Golf Betting 2012

[sweet potata!]

Excellent stuff mate, thanks, will have a good read of that course guide later.

That draw bias with the tough first 6 holes is pretty interesting too! Nice one.

[redarmi]

I will prob throw a few darts pre tourney but usually the best strategy for punting on the US Open is to not have a bet until after the first round as it has a history of being very difficult to come from behind on these courses so the ones that play well in the first round tend to be the ones to concentrate on.

No winner in the last 11 years shot worse than 72 in the first round

Why would that be?

[bobby1]

yes, its a funny one coz I am in running for the firm this week so I am prepared to ease players out gradually if they make bogeys on those holes.It even gets to the stage where if you bogey one of the first two you drift a little but if you then par the next three you are prob a shorter price than you were pre tourney after going +1 thru 5.

I am wondering if it makes sense not to bet someone pre tourney that you fancy but starts at the first hole and see if a bad start gets an over reaction by some firms. If you fancy someone that starts on the back 10 then it might make sense to bet them pre tourney as they are more likely to get over cut if they do reach the turn in a few under par.

[horseplayer]

this was put up by bettingzone earlier

US Open winner to come from final pairing at evens (Sky Bet).

no good to me and i suspect most here but as explained there looks a rick to me

[sweet potata!]

yes, its a funny one coz I am in running for the firm this week so I am prepared to ease players out gradually if they make bogeys on those holes.It even gets to the stage where if you bogey one of the first two you drift a little but if you then par the next three you are prob a shorter price than you were pre tourney after going +1 thru 5.

I am wondering if it makes sense not to bet someone pre tourney that you fancy but starts at the first hole and see if a bad start gets an over reaction by some firms. If you fancy someone that starts on the back 10 then it might make sense to bet them pre tourney as they are more likely to get over cut if they do reach the turn in a few under par.

These were the things going through my head too.

[bobby1]

I will prob throw a few darts pre tourney but usually the best strategy for punting on the US Open is to not have a bet until after the first round as it has a history of being very difficult to come from behind on these courses so the ones that play well in the first round tend to be the ones to concentrate on.

No winner in the last 11 years shot worse than 72 in the first round

Why would that be?

do you mean not coming from behind Red?

I think it's because most US Open courses have so few genuine birdie holes that once you get behind you have to go thru a lot of players to get back into contention on a course where birdies are rare. There have also been a few very big priced players in the payout places that had a couple of good early rounds and then stayed in contention.

Only 2 players that shot 76 or worse in the first round made the payout places in the last 11 years ( Chappell and Clark), tho Westy shot 75 and made it last year but last years course was very un US Open like with Rory smashing up a  few records.

[bobby1]

yes, its a funny one coz I am in running for the firm this week so I am prepared to ease players out gradually if they make bogeys on those holes.It even gets to the stage where if you bogey one of the first two you drift a little but if you then par the next three you are prob a shorter price than you were pre tourney after going +1 thru 5.

I am wondering if it makes sense not to bet someone pre tourney that you fancy but starts at the first hole and see if a bad start gets an over reaction by some firms. If you fancy someone that starts on the back 10 then it might make sense to bet them pre tourney as they are more likely to get over cut if they do reach the turn in a few under par.

These were the things going through my head too.

7th is a nice short par 4 so if you do decide to sit and wait it out on players starting at the first then betting them as soon as they are near enough to the pin on 6 might be the best plan.

[Karabiner]

I've had some good weeks on this course in the past just betting some of the the front-nine starters who have completed half a dozen holes in +1/+2 and laying after back-nine starters have played a few holes in -1/-2.

I reckon you can make some decent money simply trading that angle this week if you're dedicated and have a mind to.

[redarmi]

I will prob throw a few darts pre tourney but usually the best strategy for punting on the US Open is to not have a bet until after the first round as it has a history of being very difficult to come from behind on these courses so the ones that play well in the first round tend to be the ones to concentrate on.

No winner in the last 11 years shot worse than 72 in the first round

Why would that be?

do you mean not coming from behind Red?

Yeah that was what I meant.  Obviously with it being on a different course each time it wasn't a function of that so I wasn't sure what drove it.  Is the course set up the responsibility of the same person or group of people and they make it harder on purpose? 

[bobby1]

I will prob throw a few darts pre tourney but usually the best strategy for punting on the US Open is to not have a bet until after the first round as it has a history of being very difficult to come from behind on these courses so the ones that play well in the first round tend to be the ones to concentrate on.

No winner in the last 11 years shot worse than 72 in the first round

Why would that be?

do you mean not coming from behind Red?

