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Golf Betting 2012
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Topic: Golf Betting 2012 (Read 128322 times)
Horneris
#5 BH
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Re: Golf Betting 2012
«
Reply #180 on:
February 09, 2012, 04:09:27 PM »
haha ChipRich, I didn't love showing you my phone,
I absolutely adored it
it pained me.
Also you forgot Chopra in America, you are on him @ 250s remember.
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tikay
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Re: Golf Betting 2012
«
Reply #181 on:
February 09, 2012, 08:02:16 PM »
Quote from: Karabiner on February 08, 2012, 06:02:10 PM
I've had a couple of stabs/darts at the euro-event which look decent enough value to me:
Manassero @70, and FMolinari @55, both in the BF win market.
Good luck everyone.
PS
Absolutely loving the pre-tourney course reports that Bobby1 is penning, quality stuff.
This, absolutely fascinating reading.
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T_Mar
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Re: Golf Betting 2012
«
Reply #182 on:
February 09, 2012, 09:00:09 PM »
fml watney bet wasn't matched, and he's off to a flyer, puke
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Horneris
#5 BH
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Re: Golf Betting 2012
«
Reply #183 on:
February 10, 2012, 04:56:06 AM »
The Lizard isn't playing this week so I am not playing this week.
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bobby1
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Re: Golf Betting 2012
«
Reply #184 on:
February 10, 2012, 06:34:09 AM »
Very little difference in the course averages for the three courses in the US after round one.
Spyglass Hill 71.19 ( 0.81 under par)
Pebble Beach 71.01 (0.99 under par)
Monterrey Peninsula 68.96 (1.04 under par)
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“The two most important days in your life are the day you are born and the day you find out why.”
Junior Senior
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Re: Golf Betting 2012
«
Reply #185 on:
February 10, 2012, 01:20:17 PM »
Quote from: Horneris on February 10, 2012, 04:56:06 AM
The Lizard isn't playing this week so I am not playing this week.
Who?
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sweet potata!
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Re: Golf Betting 2012
«
Reply #186 on:
February 10, 2012, 01:37:30 PM »
Quote from: Junior on February 10, 2012, 01:20:17 PM
Quote from: Horneris on February 10, 2012, 04:56:06 AM
The Lizard isn't playing this week so I am not playing this week.
Who?
I believe he is referring to Marc 'The Lizard' Leishman
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Horneris
#5 BH
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Re: Golf Betting 2012
«
Reply #187 on:
February 10, 2012, 03:23:44 PM »
Quote from: sweet potata! on February 10, 2012, 01:37:30 PM
Quote from: Junior on February 10, 2012, 01:20:17 PM
Quote from: Horneris on February 10, 2012, 04:56:06 AM
The Lizard isn't playing this week so I am not playing this week.
Who?
I believe he is referring to Marc 'The Lizard' Leishman
PGA Tour rookie of the year 2009. The very same.
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bobby1
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Re: Golf Betting 2012
«
Reply #188 on:
February 10, 2012, 11:01:22 PM »
So much for the pre tourney weather forecast. Wind and Rain came in this afternoon and was so strong on MP that they took the scorers off the course.
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“The two most important days in your life are the day you are born and the day you find out why.”
redarmi
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Re: Golf Betting 2012
«
Reply #189 on:
February 11, 2012, 12:54:36 AM »
Interesting comments on the 'course form' angle and prices. Agree with you that it seems very much as though some of the tipsters would tip those with good course form irrespective of price and in the case of most of the tipsters I feel as though twenty minutes looking at the form and I could pick three out of four of their tips with eight attempts sometimes. Feels to me a bit like years ago when the thing to do on Asian handicaps and/or NFL was to bet unders and and dogs and you could almost blindly make money and some of the 'judges' never really understood that the market changed and became more sophisticated and just kept blindly doing what they always did and ended up doing it all back. Angles like that are only worth something if they are underrated by the odds compilers and general public and it strikes me it might almost be worth backing those at the front of the market in form that have very bad course form these days.
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ChipRich
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Re: Golf Betting 2012
«
Reply #190 on:
February 11, 2012, 04:49:25 AM »
Have added Ryan Moore @ 65.0 after day 2 in the US.
Hopes relying on him -6, Barnes -6, and Points -5.
Sunday sweat plzzzzz
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bobby1
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Re: Golf Betting 2012
«
Reply #191 on:
February 11, 2012, 09:22:20 AM »
Course averages from the 2nd round. I think these need to be taken with a pinch of salt tho as the weather later in the day was much worse.
First two are par 72, MP a par 70
Spyglass played the tougher averaging 73.08 almost 2 shots harder than the1st day.
Pebble Beach 1 shot harder 72.11
Monterey Peninsula 1 shot harder 70.06.
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bobby1
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Re: Golf Betting 2012
«
Reply #192 on:
February 11, 2012, 01:18:29 PM »
Well Rory did what Rory seems to do a lot these days. Played great for 2 days and then when push comes to shove he was all over the place today.Kaymer has been striking the ball much worse than him this week but is currently 1 shot better off( edit: they are level)which sums them up really.
