bobby.. When you "getting someone in the book" What sort of staking plan do you use for that?? Not interested in actual amounts just the theory of it... Are you trying to win a set unit stake in each case.. eg you lay 5 players pre tourney at varying prices from 10 - 50/1, are you laying them each to win the same unit stake? is that unit stake the same as you use if you were backing them
I guess in running you going to have to be much more flexble, trying to balance things out but be interested in the overall goal (obv winning monies), but from a staking point of view
Hi mate,
Sorry for the slow response, I am in Skegvegas for the week and typed a reply earlier on some ropey wifi that then cut me off.
Pre tourney, I usually lay all the players I want to get in to lose roughly the same amount. What that amount its depends on the quality of the event and the quality of the in running market liquidity wise. Major weeks I will happily lay them for 4-5 times the amount of a normal week coz if you need to take evasive action there is always decent amounts to play with. There is no value in having someone for say 5k in the Ballantines event last week and then finding at 5.30am during the last round that you want to get out of that possie and there is no liquidity there. Major week you wouldnt have any trouble getting out of spots much bigger.
The general approach is just to get the stakes in the book pre tourney then play it in running, mainly laying but sometimes betting. These pre tourney stakes give you some nice greens on the rest, so all the stakes in play just reduce the pre event libs and increase the greens on the others ( apart form the ones you lay, or if I increase the libs on the players already laid that I might lay again)
During the majors I have occasionally had half the bank in play but knowing I can bet some back if I feel uncomfy. Best example of that I can think of was the Masters two years ago, I laid Y E Yang during his second round as it was one of those days where he was out on course when most of the leaders weren't and I just thought he was too short at that time and laid him again and again. Three birdies later and 1 off the lead I had drawn up another plan and had decided to bet some back should he make another one and take my medicine, thankfully Amen corner got him and he faded away. From memory I had him for 25k at that stage but would have prob bet him back around 6/1 or 13/2 if he had made another birdie and put me into an all red book. Which is not ideal but I have the mindset that if it goes wrong try not to make it go really wrong. I wouldnt be taking that kind of lib on every week tho!
The best example I can think of it going right was the PGA last season, morale was high, I got Stricker in at about 3.3 after one round, Mcilroy hurt himself after only a few holes and I had him in too and had taken lots of stakes to the end of round three. I then couldnt believe how short Stricker was and laid him again. The tourney had loads of swings to it with from memory Dufner, Steele , Bradley, Hansen and Karlsson all having some part of the lead or 1 back.
Then a card of the course angle came in where Karlsson had negotiated the tough holes early on and was playing the 6th, where they had moved the tee forward, he had driven it close to the front of the green and knocked it close, I backed him at 40/1 there as the next few holes were easyish and the leaders still had to come thru the tough holes. The plan being to get rid of him again when he had gone thru the 12th which was then the next really tough stretch.
As it happened he got to the 11th and was two off the lead and now 8/1 and was a winner for 28k, I laid some back there, then again at 5/1 when he birdied the 12th and 10 mins later when a few had made mistakes he was 9/4. It was prob the best chance to win a load and I had traded it back too early from a price angle but in the end he didnt win and it was my best ever tourney so it was a good plan tho I cost myself a few quid but during each event I will call it bad and good a lot of times, hopefully it will turn out ok in the end.
One thing I don't do is to try and pick the winner. esp late in the event, I have abs no ego in play at all and don't feel the need to get it right every week, just trying to work some money thru the book and hopefully keep a % of it at the end. It might be frowned upon by more gambley ( that should be a word) types but I might just stop during the closing stages and level off the returns or losses, at that moment if you call it wrong its hard to rectify and I don't feel the need to call it right with so little time left. Tho I am not 100% sure that is the nut best strategy and others would just see how it lands every week, taking losses some weeks but winning more others I set out to try and win each week so am happy if I do, even if I have given a little back at the end.
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