Golf Betting 2012

[bobby1]

I typed up a huge preview that basically said I had no idea which side of the draw would be favoured but there seems sure to be a bias with so many T storms on the forecast, the grass type is used so infrequently that it was impossible to know much about it other than it putts nicely all thru the day. That big hitters with previous form on Pete Dye courses could be favoured and I found a few interesting stats on various sites, the last 5 winners all finished top 25 at the Bridgestone the week before the PGA. Of the last 13 winners 12 of them had won a tourney earlier that season too. I then split the top 25 from last week into the ones that had the worst of the draw in the first 2 rounds which left 9 players.

Bill Haas
Bubba Watson
Matt Kuchar
Charl Scwartz
Keagan Bradlley
Jason Dufner
Justin Rose
Luke Donald
Bo Van Pelt

So basically most of the fancied runners anyway. It might help trim it down a touch tho.

Then I did a long bit about Pet Dye courses and players that have the best records on them, mainly from this link. With the lowest stroke average being v interesting

http://www.pgatour.com/2012/r/08/07/dye-courses-best-players/index.html

Then I dropped my cup on the keyboard and when I looked up the whole bloody lot had disappeared so now I have got the hump and this is the short version.

So big  hitters that draw the ball that get lucky with the weather that have good form on Pete Dye courses( he is the marmite of designers so it could be a good guide) that had a top 25 last week( possibly from the worst side of the draw) that have already won this season and might have played well at the 2010 PGA on another Dye designed course might be the ones to concentrate on. The problem is almost every tipper has got the same idea and they have all got shorter in the betting.

I could easily have backed the same 4 players I did last week for some of the reasons above but in the end I plumped for these four but only v small as there are far too many unknowns going into the event.

Bubba Watson ( the prob is I am not sure I would bet him at the price he is now). He has won 2 of his 3 regular PGA titles on Dye designed courses, he was top 25 last week from the worst draw, he has won this season and almost won the 2010 PGA on another Dye course( lost in a play off). He hits it miles with what would be a draw for a right hander and comes in second on the list of lowest averages on Dye courses.

Oosthuizen Just playing v well at the moment and fits many of the criteria above, tho he couldn't really have much of a record on Dye designed courses as he hasn't played that many. Has a good recent major record and won't mind the heat or the breeze.

I took a punt on Bill Haas too as he is coming back into form, hits it long and should love the course, A winner this season and last years Fedex cup winner and he fitted a lot of the profiles being talked of but was a much bigger price.

Dustin Johnson looked abs rock solid but his price has shortened so much that I would rather back Rory Mcilroy win only at 20 than him at 25. Rory claimed last week to have found something on the driving range and had a top 5 finish after being +3 for his first 4 holes. He hits it long with a draw which looks perfect and the way the course is set up means the winds should be either behind or into which shouldn't hinder him as much as he claims cross winds do. He also had a high finish in the 2010 PGA on a Dye course and couldn't have a bigger record on them as he also won't have played that many.


good luck everyone

abs top tekkers on nicking the 330 on Palmer T Mar

[Karabiner]

After seeing the course desribed as "brutal" by several players I've added Pod Harrington @ 70 to my merry little band as the tougher the course and challenging the conditions the more Pod relishes the battle.

GL

[bobby1]

After seeing the course desribed as "brutal" by several players I've added Pod Harrington @ 70 to my merry little band as the tougher the course and challenging the conditions the more Pod relishes the battle.

GL

Hi Ralph,

There does seem to be a trend every major when some players talk about how tough the course is going to be in places. This then seems to get the kind of headlines that we saw before the Open when Tiger said the rough was brutal in places but most of the articles called the course brutal which wasn't what he said at all.

I think maybe some of the players have realised that by saying the courses are playing v tough or brutal then they are exerting a bit of pressure on the course superintendents to get a bit nervy and not go to the extremes of the course.

Kiawah is rated the hardest course in the US and is the longest course they have used but this rating is taken when it is played in the conditions it has most of the year, strong winds. the forecast this week is for minor winds in relation to what they can get and almost every hole has numerous tee boxes so they can make some of the holes play almost 100 yards different. One or two of the par 4's could almost be drivable from the front tees which I guess they will use one of the days and a lot if the fairways are so wide even I might hit a few of them.

All in all I think there is a bit of mind games and some really sloppy reporting going on, the spreads have the winning score in at about 10 under par and i've also seen that figure put forward as the winning score elsewhere too so unless the wind strength changes I think this might be another case of it's difficulty being overblown.

