Golf Betting 2012

[bobby1]

Why doesn't Donald play like this in majors?

Its a strange one isn't it, I am starting to wonder if its just a mental thing now.

btw The Ryder cup has a very different look to it now than a few months ago doesn't it.Some of the US players that would have been on the periphery then are in great form now.

[The Camel]

Why doesn't Donald play like this in majors?

looks like he has alot more self belief this year... think it will only be a matter of time before he does now, wouldn't of said that even at the start of this year really.

I mean he has never even contended in a major yet.

Pretty ridiculous for the world number 1.

Suppose Wozniacki is the same in tennis.

[bobby1]

Why doesn't Donald play like this in majors?

looks like he has alot more self belief this year... think it will only be a matter of time before he does now, wouldn't of said that even at the start of this year really.

I mean he has never even contended in a major yet.

Pretty ridiculous for the world number 1.

Suppose Wozniacki is the same in tennis.

I think he went out in the last group with Tiger one year maybe 6 or 7 years ago and made the mistake of wearing Tiger red which a few thought was a bit of a mind game tho it seems a bit daft really.

[The Camel]

Why doesn't Donald play like this in majors?

looks like he has alot more self belief this year... think it will only be a matter of time before he does now, wouldn't of said that even at the start of this year really.

I mean he has never even contended in a major yet.

Pretty ridiculous for the world number 1.

Suppose Wozniacki is the same in tennis.

I think he went out in the last group with Tiger one year maybe 6 or 7 years ago and made the mistake of wearing Tiger red which a few thought was a bit of a mind game tho it seems a bit daft really.

You think major courses don't suit him?

He seems like a bit of target golfer. Like alot of the American players from the 90s. drives is straight but not very long, brilliant iron player and good putter.

But hasn't got the length for Augusta or the creativity for links play.

[MajorMajor]

I layed a bit of Zach off when he went odds on around the 13th. It was too swongy so fannied out of it. Ridic on the last hole though!

[sweet potata!]

Ok I will back down on Zach, having looked into I would say he's just a smidge short!

I was just amazed when I saw the prices on BF, It was   Kuchar 17.5, Zach 17.5, Fowler 18, Dufner 21, Mahan 26

the other 4 in question are all pretty hot right now, so I couldn't see why Zach was in amongst them in the betting but his course form is very good and hes coming off a 2nd so all in all its just a bit skinny imo.

I agonised over it but ended up backing him yesterday, I think he should be clear fav really.. his course and current form is pretty obvious but I was looking at his stats for the players and he was 54th or something for putting, so did very well to come T2.. he's normally an excellent putter so if he can get back to norm then he going to take some beating here I think... its not massive value, but its a solid bet i reckon

Fair play mate, just skimmed back through this hoping that you did back him, obv you're not dumb enough to be put off by my opinions! Good shout.

[T_Mar]

Ok I will back down on Zach, having looked into I would say he's just a smidge short!

I was just amazed when I saw the prices on BF, It was   Kuchar 17.5, Zach 17.5, Fowler 18, Dufner 21, Mahan 26

the other 4 in question are all pretty hot right now, so I couldn't see why Zach was in amongst them in the betting but his course form is very good and hes coming off a 2nd so all in all its just a bit skinny imo.

I agonised over it but ended up backing him yesterday, I think he should be clear fav really.. his course and current form is pretty obvious but I was looking at his stats for the players and he was 54th or something for putting, so did very well to come T2.. he's normally an excellent putter so if he can get back to norm then he going to take some beating here I think... its not massive value, but its a solid bet i reckon

Fair play mate, just skimmed back through this hoping that you did back him, obv you're not dumb enough to be put off by my opinions! Good shout.

Ta m8... in some ways i find it more difficult working out if the guys at the head of the market are value or not in the golf, I think generally the head of the market is underpriced as they tend to be 'name' players or players with obvious course / current form combo, i prefered zachs chances to ricky / kuchar in this case and they were all joint favs pretty much which is what swayed it

[sweet potata!]

