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Author Topic: Tips for Tikay  (Read 16367582 times)
TightEnd
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« Reply #101265 on: May 17, 2015, 10:01:06 AM »

I'm going to get this one up nice and early and I expect it to cause a little debate.

Middlesbrough v Norwich

M'boro are 15/8, are they really 15/8 against a team they have already beaten twice this season. they've beaten them 4-0 and 1-0. They've also eased to an extent into the final against Brentford, whilst Norwich have had to endure 2 tough games against their most fierce rivals.

I think 15/8 won't be around matchday, but it is available in a couple of places (Betfred, Tote)

Suggest £40 M'boro at 15/8.



i think the reasons given are irrelevant. the two games earlier in the season, one months ago with Norwich in no form and under a previous manager...not an issue. the play off semi-finals are 10 days before the final. just not an issue whether a team gets to wembley in a close or one sided pair of semi-finals

that said, i like middlesborough too for this at the price. Tough team to break down and think Karanka is quite astute. no obvious reason for me that they would be underdogs

Ok, but why would the bookies get this wrong?

Neither of these are massively popular teams with the punters, are they? There's no gravediggers principle here where one team is getting all the money and the bookies split the handle, is there? Much accumulator money on Norwich they'd be eager to lay off?

I get the rationales as to why we think Boro will win but this is a one off game the bookies have sole focus on, as much information as us and can't really get the price that wrong unless we can find an angle.

Tell me otherwise, by all means.

i'm not disagreeing with you, just railing at the spurious reasons given to justify the bet

that said, we do well on premier league matches where everything is known, markets are efficient and prices are "right"

 
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« Reply #101266 on: May 17, 2015, 10:04:51 AM »

I'm going to get this one up nice and early and I expect it to cause a little debate.

Middlesbrough v Norwich

M'boro are 15/8, are they really 15/8 against a team they have already beaten twice this season. they've beaten them 4-0 and 1-0. They've also eased to an extent into the final against Brentford, whilst Norwich have had to endure 2 tough games against their most fierce rivals.

I think 15/8 won't be around matchday, but it is available in a couple of places (Betfred, Tote)

Suggest £40 M'boro at 15/8.



i think the reasons given are irrelevant. the two games earlier in the season, one months ago with Norwich in no form and under a previous manager...not an issue. the play off semi-finals are 10 days before the final. just not an issue whether a team gets to wembley in a close or one sided pair of semi-finals

that said, i like middlesborough too for this at the price. Tough team to break down and think Karanka is quite astute. no obvious reason for me that they would be underdogs

Ok, but why would the bookies get this wrong?

Neither of these are massively popular teams with the punters, are they? There's no gravediggers principle here where one team is getting all the money and the bookies split the handle, is there? Much accumulator money on Norwich they'd be eager to lay off?

I get the rationales as to why we think Boro will win but this is a one off game the bookies have sole focus on, as much information as us and can't really get the price that wrong unless we can find an angle.

Tell me otherwise, by all means.

i'm not disagreeing with you, just railing at the spurious reasons given to justify the bet

that said, we do well on premier league matches where everything is known, markets are efficient and prices are "right"

 

We tend to bet on underdogs or underbet teams (or both), like villa away at liverpool at a fancy price.

Just a funny one to scream value at, that's all. Obviously, if we think the price won't last (as Aaron suggests) and they go off at 5/4, different matter.
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« Reply #101267 on: May 17, 2015, 10:06:27 AM »

I'm going to get this one up nice and early and I expect it to cause a little debate.

Middlesbrough v Norwich

M'boro are 15/8, are they really 15/8 against a team they have already beaten twice this season. they've beaten them 4-0 and 1-0. They've also eased to an extent into the final against Brentford, whilst Norwich have had to endure 2 tough games against their most fierce rivals.