[Karabiner]

After seeing the course desribed as "brutal" by several players I've added Pod Harrington @ 70 to my merry little band as the tougher the course and challenging the conditions the more Pod relishes the battle.

GL

Hi Ralph,

There does seem to be a trend every major when some players talk about how tough the course is going to be in places. This then seems to get the kind of headlines that we saw before the Open when Tiger said the rough was brutal in places but most of the articles called the course brutal which wasn't what he said at all.

I think maybe some of the players have realised that by saying the courses are playing v tough or brutal then they are exerting a bit of pressure on the course superintendents to get a bit nervy and not go to the extremes of the course.

Kiawah is rated the hardest course in the US and is the longest course they have used but this rating is taken when it is played in the conditions it has most of the year, strong winds. the forecast this week is for minor winds in relation to what they can get and almost every hole has numerous tee boxes so they can make some of the holes play almost 100 yards different. One or two of the par 4's could almost be drivable from the front tees which I guess they will use one of the days and a lot if the fairways are so wide even I might hit a few of them.

All in all I think there is a bit of mind games and some really sloppy reporting going on, the spreads have the winning score in at about 10 under par and i've also seen that figure put forward as the winning score elsewhere too so unless the wind strength changes I think this might be another case of it's difficulty being overblown.

I actually saw Roger Chapman being interviewed having played yesterday with Jim Furyk.

He was the one who said that Furyk described it as "brutal" but that could of course have been down the the weather conditions at the time when they played their practice round rather than the course itself. Probably a combination of both if you ask me.

[bobby1]

Hi mate,

I saw a piece on  Luke Donalds Tuesday practice round and as they teed off it was gusting at about 25 mph, they played the next 3 hours in almost no wind and then the last two holes in 25 mph gusts again. He came off and said in the stronger winds it played really tough especially the last two holes. the presenter preceded the piece with ' Donald says the final stretch at  Kiawah is very tough' but when the interview came on Donald actually said the course was gettable in places but tough if the wind got up down the stretch so it could have been a headline saying Donald thought it was gettable in the right conditions but they chose to highlight a few holes he played at their hardest which looked really misleading when they ran the tape.   

I hope it does blow a bit stronger tho, i like to see it like that.

[MajorMajor]

I'm on rory quite big (for me) EW.... Think the boy will come good soon and blow a field away. Just hope he stays at 20s for every event!

[tikay]

I typed up a huge preview that basically said I had no idea which side of the draw would be favoured but there seems sure to be a bias with so many T storms on the forecast, the grass type is used so infrequently that it was impossible to know much about it other than it putts nicely all thru the day. That big hitters with previous form on Pete Dye courses could be favoured and I found a few interesting stats on various sites, the last 5 winners all finished top 25 at the Bridgestone the week before the PGA. Of the last 13 winners 12 of them had won a tourney earlier that season too. I then split the top 25 from last week into the ones that had the worst of the draw in the first 2 rounds which left 9 players.

Bill Haas
Bubba Watson
Matt Kuchar
Charl Scwartz
Keagan Bradlley
Jason Dufner
Justin Rose
Luke Donald
Bo Van Pelt

So basically most of the fancied runners anyway. It might help trim it down a touch tho.

Then I did a long bit about Pet Dye courses and players that have the best records on them, mainly from this link. With the lowest stroke average being v interesting

http://www.pgatour.com/2012/r/08/07/dye-courses-best-players/index.html

Then I dropped my cup on the keyboard and when I looked up the whole bloody lot had disappeared so now I have got the hump and this is the short version.

So big  hitters that draw the ball that get lucky with the weather that have good form on Pete Dye courses( he is the marmite of designers so it could be a good guide) that had a top 25 last week( possibly from the worst side of the draw) that have already won this season and might have played well at the 2010 PGA on another Dye designed course might be the ones to concentrate on. The problem is almost every tipper has got the same idea and they have all got shorter in the betting.

I could easily have backed the same 4 players I did last week for some of the reasons above but in the end I plumped for these four but only v small as there are far too many unknowns going into the event.

Bubba Watson ( the prob is I am not sure I would bet him at the price he is now). He has won 2 of his 3 regular PGA titles on Dye designed courses, he was top 25 last week from the worst draw, he has won this season and almost won the 2010 PGA on another Dye course( lost in a play off). He hits it miles with what would be a draw for a right hander and comes in second on the list of lowest averages on Dye courses.

Oosthuizen Just playing v well at the moment and fits many of the criteria above, tho he couldn't really have much of a record on Dye designed courses as he hasn't played that many. Has a good recent major record and won't mind the heat or the breeze.