Yeah that was what I meant.  Obviously with it being on a different course each time it wasn't a function of that so I wasn't sure what drove it.  Is the course set up the responsibility of the same person or group of people and they make it harder on purpose? 

The USGA have it in their heads that their championship should be a real test of golf and the courses chosen and their superintendents are aiming to make around par the winning score most years. Congressional had the perfect storm last year to make it play more like a usual US course tho.

This  is deffo irrelevant now but the US Open has been held at Olympic 4 times now. in 1998 the payout places went down to 6 over, in 1987 they were 3 over, in 1966 it was 6 over again and in 1955 the payout places were +15 with + 7 being the winning score. In those 4 events only 4 players have finished under par so historically they love setting it up v tough when their turn comes around tho it looks like the rough might not be as penal as some courses on the rota.

The problem then is that the camber on the holes will take the balls to similar positions on each hole, the 5th for example needs a left to right shot around the dogleg but the fairway cambers from right to left, so a lot of the good tee shots will end up on the left of the FW or in the rough on the left and in between that spot and the green is a big  wide old tree right on the line of the green. So being in the rough there might not bring a problem with the lie but gives you a shot over/around a huge tree instead and it will just be tough not to end up on that side of the hole.

[bobby1]

US Open

The latest course report seems to indicate it isn't playing quite as tough as feared a few weeks ago with the rough cut back on some holes and plenty of watering. It will probably play easier in the first 2 rounds than it will at the weekend where they will have the option to either trick up the course or water to maintain. Prob at their discretion and how happy they are with the scoring.

Weather fcast is sunny all week with the wind speeds roughly the same each day except possibly a little window which might help us. The wind on Friday afternoon is the strongest of the week with the fcast at the mo for 20-30 mph, so it could be that a late on Thursday/early on Friday tee time is the best side to be. Friday afternoon could play harder and drier too if the wind is stronger.

Unusually the greens are bent grass which is unusual for the West coast and the US Open too ( the last 4 were played on Poa Annui which grows much quicker and is very tough to putt on in the afternoons) bent grass will run truer thru the day. Tho most of the good betting  previews mention players that have good West Coast records this is not a typical West Coast event.

They play a front 8 and a back 10 for logistical reasons and as mentioned before the first 6 holes is a very tough stretch, with the back 10 being more birdie friendly in places, tho it does have a 670 yard par 5 which Steve Stricker said was more like a par 6 as it has played into the wind in practice. Mickelson has hit nothing smaller than a 4 iron for his third shot here in practice so again it might be a real brute come Friday afternoon.

There could be an advantage in teeing off on the back 10 as getting under par and defending that score might be easier than getting beaten up on the first 6 and then having to birdie up to get back in to contention. If you are playing in running I suggest not to get fooled by a good score on the back ten or a bad score on the front 8, 2 over on the front might be the same as 1 under on the back.

So it might help pre tourney to take players that tee off at the ninth hole and are out late on the first day and with 5 of the last 6 winners also being first time major winners I have thrown a few darts at players that play well on tough courses and are looking to break their major drought.

Rose, has a nice draw and starts on the 9th tee( also has a good record on bent grass greens)
Kuchar, good draw and starts on the 9th. had a good finish here in 1998 too so a  bit of PMA with the course
Stricker, He played badly when I put him up the other week, but he likes the greens, and another that played well here in 1998
Pettersson, I really liked his chances on a course like this, most of his wins come on tricky ones, tho he is out from the 9th tee on Thursday morning so might not get the best draw come Friday which was a pity.

In truth tho I could have backed about 10 with Byrd and Hanson being crossed off due the price and a few others coz of the draw.Manassero might go ok too but tees off on the first so might throw a small dart in running if he gets thru the tough holes in ok shape.

What might be the nut best spot to have a bet is after round one as no winner this century has won a US Open after shooting worse than 72 in the first round. It is historically very tough to come from behind on courses with very few birdie chances on and even big priced players that started well and were still big prices managed to get a few wins and places. So if you can resist pre tourney that might be a good spot to get involved.

good luck us

[flushthemout]

my bets guys.............Matt Kuchar at 25/1, Charles  Schwartzel at 50/1, Zach Johnson at 40/1 all £20.00 each way, just a bit of interest, My only claim to golf is i played Pebble beach 10yrs ago!!!!!
               

[Karabiner]

I've taken some of the 10/1 Tiger and have a hunch that Harrington might continue to improve this week as his recent results have been encouraging so I'm on in the win market @ 95 and the top-5 @ 20.

I also nabbed a little 250 Toms in the win market.

GL

[Nico29]

Awesome write up bobby.

[bobby1]

Thanks Nico and good luck everyone