I think 15/8 won't be around matchday, but it is available in a couple of places (Betfred, Tote)

Suggest £40 M'boro at 15/8.



i think the reasons given are irrelevant. the two games earlier in the season, one months ago with Norwich in no form and under a previous manager...not an issue. the play off semi-finals are 10 days before the final. just not an issue whether a team gets to wembley in a close or one sided pair of semi-finals

that said, i like middlesborough too for this at the price. Tough team to break down and think Karanka is quite astute. no obvious reason for me that they would be underdogs

Ok, but why would the bookies get this wrong?

Neither of these are massively popular teams with the punters, are they? There's no gravediggers principle here where one team is getting all the money and the bookies split the handle, is there? Much accumulator money on Norwich they'd be eager to lay off?

I get the rationales as to why we think Boro will win but this is a one off game the bookies have sole focus on, as much information as us and can't really get the price that wrong unless we can find an angle.

Tell me otherwise, by all means.

i'm not disagreeing with you, just railing at the spurious reasons given to justify the bet

that said, we do well on premier league matches where everything is known, markets are efficient and prices are "right"

 

We tend to bet on underdogs or underbet teams (or both), like villa away at liverpool at a fancy price.

Just a funny one to scream value at, that's all. Obviously, if we think the price won't last (as Aaron suggests) and they go off at 5/4, different matter.

the price will last. no reason why it shouldn't

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« Reply #101268 on: May 17, 2015, 10:48:13 AM »

It's possible for prices to be correct and for us to still make a profit. Since Betfair came along, most prices are 'correct' at off time. Certainly true for racing. 2-1 shot win approx. one in three, 4-1 shots one in five etc. The graph is surprisingly symmetrical.

Is this the first time all three play-offs see third playing fourth in the final? (not the semi-final aaron).

I'm the same as you boys though, couldn't have the Smoggies as underdogs for this, but don't think the price is about to collapse. They'll be about the same on match day imo.
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« Reply #101269 on: May 17, 2015, 10:52:17 AM »

Have just backed Deckie Johnson for top jump jockey '15/'16 @ 11-10.

He's been picking up a lot of useful spare rides already and should be no bigger than 4-6.

Thread can have anything up to £50 of it.

we'll take this then. don't think it was confirmed yesterday
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« Reply #101270 on: May 17, 2015, 10:59:41 AM »

Have just backed Deckie Johnson for top jump jockey '15/'16 @ 11-10.

He's been picking up a lot of useful spare rides already and should be no bigger than 4-6.

Thread can have anything up to £50 of it.

we'll take this then. don't think it was confirmed yesterday

Take £100. He's now odds-on across the boards and the 10-11 still around in a few spots is decent, barring the usual worries about injury obv. Will stick it on the tab.
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« Reply #101271 on: May 17, 2015, 11:12:48 AM »

Have just backed Deckie Johnson for top jump jockey '15/'16 @ 11-10.

He's been picking up a lot of useful spare rides already and should be no bigger than 4-6.

Thread can have anything up to £50 of it.

we'll take this then. don't think it was confirmed yesterday

Take £100. He's now odds-on across the boards and the 10-11 still around in a few spots is decent, barring the usual worries about injury obv. Will stick it on the tab.

Yikes.

How much is the tab Mr W, please? (Exclude Vegas staking, think we should keep that separate).
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« Reply #101272 on: May 17, 2015, 11:18:47 AM »

In today's Lockinge a couple of bookmakers have gone 17 runners, let's go 4 places.  Given all the rags it looks a mistake.  There is loads of value in the race but could someone put a tenner each way on Arod with beteveryday at 25/1 for thread (Marky?).  I can't do it as I backed something else when I got up and the price has gone.  Don't want to be backing lots of different ones on one account.  Cheers.

Shy are also doing this offer and Toormore looks good at 10/1 also for those that can.  

They are basically giving you a free extra place, so maths says we must bet.

It is at Newbury, think it is 3.45.

Thread has got a tenner each way booked on Arod at 25/1.  Price was going. 

