My tennis betting diary

[Solaris]

I'd be interested to know why you are backing Urszula Radwanska.

Great thread, btw.

Vania King has to have one of the worst serves in women's tennis. She has a positive 2-0 h2h vs Urszala but their last match was the back end of 2010 so not much to read into that at all. In King's last match she played Paula Ormaechea; to say Ormaechea was pretty much exclusively a clay-courter would almost be the world's biggest understatement (http://tennis.matchstat.com/Player/-9331). She still managed to get broken 4 times and give up 10 break point opportunities to the sort of player she should be blowing away 6-1, 6-1.

Radwanska on the other hand beat Benesova a player ranked 54th, 6-4, 6-1. She gave away 1 break point opportunity which to a player ranked 50+ places higher than you is impressive - especially in the WTA.

Can see why King is the marginally the favourite, but not at the odds she currently is betting at. She should be a great deal shorter than she is imo which mades Radwanska great value.

There's a few player I love to oppose on the WTA and King is definitely one of them.

[FUN4FRASER]

I think its only a matter of time before  Jo - Wilfred Tsonga  at fancy prices will break through on hard surface courts this year...Australian Open  first ( 22 -1  ) then the US open later in the year

Maybe let me know what you think Solaris please  ? and any other hard court tournaments / surfaces  he may enter

http://www.oddschecker.com/tennis/australian-open/mens-australian-open/winner

People have been saying that for a long, long time. He'd be a decent e/w bet provided he's not in Novak's half of the draw. Can't look past Djokovic right now, he's just so far above the rest it's scary. I'm yet to see any evidence that the rest are close to catching him up. This will be Tsonga's last tournament before the Aussie Open. Generally speaking nobody who has a chance of winning it would ever consider playing the week before.

Tsonga's best chance of winning titles will be the few tournaments straight after the Aussie Open and towards the back end of the season when they switch to an indoor hard surface. He tends to play best on these surfaces. His record last year on them was 22-6 with wins in Metz, Vienna and finals in Rotterdam, Paris and the World Tour finals. Tellingly he didn't make a single hard-court final last year and his record was 18-9.

I like the guy a lot, but he always falls short and I see no reason why that's going to change. This week alone Tsonga has made a really easy draw unnecessarily difficult. Provided I can get a decent price I will be backing Monfils today.

Okay thanks for that...I think 22 - 1 is big though ..I think it will be a profitabe policy backing him out right for every tournie  (not clay or grass ) this year

Dont bet against the Tsonga 

[Solaris]

Zheng @ 9/4 v Pennetta (2 units) WON + 4.5 units
Safarova @ 6/4 v Ivanovic WON + 1.5 units
Oprandi @ 10/11 (3 units) WON + 2.73 unit
Cirstea @ 11/10 v Pervak WON + 1.1 units
Zakopalova @ 10/11 v Halep (2 units) LOST - 2 units
U Radwanska @ 11/8 v King (2 units) VOID

Profit: 7.83 units

Cibulkova @ 5/6 v Peng (2 units) PENDING Cibulkova *4-3 up final set.

Pre-match profit: 156.5 (+ 6.5)
In-play profit: 13 units

Total profit: 19.5 units

[Solaris]

Cibulkova @ 5/6 v Peng (2 units) PENDING Cibulkova *4-3 up final set.

Pre-match profit: 156.5 (+ 6.5)
 
In-play profit: 13 units

Total profit: 19.5 units

Granollers @ evens v Ebden (2 units)
Granollers to win 2-0 @ 5/2
Oprandi @ 6/4 v Barthel
Scheepers to win 2-0 @ 6/5 v Czink (2 units)
Vinci @ 6/4 v Hantuchova
Pavlyuchenkova @ 8/5 v Petkovic
Watson @ 11/10 v Pironkova
Morita @ 6/5 v Gajdosova (2 units)

[MereNovice]

Cibulkova @ 5/6 v Peng (2 units) PENDING Cibulkova *4-3 up final set.