The wind is due to be up 2morrow and there are enough players near the top that are well suited by the wind, Gallagher, Bjorn ,Jamieson and Curtis to give the bigger names some trouble if it does blow hard.
I have a one man bogey in Cabrera-Bella, who is a bad result but the rest are good, he actually played very well tee to green today but had 35 putts, still in the wind fariways and greens might be good as prolly nobody will be holing much. Will see what the market is like later and might buy a bit back.
The US turned sharply last night with the late finishers getting stuck with the wind and rain that wasn't on the forecast. Mickelson somehow managed to shoot 5 under in those conditions on his back nine which was some going.
I have Dustin Johnson in the book already and have laid Charlie Wi too as he is a stack and tilt swinger and in the heat of battle I have yet to see anyone using that swing method look comfortable. Most players that switched to this in its heyday have taken a backward step and reverted to a conventional swing.
http://www.golfdigest.com/golf-instruction/2009-12/stackandtilt
My one concern is the weather might play a part again and I might have got him in early in the comp for the swing to desert him but will see how it goes tonight.
good luck us.
«
Last Edit: February 11, 2012, 04:27:06 PM by bobby1
»
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bobby1
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Re: Golf Betting 2012
«
Reply #193 on:
February 11, 2012, 01:26:10 PM »
Quote from: redarmi on February 11, 2012, 12:54:36 AM
Interesting comments on the 'course form' angle and prices. Agree with you that it seems very much as though some of the tipsters would tip those with good course form irrespective of price and in the case of most of the tipsters I feel as though twenty minutes looking at the form and I could pick three out of four of their tips with eight attempts sometimes. Feels to me a bit like years ago when the thing to do on Asian handicaps and/or NFL was to bet unders and and dogs and you could almost blindly make money and some of the 'judges' never really understood that the market changed and became more sophisticated and just kept blindly doing what they always did and ended up doing it all back. Angles like that are only worth something if they are underrated by the odds compilers and general public and it strikes me it might almost be worth backing those at the front of the market in form that have very bad course form these days.
Yes, that's it in a nutshell. Pre Keith Elliot course form led to good value a lot of weeks as they firms were all getting the same tissue's and if you did the work you could be on players that were too big. Since he highlighted that tho, the opposite now happens.
Now every tissue over values the course form because they know that the tippers will put up the players with great course form, they do and the short price gets even shorter.
Elliott, Chapman et al put up those very selections again this week and will probably do the same next week. The Northern Trust favours a particular shot shape as a lot of the holes turn the same way, Mckelson, Kevin Na, Baddely, Couples all have brill form there. Mick, Na and Badds are in good form at the moment too so they will be shorter coz of the good form and then shorter again because of the great course form.
On the TV prices angle we mentioned Red , there was another good examples was last night. Charlie Wi was one of the only players near the top of the boad playing on the TV course at Pebble Beach. In the clubhouse at -12 and 2 shots clear he was done at between 5.4 and 5.8.
After the round had finished and the market firmed up he is now 3 shots clear and available at 7.2.
«
Last Edit: February 11, 2012, 11:42:18 PM by bobby1
»
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ACE2M
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Posts: 7832
Re: Golf Betting 2012
«
Reply #194 on:
February 11, 2012, 01:34:49 PM »
Quote from: bobby1 on February 11, 2012, 01:26:10 PM
Quote from: redarmi on February 11, 2012, 12:54:36 AM
Interesting comments on the 'course form' angle and prices. Agree with you that it seems very much as though some of the tipsters would tip those with good course form irrespective of price and in the case of most of the tipsters I feel as though twenty minutes looking at the form and I could pick three out of four of their tips with eight attempts sometimes. Feels to me a bit like years ago when the thing to do on Asian handicaps and/or NFL was to bet unders and and dogs and you could almost blindly make money and some of the 'judges' never really understood that the market changed and became more sophisticated and just kept blindly doing what they always did and ended up doing it all back. Angles like that are only worth something if they are underrated by the odds compilers and general public and it strikes me it might almost be worth backing those at the front of the market in form that have very bad course form these days.
Yes, that's it in a nutshell. Pre Keith Elliot course form led to good value a lot of weeks as they firms were all getting the same tissue's and if you did the work you could be on players that were too big. Since he highlighted that tho, the opposite now happens.
Now every tissue over values the course form because they know that the tippers will put up the players with great course form, they do and the short price gets even shorter.
Elliott, Chapman et al put up those very selections again this week and will probably do the same next week. The Northern Trust favours a particular swing shape as a lot of the holes turn the same way, Mckelson, Kevin Na, Baddely, Couples all have brill form there. Mick, Na and Badds are in good form at the moment too so they will be shorter coz of the good form and then shorter again because of the great course form.
Chapman must have the easiest tipping job around, pick the favs and whoever won there in the last couple of years.
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