Thanks David, & for the Spready, I can confirm David has sent this cash across to me overnight.
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« Reply #101273 on: May 17, 2015, 11:28:30 AM »



A profit of £517 (on the day)

+£390 Stoke's point at Burnley secured their top ten finish and one of the biggest ante-post bets (£150 at 3.6) came in


+£52 Arod 3rd in the Lockinge at 25-1 each way behind night of thunder and toormore


* the monthly profit is to some extent a timing issue as the last premier league game sees ante-post losses of £350-450 to be taken, depending on results next week


Lovely news, thank you.

A shame Tighty & I were AWOL yesterday, as Doobsy tipped toormore, too, but not complaining, as he gave us the other one & even placed it for us.

That Stoke bet was a cracker, presumably down to Argue?

So we are close to £1,000 profit in the month, with the luxury of being able to absorb those expected losses of around £400 next weekend, so that balances nicely.

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« Reply #101274 on: May 17, 2015, 11:35:23 AM »



We are, temporarily, at a ROI of +5.15%, over a 4,755 sample size, which, it seems to me, is stunningly good.

Even better, forward liabilities are at their lowest I can remember for ages, at £2,400 or so. Even less after next weekend, & the finish of the football term bets. I know a pro punter would say the opposite - if we can make 5%, we should load up more, & I know that is logical, but I shudder when I see the figure, my Dad would think I'd gone mad.

I suppose as we do so much football stuff, especially season long bets, it's just part of the cycle.

We really could use Arsenal getting a result today, but I fear that loss to Swansea is going to prove very expensive.
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« Reply #101275 on: May 17, 2015, 11:37:31 AM »

Have just backed Deckie Johnson for top jump jockey '15/'16 @ 11-10.

He's been picking up a lot of useful spare rides already and should be no bigger than 4-6.

Thread can have anything up to £50 of it.

we'll take this then. don't think it was confirmed yesterday

Take £100. He's now odds-on across the boards and the 10-11 still around in a few spots is decent, barring the usual worries about injury obv. Will stick it on the tab.

Yikes.

How much is the tab Mr W, please? (Exclude Vegas staking, think we should keep that separate).

Including this £100, it's...£109!
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« Reply #101276 on: May 17, 2015, 11:37:45 AM »

Get your IFA on the case, get some money from under your bed and go for it Wink

More impressive results really is incredible tipping on this page.
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« Reply #101277 on: May 17, 2015, 11:44:50 AM »

Have just backed Deckie Johnson for top jump jockey '15/'16 @ 11-10.

He's been picking up a lot of useful spare rides already and should be no bigger than 4-6.

Thread can have anything up to £50 of it.

we'll take this then. don't think it was confirmed yesterday

Take £100. He's now odds-on across the boards and the 10-11 still around in a few spots is decent, barring the usual worries about injury obv. Will stick it on the tab.

Yikes.

How much is the tab Mr W, please? (Exclude Vegas staking, think we should keep that separate).

Including this £100, it's...£109!

Ok, will sort it later today.

I also owe Dazzler £20, & he sent me a PM as to details, so I'll sort that too.

Dread to think what I owe Marky Mark Mark.
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« Reply #101278 on: May 17, 2015, 11:54:42 AM »

Have £20 Cyprus to finish top five in the Eurovision please, 12-1 with BFSB
« Last Edit: May 17, 2015, 11:56:49 AM by Chompy » Logged

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« Reply #101279 on: May 17, 2015, 12:01:38 PM »

Have £20 Cyprus to finish top five in the Eurovision please, 12-1 with BFSB

orly?



Cyprus80/1Eurovision Song Contest - 19/05/2015
Each Way
Stake £20.00
Estimated Return:£1020.00
Total Stake: £20.00
Potential Return: £1020.00

e/w 1/4 1,2,3,4

before your edit. do you want me to do the top 5 instead?

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