I took a punt on Bill Haas too as he is coming back into form, hits it long and should love the course, A winner this season and last years Fedex cup winner and he fitted a lot of the profiles being talked of but was a much bigger price.

Dustin Johnson looked abs rock solid but his price has shortened so much that I would rather back Rory Mcilroy win only at 20 than him at 25. Rory claimed last week to have found something on the driving range and had a top 5 finish after being +3 for his first 4 holes. He hits it long with a draw which looks perfect and the way the course is set up means the winds should be either behind or into which shouldn't hinder him as much as he claims cross winds do. He also had a high finish in the 2010 PGA on a Dye course and couldn't have a bigger record on them as he also won't have played that many.
good luck everyone

abs top tekkers on nicking the 330 on Palmer T Mar

For those that listened to Bobby, an interesting evening's TV is in prospect.

Good luck all.

[Karabiner]

I typed up a huge preview that basically said I had no idea which side of the draw would be favoured but there seems sure to be a bias with so many T storms on the forecast, the grass type is used so infrequently that it was impossible to know much about it other than it putts nicely all thru the day. That big hitters with previous form on Pete Dye courses could be favoured and I found a few interesting stats on various sites, the last 5 winners all finished top 25 at the Bridgestone the week before the PGA. Of the last 13 winners 12 of them had won a tourney earlier that season too. I then split the top 25 from last week into the ones that had the worst of the draw in the first 2 rounds which left 9 players.

Bill Haas
Bubba Watson
Matt Kuchar
Charl Scwartz
Keagan Bradlley
Jason Dufner
Justin Rose
Luke Donald
Bo Van Pelt

So basically most of the fancied runners anyway. It might help trim it down a touch tho.

Then I did a long bit about Pet Dye courses and players that have the best records on them, mainly from this link. With the lowest stroke average being v interesting

http://www.pgatour.com/2012/r/08/07/dye-courses-best-players/index.html

Then I dropped my cup on the keyboard and when I looked up the whole bloody lot had disappeared so now I have got the hump and this is the short version.

So big  hitters that draw the ball that get lucky with the weather that have good form on Pete Dye courses( he is the marmite of designers so it could be a good guide) that had a top 25 last week( possibly from the worst side of the draw) that have already won this season and might have played well at the 2010 PGA on another Dye designed course might be the ones to concentrate on. The problem is almost every tipper has got the same idea and they have all got shorter in the betting.

I could easily have backed the same 4 players I did last week for some of the reasons above but in the end I plumped for these four but only v small as there are far too many unknowns going into the event.

Bubba Watson ( the prob is I am not sure I would bet him at the price he is now). He has won 2 of his 3 regular PGA titles on Dye designed courses, he was top 25 last week from the worst draw, he has won this season and almost won the 2010 PGA on another Dye course( lost in a play off). He hits it miles with what would be a draw for a right hander and comes in second on the list of lowest averages on Dye courses.

Oosthuizen Just playing v well at the moment and fits many of the criteria above, tho he couldn't really have much of a record on Dye designed courses as he hasn't played that many. Has a good recent major record and won't mind the heat or the breeze.

I took a punt on Bill Haas too as he is coming back into form, hits it long and should love the course, A winner this season and last years Fedex cup winner and he fitted a lot of the profiles being talked of but was a much bigger price.

Dustin Johnson looked abs rock solid but his price has shortened so much that I would rather back Rory Mcilroy win only at 20 than him at 25. Rory claimed last week to have found something on the driving range and had a top 5 finish after being +3 for his first 4 holes. He hits it long with a draw which looks perfect and the way the course is set up means the winds should be either behind or into which shouldn't hinder him as much as he claims cross winds do. He also had a high finish in the 2010 PGA on a Dye course and couldn't have a bigger record on them as he also won't have played that many.
good luck everyone

abs top tekkers on nicking the 330 on Palmer T Mar

For those that listened to Bobby, an interesting evening's TV is in prospect.

Good luck all.

Rubz itt.

[tikay]

Poulter started with 4 straight birdies!

[tikay]

Crikey, make that 5 straight birdies!

[Karabiner]

Greengagaments @ 5.5 still wins me a chunk though...

[Tal]

I was happy for Mo Farah but I'm not having another @rsenal fan winning this weekend.

Come on Rory!

[Karabiner]

I was happy for Mo Farah but I'm not having another @rsenal fan winning this weekend.

Come on Rory!

If you'd have seen our final pre-season game v's Cologne today mate....

[ACE2M]

wtf, David Lynn coming 2nd at the PGA, I used to know his wife. well done lad.

[sweet potata!]

wtf, David Lynn coming 2nd at the PGA, I used to know his wife. well done lad.