Pre-match profit: 156.5 (+ 6.5)
 
In-play profit: 13 units

Total profit: 19.5 units

Granollers @ evens v Ebden (2 units)
Granollers to win 2-0 @ 5/2
Oprandi @ 6/4 v Barthel
Scheepers to win 2-0 @ 6/5 v Czink (2 units)
Vinci @ 6/4 v Hantuchova
Pavlyuchenkova @ 8/5 v Petkovic
Watson @ 11/10 v Pironkova
Morita @ 6/5 v Gajdosova (2 units)

Good luck with those WTA picks.

[Solaris]

Good luck with those WTA picks.

Don't fancy any of them then? 

[FUN4FRASER]

Good luck with those WTA picks.

Don't fancy any of them then? 

Good profit so far well done

Any chance you could have " a bet of the day " ? please

As it stands I cant keep track of your tennis madness   

[MereNovice]

Good luck with those WTA picks.

Don't fancy any of them then? 

Vinci and Pavlyuchenkova strike me as "brave" selections.

Can't fault you on your previous selection of Urszula Radwanska though - she didn't concede a point.  
I have no idea where her win over Benesova came from. Either she has made a quantum leap over the close season or Benesova was well below par.

Really enjoying looking at your choices - it's giving me a different perspective on the game.

[Solaris]

Good luck with those WTA picks.

Don't fancy any of them then? 

Good profit so far well done

Any chance you could have " a bet of the day " ? please

As it stands I cant keep track of your tennis madness   

Will from tomorrow onwards. Most of my selections tonight are just about the underdogs but I wouldn't back any with the sort of certainty that I felt about yesterday's selections which is why I've lowered my stakes.

My pick for tonight would be Chanelle Scheepers to win 2-0 in sets. Czink went through a tough 3 setter yesterday in which both herself and her opponent, were seemingly incapable of winning a single service game without it going to deuce, so I'd expect Scheepers to win pretty comfortably.

Will have a NAP of the day from now on when and where I can.

[Solaris]

Good luck with those WTA picks.

Don't fancy any of them then? 

Vinci and Pavlyuchenkova strike me as "brave" selections.

Can't fault you on your previous selection of Urszula Radwanska though - she didn't concede a point.  
I have no idea where her win over Benesova came from. Either she has made a quantum leap over the close season or Benesova was well below par.

Really enjoying looking at your choices - it's giving me a different perspective on the game.

Part of the thought process with selecting Vinci is that often a player has a huge hangover going from week to week tournaments when they've run deep the previous week. Admittedly with Hantuchova getting a walkover vs Serena, Clijsters pulling out after a set and then getting mauled by Kanepi there's a good chance she might still feel very fresh. That said I'm willing to oppose her for that reason. I also don't massively rate her either which helps! Don't feel she has many weapons and it'll be a good match up for someone like Vinci.

Don't blame you for being a bit skeptical with regards to my Pav pick. Don't want to say too much as I may end up looking stupid but I intend to watch the match tonight and shall report back!

[MereNovice]

Any thoughts on why Zvonareva is available at 11/13 to beat Kuznetsova?
Apart from it being Zvonareva's first game of the year, it looks a pretty easy match for her.
Kuznetsova's 7-4 H2H advantage is all historic and irrelevant.

[Solaris]

Any thoughts on why Zvonareva is available at 11/13 to beat Kuznetsova?
Apart from it being Zvonareva's first game of the year, it looks a pretty easy match for her.
Kuznetsova's 7-4 H2H advantage is all historic and irrelevant.

Market's tend to be cautious at the start of the season, especially as Zvonareva had a should problem towards the back end of last year that kept her out of the Fed Cup.

I'd expect her to win too, but I'm tend to veer away from backing players in their first match of the season. Do think she offers some value, but it's not massive.

Edit: If ever there was a perfect example of a game to trade in-play this is it.

[Solaris]

Cibulkova @ 5/6 v Peng (2 units) PENDING Cibulkova *4-3 up final set. WON + 1.66 units
Granollers @ evens v Ebden (2 units) LOST - 2 units
Granollers to win 2-0 @ 5/2 LOST - 1 unit
Oprandi @ 6/4 v Barthel LOST - 1 unit
Scheepers to win 2-0 @ 6/5 v Czink (2 units) WON + 2.4 units
Vinci @ 6/4 v Hantuchova LOST - 1 unit
Pavlyuchenkova @ 8/5 v Petkovic LOST - 1 unit
Watson @ 11/10 v Pironkova LOST - 1 unit
Morita @ 6/5 v Gajdosova (2 units) LOST - 2 units
Adding in-play: Granollers @ 7/2 v Ebden  (3 units) @ 1-6 first set to Ebden LOST - 3 units
Adding in-play: Schiavone @ 2/1 v Stosur (2 units) WON + 4 units

Pre-match profit: 151.56 (+ 1.56)
 
In-play profit: 14 units

Total profit: 15.54 units

Super tilting that the stream for the Watson match crashed so I couldn't trade out. She blew 4 match points too. FML.

