FML river spot with set

[cambridgealex]

Villain is 26/12/2.6 over 1.8k hands. The only note I have is "peeled a 18bb 4b IP with A2dd 90bbs deep"

Preflop: Hero is CO with   
1 fold, rmf13 raises to $5.00, Hero raises to $15.00, 3 folds, rmf13 calls $15.00
 
Flop: ($38.00)      (2 players)
rmf13 checks, Hero checks
 
Turn: ($38.00)       (2 players)
rmf13 checks, Hero checks
 
River: ($38.00)        (2 players)
rmf13 bets $33.00, Hero raises to $79.00, rmf13 raises to $150.00, Hero?

80 more to call, pot is 265. anything but AQ?

[George2Loose]

This another call for future info spot?

[rfgqqabc]

Is he all in? If he peeled a 3b that light he could easily have a 2pair, but its got to be a fold when he does this on the river.

[david3103]

Do we not c-bet this flop?
Only one over card, oppo needs a K or some hearts to call. Or is that just too obvious?

As played it does look very like AQ, but that plus JJ seem to be the only hands that beat you...

Expensive info though if wrong...

[Rupert]

3 bet pre is pretty awful, r fold river is good he's a nittttttt

[cambridgealex]

Do we not c-bet this flop?
Only one over card, oppo needs a K or some hearts to call. Or is that just too obvious?

So you want him to fold when we bet? That means you're bluffing? You're saying we can only get called by a K or flush draw. Which is exactly why I didn't bet. We don't fold out anything we beat by betting, and we don't get called by much worse. Checking is uber standard.

[david3103]

Do we not c-bet this flop?
Only one over card, oppo needs a K or some hearts to call. Or is that just too obvious?

So you want him to fold when we bet? That means you're bluffing? You're saying we can only get called by a K or flush draw. Which is exactly why I didn't bet. We don't fold out anything we beat by betting, and we don't get called by much worse. Checking is uber standard.

But now we're in this FML spot on the river and we're thinking of folding and it's cost more than the $20/25 c-bet...

Sigh, I know nowt

[jakally]

Your line looks so much like it could be AQ, therefore if he's decent it's unlikely he's doing this with air.
I guess then you are hoping he's overplayed 2 pair, but it doesn't seem likely.

It's probably a fold, but I end up sigh-calling these spots more often than not.

[SuuPRlim]

Do we not c-bet this flop?
Only one over card, oppo needs a K or some hearts to call. Or is that just too obvious?

So you want him to fold when we bet? That means you're bluffing? You're saying we can only get called by a K or flush draw. Which is exactly why I didn't bet. We don't fold out anything we beat by betting, and we don't get called by much worse. Checking is uber standard.

there is nothing wrong with betting for "protection" I know it's an old school theory us young'uns laugh at but protecting our equity and denying our villain his are both under-rated - we don't have to be betting to make better hands fold or worse hands call 100% of the time, when can just bet because we don't want to have to turn the best hand into a bluff catcher vs hands with some equity all the time

Also we would 100% bet a Khigh board with air so it's a good spot to de-polarise our c-bets, agree for sure we should check a decent amount as well so we have some strong hands on the turn after we've checked the flop.

As played I'd hate life and click the call btn.

[Skippy]

Do we not c-bet this flop?
Only one over card, oppo needs a K or some hearts to call. Or is that just too obvious?

So you want him to fold when we bet? That means you're bluffing? You're saying we can only get called by a K or flush draw. Which is exactly why I didn't bet. We don't fold out anything we beat by betting, and we don't get called by much worse. Checking is uber standard.

Surely not? I'm c-betting for the following reasons:

1) If someone calls my 3-bet out of position, I'm c-betting 100%. I want to punish out of position c-betters. I'm always c-betting unless the flop is something really unpleasant like  
2) Here you need to protect your hand. Don't give free cards to hands that might beat you. There is very likely going to be more cards above a 10 before showdown, and that's going to suck. What are you going to do when he leads at this turn? You're going to need to get the cape out. You've built a reasonable pot pre, and you now have a mediocre hand. Take it down now, put the chips in your stack, next hand please.

[Bully87]

Interesting to see what he actually had. Such a small 4b is never a bluff but could still easily have worse.

Wouldn't 3b pre, post is fine, if I raised the river for value then I don't tend to fold to such a small raise but I'm not a pro.

[Skippy]

Do we not c-bet this flop?
Only one over card, oppo needs a K or some hearts to call. Or is that just too obvious?

So you want him to fold when we bet? That means you're bluffing? You're saying we can only get called by a K or flush draw. Which is exactly why I didn't bet. We don't fold out anything we beat by betting, and we don't get called by much worse. Checking is uber standard.

Surely not? I'm c-betting for the following reasons:

1) If someone calls my 3-bet out of position, I'm c-betting 100%. I want to punish out of position c-betters. I'm always c-betting unless the flop is something really unpleasant like  
2) Here you need to protect your hand. Don't give free cards to hands that might beat you. There is very likely going to be more cards above a 10 before showdown, and that's going to suck. What are you going to do when he leads at this turn? You're going to need to get the cape out. You've built a reasonable pot pre, and you now have a mediocre hand. Take it down now, put the chips in your stack, next hand please.

I wrote this before lildave agreed with me, honest.

[rbc_mike]

Replies were written before this, so just wanted to add some more to the discussion.

Are you ever checking back AK, AA, KK, Ax heart combos,  back on the flop for balance in this spot? Seems like checking back makes our hand look like exactly what is it, like 55-QQ.  Would you say over 1.8k hands you have a balanced checking back range against this villain on this type of dry board?  Obvs understand your reasons for checking, but I feel we can still get value from his pocket pairs, ace-high oop floats (not much of his range imo), a4ss, a3ss if we c-bet flop, and as was already mentioned we would always barrel this flop with air.

On turn, when we check back again what does our hand look like now? very much pocket pairs, hands that we want to get to showdown cheaply with. think we are always betting jj here, and all of those AK, AA, KK, Ax heart combos that we could have perceivably checked back on the flop with, as we want to get value from our hand/our hand is underrepped so he may peel lighter oop.

So now when we raise this river, given that we didn't bet either flop or turn, what does our hand look like? Imo we can never really have aa, kk, jj, ak, kq, kj kind of hands given the turn and flop action. We can have qq, tt, 99, 88 and lower pocket pairs. Villain bets river, what range do we put him on? Can be value betting any king from his perspective if he puts us on qq-55/66, can have aq obvs, could have jt but hard to have that with 3 tens used up. villain having jj is possible.

If our hands look like qq-66, and we think he is v-betting thinly i.e. any king, then theoretically we are not raising the river for value with a range of 55-qq. we would be identifying the villain's perceived value range and trying to specifically get him off a king with a bluff raise. if we are taking this line, he is not going to bet-3bet knowing this, he would just call as there is no value in trying to get a spazzout 4bet with stacks this shallow now, plus with no fe he can't turn his hand into a bluff really.

So he never has a king on the river, obvs. jj is never folding after the action on flop and turn, and probs bet-3betting as you hardly ever have kk and can have tt, kt etc.  aq is the nuts, so villain is obvs always bet-3betting that.

In conclusion, his hand can NEVER be a bluff imo, and we are sigh folding the river.

[cambridgealex]

hmm ok not checking back 100% of the time, but over 50% i'd say.

He had AQ of course. Should probably fold.

[rbc_mike]

3 bet pre is pretty awful

why is 3betting TT bad in this spot?