that important, wanted to think about ranges and peoples' thought processes.

Fwiw, I do think it's possible to lead the turn here and be fairly balanced. I'd lead 9x, Ax, full houses and flush draws SOMETIMES. I think it's close between checking/betting and probably depends on what level the other players in the pot are thinking. The worse they are, the more I'm leaning towards leading the turn.

+1. Tbh although it turns my hand quite face up, I feel now that I probs should have bet something like £20 for value/balance, even if MP+1 folds, sb can still call turn and river if he thinks I'm value owning myself with a 9, TT, JJ, or I'm bluffing.  I pretty much never expect to get c-r by sb on turn.

the levelling wars are endless!

#whenwillitend

Thanks for the feedback so far

[cambridgealex]

welcome to blonde!

anything lildave (suprilim) says in pha is gold dust btw, ignore at your peril!

[pleno1]

if we c/r river what does he call with?

[SuuPRlim]

your pre-river line in this hand is, imo, really good, the mistake you've made is thinking "he wouldn't do X with Y hand, and would only have X in Y spot" and etc.

one of the top nuances to live cash games are being able to fully identify people's motives, in and out of hands, once you do this you should be much more adept getting into his thought processes. for example, Who is this guy, why is he here, does he have a job/family etc, why is he playing card games with me at 3.15am? Is he a quiet/polite person, he is loud and brash, does he have an ego etc...

These kind of questions are pretty important and it's actually really easy to find the answers to most of them because you can just ask most of the time lol, a polite, family man in his 40's is way less likely to be bluffing than a brash, overly confident man (business owner) who's hitting on the valets, this person is also way more likely to have an ego and to try thin-ish value bets "I made this kid call with just X" and so on. If he has kids the chances are he has to be up early and will be looking to splash as much as possible, and so on....

Playing game theory optimal is great and its 100% essential to know for any success in poker, but games at this level you need to put that mostly to one side and just try identify with the opposition and why they are here doing what they are doing, what it is they are actually trying to achieve - and give them it (it's rarely going to be "make money" btw)

The point i'm trying to make is sitting there thinking what your perceived range is and so on is time wasted when you could be looking at the guy or asking him what he does for a living/if he has kids/what he's doing tomorrow etc

Someone showed me a good video the other day where one of the first things said was...

"exploiting your opponents will always be more profitable than game theory optimal play" so true of these live games.

[rbc_mike]

Insert Quote
your pre-river line in this hand is, imo, really good, the mistake you've made is thinking "he wouldn't do X with Y hand, and would only have X in Y spot" and etc.

one of the top nuances to live cash games are being able to fully identify people's motives, in and out of hands, once you do this you should be much more adept getting into his thought processes. for example, Who is this guy, why is he here, does he have a job/family etc, why is he playing card games with me at 3.15am? Is he a quiet/polite person, he is loud and brash, does he have an ego etc...

These kind of questions are pretty important and it's actually really easy to find the answers to most of them because you can just ask most of the time lol, a polite, family man in his 40's is way less likely to be bluffing than a brash, overly confident man (business owner) who's hitting on the valets, this person is also way more likely to have an ego and to try thin-ish value bets "I made this kid call with just X" and so on. If he has kids the chances are he has to be up early and will be looking to splash as much as possible, and so on....

Playing game theory optimal is great and its 100% essential to know for any success in poker, but games at this level you need to put that mostly to one side and just try identify with the opposition and why they are here doing what they are doing, what it is they are actually trying to achieve - and give them it (it's rarely going to be "make money" btw)

The point i'm trying to make is sitting there thinking what your perceived range is and so on is time wasted when you could be looking at the guy or asking him what he does for a living/if he has kids/what he's doing tomorrow etc

Someone showed me a good video the other day where one of the first things said was...

"exploiting your opponents will always be more profitable than game theory optimal play" so true of these live games.

I found this post really interesting and useful , appreciate the advice.  Think this PHA has really shown me that there is so much more to poker than just the mechanics of betting folding etc. in a live scenario.  Think by not evaluating MP+1's motivation from his point of view, I overcomplicated the hand. I mean, its 50/1 at DTD ffs lol, people like pairs, people don't fold pairs, the game is often as easy as that.

[SuuPRlim]

well remember online default assumptions/lines are a lot more practical because a lot less information is available to you