@MereNovice: Sadly, you got the WTA picks right. Had been told there was a potential problem for Petkovic with an injury. Came from someone who knows a "source". Full of shite that bloke.  

That'll teach me for listening to others, never normally bloody do!

[MereNovice]

Cibulkova @ 5/6 v Peng (2 units) PENDING Cibulkova *4-3 up final set. WON + 1.66 units
Granollers @ evens v Ebden (2 units)
Granollers to win 2-0 @ 5/2 LOST - 1 unit
Oprandi @ 6/4 v Barthel LOST - 1 unit
Scheepers to win 2-0 @ 6/5 v Czink (2 units) WON + 2.4 units
Vinci @ 6/4 v Hantuchova LOST - 1 unit
Pavlyuchenkova @ 8/5 v Petkovic LOST - 1 unit
Watson @ 11/10 v Pironkova LOST - 1 unit
Morita @ 6/5 v Gajdosova (2 units)

Adding in-play: Schiavone @ 2/1 v Stosur (2 units) WON + 4 units

Pre-match profit: 155.61 (+ 5.61)
 
In-play profit: 17 units

Total profit: 22.61 units

Super tilting that the stream for the Watson match crashed so I couldn't trade out. She blew 4 match points too. FML.

@MereNovice: Sadly, you got the WTA picks right. Had been told there was a potential problem for Petkovic with an injury. Came from someone who knows a "source". Full of shite that bloke.  

That'll teach me for listening to others, never normally bloody do!

Adding in-play: Granollers @ 7/2 v Ebden  (3 units) @ 1-6 first set to Ebden

I'd feel more smug about my "predictions" if Zvonareva hadn't lost 6-1 6-2. 

As a general rule, I'll be backing Kvitova and Azarenka to rule the world this year although Azarenka may struggle in the heat in Melbourne.

[Solaris]

Greed massively got the better of me in the Granollers match. Had an excellent chance to trade out and blew it.

Also deserve Morita to lose too because of that.

MereNovice: Kvitova will be one to back for sure...but her odds will be extremely short. Be wary of that.

Too tilted to watch the last match and I'm super tired so going to bed anyway, suffice to say even if Morita wins and leaves me in a tiny amount of profit for the day I've still made some awful selections. Here's hoping she does.

Pre-match profit: 151.56 (+ 1.56)
 
In-play profit: 14 units

Total profit: 15.56 units

Anderson @ 4/7 v Mannarino (2 units) LOST - 2 units
Anderson to win 2-0 @ 11/8 LOST - 1 unit
Anderson - 2.5 games @ 19/20 LOST - 1 unit
Benneteau v Seppi to go to 3 sets 6/5 (2 units) LOST - 2 units
Schiavone @ 8/11 v Hantuchova (3 units) LOST - 3 units
Schiavone to win 2-0 @ 7-4 (2 units) LOST - 2 units
Mattek-Sands @ 10/11 v Cirstea (2 units) LOST - 2 units
Peer @ 5/6 v Hradecka (2 units) WON + 1.66 units
Peer to win 2-0 @2/1 WON + 2 units
Jones @ evens v Barrois (2 units) WON + 2 units
Rochus @ 9/5 v Kamke (2 units) WON + 3.6 units
Rosol @ evens v Ramos (2 units) WON + 2 units
Harrison @ 10/11 v Querrey (2 units) WON + 1.82 units
Paire @ 2/1 v Ferrero WON + 2 units
Hewitt @ 9/5 v Troicki LOST - 1 unit


P/L:   1.04

Anderson was an absolutely shocking choice by me. Been talking about not selecting players who are playing their first matches back and proceed to lose a chunk backing him. Very, very stupid of me.