Seems a sound enough logic to me!

[T_Mar]

Seems a sound enough logic to me!

tbh I'm still pretty unsure whether the way I make selections is sound and if I  am actually finding value week to week - I am in pretty good profit since I started 18months ago, but its obviously not the same thing.  time will tell i guess

[T_Mar]

This weeks value / dodgepot  selections in the US are

Geoff Ogilvy EW @ 66/1 who has not been in great form all year but has been steady, he has improved in recent weeks also - his GIR stats have been average all year, but has been T5 and T8 in his 2 penultimate starts for GIR (not quite as good last time out) but still if he can hit that kind of form agaiin, should stand him well on this course and has played well here before.

Ryan Moore EW @ 55/1 Pretty obvious course / current form which normally means that the price has taken that into account, but I think the price is fair.. I was a little undecided but have gone with it.  There is probably a question mark over him when in contention, although he has won... But will worry about that if he's there or thereabouts on sunday

Also had a poke at Richard Green in Welsh Open, who generally seems to play tough courses well and hinted at coming back to form recently - 80/1 EW

[bobby1]

Seems a sound enough logic to me!

tbh I'm still pretty unsure whether the way I make selections is sound and if I  am actually finding value week to week - I am in pretty good profit since I started 18months ago, but its obviously not the same thing.  time will tell i guess

Your thought process seems spot on to me mate and you have nailed some nice winners.

[MajorMajor]

Tiger for me at 16s! Huge price! He's won 2 times in his last ten starts and loves it at Memorial. Also had a tickle on Webb and Watney. A little profit on Donald as a saver too.

European tour gone for Lewis, Oleson and Wood. Hoping one of the youngsters bags me a win this week!

[bobby1]

US Tour

Back on bent grass greens and on a course that usually has quality players winning it prob makes sense to look at the head of the market and at players that have done well here before. I have actually had what for me is a half decent ew bet pre tourney on Stricker for reasons I've put in Tikay's tips thread. The usual MO is to go thru it and find players I don't like or are imo too short and be against them, then throw a few darts at bigger prices I give half a chance to. This is a week I was almost waiting for as Stricker loves playing on bent grass greens and his game has been good on different types recently so his game seems in good nick.

Forecast is a bit tricky with the course firm and some rain forecast late on the first day and early on the Friday, I'm not that sure it will be detrimental to that part of the draw, in fact it might help to play on the softer greens after a bit of rain. The wind looks to be a little stronger on Friday afternoon and Saturday looks to be the windiest day, tho its not super strong.

Its a course with a deffo front nine/back nine bias tho. The easiest stretch of holes is around 5 thru to 9 and the 16,17 and 18th were ranked the toughest holes at last years event. Starting on the back nine and shooting level par there is prob as good as starting on the front nine and shooting 2 under.

Euro golf.

It's on TV for six hours the first two days and plenty of time for playing in running.  I haven't got involved at all tho I did fancy backing Noren who I have taken a few times recently as his game seems to have turned around nicely and he won here last year. The prob is he topped the US Open qualifying event this week and the price has shortened to one I don't think there is a lot of juice in now.

The one thing I can't get away from is in last years event the winds came up far stronger than forecast later in the comp and they prob made a mistake in not watering the greens enough as the third round was a lottery ( G Mac was leading after 2 rounds and shot 81 in the third round). It played tough and fast in the last round too so I would rather just play it in running after missing the Noren price.

good luck guys.

[sweet potata!]

I'm gonna follow the crowd in this one and see if I can get me a sweat this week

Stricker @ 36
Moore @ 65
Bradley @ 60

Should be good , crackin looking field.

[Karabiner]

Me too, well following Bobby1 as I didn't have a bet in the US so it's Stricker EW @ 30/1 1/4 odds 6 places.

In Wales I sort of have to give Sterne another shot as he is a C+D winner but he's missing a zero on last week's price, and I've also had a dabble on Willett.